With the Festival weeks away, Andy Holding looks at some horses that make little appeal at their present odds based on form or well being.
APPLES SHAKIRA – TRIUMPH HURDLE
Impressive on the eye in both her two victories since landing on these shores, Nicky Henderson’s inmate is unsurprisingly a fairly warm order to capture the juvenile crown at the Cheltenham Festival for third time in as many years for owner J.P McManus. She has, however, yet to be involved in a proper tussle or encounter genuinely quick ground, so with those questions unanswered until the big day itself, odds around the 3-1 mark are easy to resist at this stage of the game. On top of that, there seems to be a decent clutch of four-year-olds around, such as stable mate We Have A Dream, Sussex Ranger, Espoir D’Allen and the hitherto unexposed and potentially top-class Stormy Ireland, who have all shown a fair level of form in the book and on the speed figures.
All the bulletins from Seven Barrows exude positivity regarding last season’s Arkle winner following his recovery after wind surgery, but it will still be a big ask regardless of his class to jump straight back into the lion’s den and go and compete at the very top level first time off the shelf. Likely to have a decent racecourse gallop (or two) before March, if anyone can get him back to his best without a recognised prep-run its surely Nicky Henderson, but from a pure value perspective and given that he’s likely to face a stern test on the day from proven race-fit and in-form runners such as Min and Politologue -not to mention either Douvan or Yorkhill if they face the starter – he makes little appeal at his current 5-4 quotes.
Without doubt, Henry De Bromhead’s inmate is easily one of the most talented recruits to the chasing ranks and his victory over Any Second Now on debut at Punchestown went some way to backing up that view. Last time out, however, he suffered a crunching fall in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over the Christmas period and it’s how he recovers from that tumble which will determine which way he goes mentally. On pure ability alone and his performance in last season’s Albert Bartlett, the son of Milan has the tools to go right to the top of his division, but as we’ve seen so often in the past, not necessarily the best horse wins the RSA and anything with the remotest mental weakness will be found out in the caldron of this bruising encounter.
DIAMOND CAUCHOIS – PERTEMPS FINAL
Looks incredibly short at 8-1 in the early lists despite his easy victory last time out at Navan, not to mention the 15lb he got stung for that success. On top of that, the British handicapper has put him up a further 6lb based on the mark he’s been given in the qualifier for the final at Huntingdon later this week (149 compared to 143), so it’s not as if Gordon Elliot’s charge has a ton to play with in the first place. Moreover, his trainer’s record in the Pertemps Final suggests the Co Meath handler has yet to come to terms with the requirements of the big 3m handicap at the Festival and even if he does make the gig in one piece, it’ll surely be at least a 10-1 the field betting race in the morning as per usual.
MARIA’S BENEFIT – MARES NOVICES HURDLE
Without a shadow of doubt, one of the success stories of the season and it might well end in further glory for relatively small connections. Left or right handed, soft ground or good, Stuart Edmonds’ mare has dealt with the conditions and her opponents with total distain and with a heart-on-her-sleeve run style and solid, slick jumping technique to boot, she has risen the ranks to the heady heights of her current 152 rating. However, whether she will be afforded the luxury of an uncontested lead that she’s obtained in her four victories this season is open to debate and couple that with the fact she’s never raced at Cheltenham - let alone the lung-bursting New Course - the six-year-old is surely one for the layers at this stage.
