Jake Price's Thursday Betting Tip For Maiden Hurdle at Perth

TIP 1: AR AIS ARIS - 1pt Win

Best odds of 7/2 at PricedUp while publishing.

The market only wants to know Dan Skelton’s Eastern Fire in this Maiden that kicks off a nice card at Perth on Thursday, but I wasn’t that taken by his Bumper form. He was well beaten by Rathkenny at Uttoxeter in November, and then at Fakenham in January he won a muddling race which saw him beat Lultimatom – who has not done much to frank the form since despite being trained by Willie Mullins for Gigginstown. To me his price shading odds-on is mainly due to the Skelton yard form, and whilst that might be enough at this stage of the season, I thought that AR AIS ARIS was the value play and looks an equally exciting prospect.

This horse finished second in a 4yo Geldings Maiden point-to-point at Boulta in November, where he was only beaten two-lengths by another Dan Skelton recruit in Old Coast Road – who was sent off the 5/4f for a Bumper at Chepstow over the weekend and was perhaps given a bit too much to do when finishing in second. The form of that point has also been boosted by the third however, as Merry Away has since won a Bumper at Warwick and finished fourth in the Grade 2 Bumper at the Aintree Festival for Ben Pauling.

Lucinda Russell spoke glowingly about this 5yo before he made his debut for the yard, and to me it seemed that running him at Perth in April was the last chance to give him a spin out on track before being sent off for his Summer break – as he was a non-runner at Hexham a couple of weeks before on the same type of ground. It was a nice Bumper effort in fourth that day however, as he lost his prominent position at a crucial juncture before staying on again towards the finish under an inexperienced ride. He was only beaten 2 lengths into fourth despite running fairly green, but surely going up in trip to 2m4f on some softer ground will be exactly what he needs.

Whilst Dan Skelton’s form in Novice Hurdles has been well touted over the past few days it is notable that Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore are doing very well with their Horses in this division too. In the past 14 days the duo have had 4 winners from 15 runners for a 27% strike rate, and three of those victories were in Maiden/Novice Hurdles. Hourman and Finisk Pride wouldn’t have the same sort of reputation as AR AIS ARIS yet both still won very nicely, so hopefully our selection can lay it down to the Skelton favourite here.