Our racing expert runs through those at the top of the ante-post market for March showpiece
The National Hunt season proper maybe only a few weeks old, but with the Charlie Hall Chase and JKwine.com Champion Chase both taking place this coming weekend, thoughts start turning towards the blue riband at Cheltenham in March, as some of the bigger players awaken from their summer slumber.
The obvious starting point is last season’s renewal won by Sizing John and given that he’s still relatively unexposed and fairly low-mileage, there still could be plenty more to come from Jessica Harrington’s charge. Clearly the decision during mid-winter to step him up in trip worked wonders for the Midnight Legend gelding and he quite rightly heads the ante-post market to retain his crown based on his overall form. The slight negative comes from the fact you have to go back to 2004 and Best Mate to find a horse going back-to-back in National Hunt’s showpiece event and when you consider not even the mighty pair Kauto Star or Denham could achieved the feat, it just shows how difficult it is for any champion to stay at the top of his game, year in, year out.
The other dilemma facing punters regarding Sizing John, is whether he will actually end up being Robbie Power’s mount come March, as OUR DUKE (best price 9-1) may pose the Limerick-based pilot quite a few headaches during the course of the winter. Owned by the patient Cooper family, the decision by connections to bypass Cheltenham last year reaped the ultimate reward when their charge landed the Irish Grand National in spectacular fashion. For a horse so inexperienced, he jumped and travelled like a top-class prospect throughout the 3m 5f journey back in April and that performance should stand him in good stead for plenty of similar encounters in the future. Prior to that tremendous display, the son of Oscar had proven himself to be one of the best novices around when capturing the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas fixture, in doing so, lowering the colours of the very talented pair, Coney Island (previously won The Drinmore at Fairyhouse) and Disko (won the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown subsequently). Although he was beaten by the latter-named horse on his return visit to the Dublin track next time, he lost nothing in defeat despite just getting done for pace by the eventual winner over a trip short of his best. That said, one of the revealing features about that race back in February is that both Disko and Our Duke ran the last circuit four seconds quicker than Sizing John - who took the Irish Gold Cup over the same track half an hour later – so anyone who thinks the seven-year-old is short of pace, needs to think again.
Set to start his campaign off in the big Grade 1 at Down Royal this weekend, hopefully he will come through that race with flying colours and set himself up nicely for plenty of other big pots over 3m on home soil throughout the winter. A big, strapping old-fashion chasing type, Our Duke has all the right tools to become one of the best staying chasers around and he certainly couldn’t be in better hands to nurture him towards his ultimate target in March.
Over at Wetherby, both Coneygree and Cue Card will be hoping to markers down for themselves as they tackle Yorkshire’s big early-season prize. The former has been making all the right noises since his game effort behind Sizing John at Punchestown last year, it’s just a case of whether at the age of 10, he can get back to the sort of form which saw him carry off the trophy back in 2015. The latter needs no introduction to regular jump fans, as Colin Tizzard’s inmate has been a part of the tapestry of the winter game for many seasons. Still coming back for more despite rising twelve, it will be interesting to see whether he can stave off Father Time for another season at the highest level.
If Cue Card does bow out this season, Thistlecrack looks the natural successor to his crown at the Dorset base providing he can overcome the tendon injury he picked up when finishing a gallant second to the ill-fated Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase last season. Favourite at time of writing in most ante-post lists for the Gold Cup, connections are set to use the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury at the beginning of December as a springboard to tackling the King George at Kempton and then a decision will be made whether he goes to the festival without another run. Despite his immense amount of class, he rates a dodgy betting proposition until he can come through these early targets in one piece.
Two others to consider owing to their huge amount of ability are Yorkhill and Might Bite. The former has showed on both his two visits to the Cheltenham Festival what a huge talent he is, but at the same time, he also has a screw that can loosen at any given moment. Given his antics at Fairyhouse when last seen, it’s doubtful we will see Willie Mullins’ inmate going right-handed again and it’s also questionable whether this supremely-gifted chestnut will have the stamina to see out a gruelling 3m 2f, such is the speed he shows in his races (arguably has the pace to go close in a Champion Hurdle).
The latter turned in one of the most extraordinary performances of the entire season when landing the RSA Chase at the Festival and the natural talent he exhibited that day will always ensure he’s a factor in any big 3m event over fences. However, at this stage, his run-style looks more suitable for the sharp nature of the King George at Kempton, and Nicky Henderson’s gelding rates a better bet for that race over the Christmas period than he does for the totally different examination of the Gold Cup come March.
Of the rest, Djakadam and Minella Rocco have had their chances and don’t look good enough and the same can be said of Road To Respect, who has never really fully recovered from that crunching fall he took at the Punchestown two years ago. Native River is another to consider given how well he ran in the race last year, but he, too, has had one or two niggly issues (ligament trouble) since last seen, so a certain degree of caution has to be the approach with last season’s Hennessy hero for the foreseeable future.
As ever, there’s always one or two that improve from the handicap ranks along the way and maybe the likes of Coney Island and American can bridge the gap if they can come through their early examinations. The former, in particular, hasn’t got that much to find with Our Duke on their Leopardstown clash and let’s not forget, he’s a genuine Grade 1 performer in his own right.
