Everyone wants to hit the ground running when the National Hunt season kicks into gear, and I am no different.

A strong start from October can set the season up nicely for racing fans, potentially putting some much-needed pounds and pence back into the pockets following the summer holidays. And if you are anything like me, a wretched summer of punting on the Flat probably hasn’t done much to help the bank balance.

Hopefully, this guide will point you in the right direction when it comes to the early months of the National Hunt season. Which trainers have their horses ready to fire first time out? Which yards see their runners improve significantly for that initial pipe-opener? 

And, most importantly, which operations are undervalued by the betting market?

And in addition, I have offered a month-by-month guide highlighting the yards worth monitoring as the season progresses.

 

Change Your Betting Habits

Last season’s data tells us that adopting the same betting strategy month in, month out is a frivolous pursuit. Refining the way you approach the markets could prove a far more effective way of analysing races and ultimately lead to greater profitability.

For example, if you were a favourite backer during the 2025/26 season, it is highly likely that your pockets were bulging in November and March.

Backing every favourite across those months to a £1 level stake - which I know is impossible in practice, but bear with me for the purposes of this exercise - would have produced profits of +£37.00 in November and +£11.00 in March.

December, however, would have been a very different story. The same strategy would have resulted in a -£76.00 loss, before January inflicted a further -£78.00.

That’s a combined loss of £154.00 over the festive period.

Not a Very Merry Christmas.

Naturally, the racing calendar means there are more competitive races at certain points of the year. Based on last season’s results, those periods can offer greater opportunities to look further down the racecard for value and adjust your strategy if you are a punter who prefers to play at the top of the market.

There were 36 winners priced at 20/1 or bigger in December, while April produced an even greater number, with 43 horses sent off at 20/1 or bigger going on to land the spoils.

So, based on last season’s data:

Look towards the head of the market for value in:
October
November
March

Look for bigger-priced value winners in:
December
January
February

The key message is simple: don’t necessarily approach every month of the National Hunt season in the same way.

 

Who Will Be Ready When It All Kicks Off?

Willie Mullins and Closutton are an obvious place to start.

Although many of Mullins’ stars aren’t seen until we head towards the depths of winter, his runners arrive at the racecourse fit and ready to compete.

There is, naturally, a warning here. Mullins is likely to have plenty of runners in Maiden, Novice, Juvenile and Bumper races who have been bought for significant sums of money and are potentially facing inferior opposition. That can skew the figures. 

Irrespective of that, however, Mullins’ runners deserve a second look when making their seasonal debut.

The data from the last 10 years certainly tells that story.

Mullins has operated at a 30.30% strike rate on seasonal reappearance, based on 2,692 runners over the last decade.

Harry Derham and Nicky Henderson both share a 26.1% strike rate with horses making their first appearance of the season.

But there is a warning attached to Henderson.

Seven Barrows did not produce a winner during October last season, although only 11 horses from the yard went to the racecourse during the month.

Derham, by comparison, saddled 25 runners, with six visiting the winners’ enclosure, giving him a 24% strike rate.

Given that contrast, Derham is arguably the yard I would rather have on my radar when heading into the opening weeks of the season.

Sam Thomas is another trainer worth considering.

His operation has produced consistent performances throughout the last couple of campaigns, including back-to-back Welsh Champion Hurdle victories, before kicking on further in November last season.

At one point, Thomas was operating at a 38.5% strike rate and that isn’t produced from a small sample size having sent a double-figure number of horses to various racecourses by that point of November. 

And finally, we head to a yard in Alcester, Warwickshire.

No, not that one.

Olly Murphy put together four-timers on consecutive days at Perth and Worcester last year, with his horses in fantastic form during the early part of the season.

Murphy reached an incredible 41% strike rate from 44 runners, producing 18 winners and contributing significantly to his eventual seasonal total of 139 winners.

Murphy, alongside the aforementioned trainers, is therefore one of the names that should remain firmly front of mind as we head into the new season.

A Trainer Whose Horses Improve Second Time Out

Based on data from 2025, James Owen is a trainer who deserves particular attention when his runners appear for the second time during the season.

Owen operated at an overall strike rate of 22.3% for the year, but there was a clear distinction between the performance of his horses on seasonal debut and their second run.

His runners operated at a 17.8% strike rate on seasonal debut.

That increased significantly to 28.1% when backing his horses second time out.

His horses clearly benefited from that initial pipe-opener, meaning any Owen runner hitting the track for a second time should be noted.

 

Where’s the Value?

The value lives in Gloucestershire.

Joe Tizzard’s runners were hugely undervalued by the betting markets last season.

The Venn Farm operation sent 366 horses to the track, producing 55 winners, but it was the profitability of those runners that really caught the eye.

Had you blindly followed Tizzard’s runners to a £1 level stake, you would have finished the season with a whopping +£387.00 profit.

That was comfortably the best return among the yards examined.

Other trainers who would have helped to line your pockets included:

  • Gordon Elliott: +£137.00
  • Neil Mulholland: +£136.00
  • Dan Skelton: +£67.00
  • Nicky Henderson: +£38.00
  • Jamie Snowden: +£23.00
  • Paul Nicholls: +£21.00

 

There were, however, some yards that were considerably less kind to the bank account.

  • Gavin Cromwell: -£203.00
  • Henry De Bromhead: -£125.00
  • Russell & Scudamore: -£112.00

 

Once again, the lesson is that blindly following a trainer - or blindly opposing one - throughout an entire season isn’t necessarily the most effective approach.

The market can underestimate certain yards, while others may attract enough support to leave little value in their runners.

Hot Trainers: Month-by-Month Breakdown

To provide a more representative picture of each yard’s performance, the criteria for inclusion has been set at a minimum of 10 runs in each month, alongside a minimum strike rate of 25%.

Based on last season’s results, these are the trainers worth monitoring as we progress through the 2026/27 National Hunt campaign.

October

Olly Murphy - 41% SR
18 winners from 44 runners

Jamie Snowden - 35% SR
12 winners from 34 runners

Henry De Bromhead - 32% SR
19 winners from 60 runners

November

Jamie Snowden - 43% SR
20 winners from 47 runners

December

Gordon Elliott - 25% SR
39 winners from 158 runners

January

Willie Mullins - 31% SR
30 winners from 97 runners

Dan Skelton - 29% SR
27 winners from 93 runners

Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls - 27% SR
4 winners from 15 runners

February

Nicky Henderson - 32% SR
13 winners from 40 runners

March

Alan King - 28% SR
10 winners from 36 runners

April

Nicky Richards - 35% SR
8 winners from 23 runners

Nicky Henderson - 25% SR
12 winners from 48 runners

The Takeaway

The National Hunt season, like any betting pursuit, is a long game, and last season’s numbers provide a useful reminder that when and how you bet can be just as important as who you bet.

October looks particularly appealing for Olly Murphy, while November could be a month to keep Snowden firmly onside.

As winter arrives, the focus shifts towards the powerhouses of Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson, while the likes of Alan King and Nicky Richards become increasingly interesting as we move towards the spring.

And if you’re searching for a yard that could offer genuine value, Joe Tizzard’s operation is difficult to ignore following last season’s remarkable +£387 level-stakes return.

The Flat may have taken plenty from some of us over the summer, but a new National Hunt season brings a clean slate.

Time to get the notebooks ready, the ante-post markets loaded on screen, and start finding those winners. 

Data source: Race.Watch