Jake Price's Racing Tips for Saturday at Ayr Featuring Scottish Grand National

LE NEZ CREUX 1pt Win

Best price 6/1.

Gavin Cromwell enjoyed a successful raid on Aintree last week in partnership with Conor Stone-Walsh, and the pair look to have a great chance of repeating the trick at Ayr on Saturday with French raider LE NEX CREUX, who is making her debut for the Robcour team having ran to a very high level in France when in the ownership of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede.

Back in her early days under Bryony Frost she was quite a keen going Mare who going beat a few times when trying to do too much on the front end, but once Angelo Zuliani took over the reins he got her to settle much better, and over fences she ended up winning twice – including by 12 lengths at Auteuil in October where she beat Ocre by 12 lengths, and that rival won a Grade 3 on her next start.

That new more settled view on life is going to be required at Ayr on Saturday however, as there is so much pace on here. Sans Bruit, Palacio, Traprain Law, Calico, Moudan, Matata and Classic Maestro all like to make the running and/or race prominently, so whilst some will have to be forced to change tactics, there is going to be an almost guaranteed strong pace to aim at. That should work out perfectly for our Mare, who can hopefully stalk in behind and put her fantastic jumping to good use.

The reason Gavin Cromwell has targeted this race in Scotland is because the BHA use a different conversion rate to Ireland when dealing with French ratings. The 2.2x conversion in Ireland would give her a mark of 145, but the 2x conversion in Britain gives her a mark of just 132. Due to Matata running that also gives her the perfect bottom weight of 132, and the cut in the ground at Ayr means conditions could not be better for her stable debut.

KDEUX SAINT FRAY 1pt EW (4 Places) 

Best price 13/2.

I was rather hoping that Quebecois would turn up here rather than in the Scottish National, but in his absence a horse with good interlinking form is KDEUX SAINT FRAY, and he still remains extremely unexposed over this three-mile trip.

A theme of his successful campaign over fences has been that he has been running extremely well over intermediate trips, but I have always felt that he shaped as if he wanted a bit further to be at his absolute best. He fell three out on his debut at Cheltenham in October, but next time he very much made amends when beating Scottish National favourite Kim Roque (131) by 3 lengths.

When returning to Cheltenham on Trials Day he was sent off the favourite to win the ever-competitive Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase off a mark of 128, but this time he really did shape like he was crying out for further, as he got a bit outpaced and short of room before flying home for fourth. It was a good race won by Jordans Cross (140) with Quebecois (144) in second however, so he lost little in defeat.

Connections finally obliged in stepping him up in trip for the Premier Ladbrokes Trophy over three-miles at Kempton in February, and he was well supported in the market to oblige. Despite jumping out to the left at a right-handed track he ran a belter, sticking to his task very nicely under pressure when beaten just 2.5 lengths into third place. The winner Lookaway (149) very much boosted that form at Aintree last week when only just denied, and the second The Doyen Chief (141) is a rock-solid operator around Kempton.

Anthony Honeyball dropped him back in trip to 2m4½f for the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where you can forgive his 12th placed effort racing 1lb out of the weights, but stepping back up to three-miles on a left-handed track surely provides him with ideal conditions off his mark of 130. Sam Twiston-Davies is booked which is another positive.

TELLHERTHENAME 1pt Win 

Best price 5/2.

I could not believe what I was watching when I replayed the County Handicap Hurdle a few weeks ago and saw TELLHERTHENAME absolutely swinging on the wide outside of the field, before he was very much given an easy time of things to come home in his own time for 12th place but only beaten 7.5 lengths. When you combine those visual with a late drift in the betting from 14/1 out to 18/1 SP however, it is not hard to work out what was going on.

If you then look at the context of it being his first start with master plot trainer Dan Skelton following a 148 day break since running in the care of Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, everything adds up that they have only had one big day in mind for him; and the Scottish Champion Hurdle is clearly that day. Harry Skelton jumps aboard for the first time, a hood is applied for the first time, and he has been smashed in the Ante-Post betting. The only slight concern would be how much rain may fall, but even that might not be able to stop this talented horse off a tempting mark of 133.

ISAAC DES OBEAUX 1pt EW (5 Places)

Best price 11/1.

This is an intriguing renewal of the Scottish National as it is incredibly open, and full of horses who have questions to answer. Will Quebecois stay this far? Was King Of Answers flattered in the National Hunt Chase and does he have a stiff enough mark? Is Kim Roque an out-and-out stayer? Will Montregard improve for a test like this? The one who ticks all the boxes however is ISAAC DES OBEAUX, and he proved his stamina beyond doubt when bolting up in the Midlands National 35 days ago.

This Paul Nicholls inmate has always been well thought of at home and from an early stage he showed plenty of talent too – but he really flattered to deceive over fences when a lot was expected of him in that sphere. Perhaps at the age of 6 he was just too immature to thrive over the larger obstacles, but following wind surgery over the summer, he returned as a different animal as a seven turning eight-year-old.

On his first start of the season he showed plenty of promise at Cheltenham in a Listed Novices’ Chase when third to Wade Out and One Big Bang, and he built on that effort when finally getting off the mark over fences at Exeter in December – where he was met with bottomless ground and ploughed on through it to record an easy five length success off a mark of 127. He stepped up in trip to 3m2½f on Heavy ground at Wincanton in January where he was this time sent off the 9/4f to go in again, but a bad mistake at the fifth last took him right out of his rhythm. In the end, he had to settle for staying on second place behind the runaway Rivers Corner (129).

When stepped up to marathon trips for the first time at Uttoxeter last month I thought he put in a fantastic performance, travelling strongly and looking the most likely winner before the taps were

turned. Sam Twiston-Davies got him into a great jumping rhythm, and once he asked his mount for his effort he bounded clear up the run in – scoring by 8 lengths back to the very useful Rock My Way (138). Should he have had to carry the extra 7lbs that day that he does now then he still would have won, therefore I am keen to give him a chance of backing up on Saturday despite his new mark of 139.

TIMESAREACHANGING - 0.5pts EW 

Best odds of 10/1 available at SpreadEx at the time of publishing.

Apache Tribe may well take all the beating in this rave, but TIMESAREACHANGING drifted to a wild price this morning and so I wanted to wait and see if any support would arrive to support my view that he had as good a chance as any. That support has duly started to arrive now, and so it's time to get involved.

He managed to finish ahead of the talented Kalypso'chance (133) when last seen at Navan, where the two got into a protracted battle before Shabby Hill was able to run them both down very late in the day. Prior to that he placed at Grade 3 level when not seeing out the 2m7f trip on Heavy ground, and he also won a 2m6f Maiden Hurdle at Navan in January when ahead of Court Compliance (126), Thursday's winner He Can't Dance (123+) and Melbourne Shamrock (126).

Overall he has very solid mid-level Irish form, and he should love this 2m5½f trip on testing ground. I'd be disappointed if he wasn't good enough to at least fill the frame.