Aidan O'Hara has picked out his best bets from Saturday's racing action.
Meydan 2:20
Tip 1: Monteille - 1 Point EW (4 places)
Best odds of 35/1 at Paddy Power while publishing.
This is the first of many Group1 sprints this year which are a massive lottery each time. They suit me as there is often surprises, and so much luck involved that ones at the high end of the market can have a better chance than it seems of pure form, logic etc.
Monteille is one that catches my eye here, as over the years, I’ve often gone with French trained horses at this meeting to a decent effect. She looks a possible improver to me , having won really well in Chantilly last year long with Longchamp, before being heavily backed for the Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc day, only to be in the wrong spot in the race and having no chance.
She has had a break and a decent run here last time out on good ground, when on the complete wrong side of the track. I have her around the same level as the likes of Rayevka who is also in here and only 8/1.
The ground should be ok for my eye looking at her other runs, as should be the step up in trip from her runs last year.
The Fav really should be wining this, but how any times did we say that last year, only to have egg on our face time and again. The draw looks decent for my selection and the cherry on top of an extra place with a few of the bigger bookies makes it a nice bet here at a very big looking 33/1
BresBet
3:32 Doncaster
Tip 2: Metal Merchant - 1pt EW
Best odds of 66/1 at bet365 while publishing.
Theoryofeverything - 1pt EW
Best odds of 50/1 at bet365 while publishing.
There is a couple of possible group performers near the top of the market here, but I’m not convinced they have that much in hand, and certainly aren’t a bet at the prices.
I’ve gone for two real big priced each way shouts here to start of the Flat season, with 6 places on offer in a fair number of books
Metal Merchant, 2 years ago won the Spring Cup on his first run of the year on Good-Soft ground. He has a number of other very good runs that year and then had only 2 runs last year neither of which were anything to write home about. He has moved to a yard with history in this race, and if last year was the aberration it seems to be, I think he is a decent chance to get involved in the finish here. He has blinkers on first time as well today which adds to the positives.
David O’Meara is a trainer that has to be followed in these types of races, and he actually only has one entry. Theoryofeverything runs here for his first outing this year. He has a reasonable record fresh but a very good record on soft ground, which it may be near today. I looked at a number of his runs last year, and was left with the impression he will be winning a handicap like this during the year at some stage, if things drop right for him in a race. This mark is well within his grasp, and if he is ready to go here, he looks a decent shout to be involved in the finish, making the 50/1 price look value.
