Andy's taking advantage of the Cheltenham NRNB prices and has seen plenty of value in a 25/1 shot.
Supreme Novices Hurdle NRNB
Bottled water, city centre car parking and restaurant wine are surely up there with some of the worst value purchases in today’s modern society, but sometimes there is a golden nugget every now and then that almost seems like a little gift and brings back a degree of parity to the world. The value in this instance stems from a horse that seems outrageously overpriced for the curtain-raiser at the Cheltenham Festival based on his hugely encouraging performance in the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Dublin Festival and, just as importantly, the recent failings of other in this division. The horse in question is PALOMA BLUE, who was the only one capable of matching strides with the mighty Samcro in what turned out to be a stellar Grade 1 affair, and there’s simply no way he can be a 33-1 shot if connections decide to take their charge to Cheltenham in March.
Nibbled at in the market beforehand, Henry De Bromhead’s charge reluctantly took up the running after jumping the first due to his keenness and even though he finally settled down a little better going along the back straight once headed, he was always giving the impression he could have done with a stronger pace. Picking up the gauntlet once again after a swift jump at the second last, the Stowaway gelding was still travelling as well as the eventual winner on the run down to the last, but due his early exertions, he understandably had no answer to Gordon Elliot’s superstar on the run-in – who is a real strong stayer at the trip. He did, however, keep on valiantly to finish a creditable third and that result was a huge leap forward in terms of where he now stands among the pecking order of Irish novices. Taking the view that his performance deserves upgrading and he shaped like the second best horse in the race, it makes little sense why he should be quoted at a bigger price than the likes of Duc Des Genievres (picked up the pieces late on to finish a flattering second), Sharjah, Early Doors and Real Steel. Moreover, with the likelihood that Samcro will now be stepped up in trip and go for the 2m 4f Ballymore on the Wednesday of the festival, it’s not outrageous to suggest the six-year-old gelding, Getabird aside, arguably holds the best singular piece of Irish 2m novice hurdle form going in to the curtain-raiser. Looking at raiders from the home contingent, If The Cap Fits rates the clear pick on his Kempton form, but as of yet he’s yet to run anywhere near the standard of Grade 1 company, Claimintakinforgan ran as though his tires had been deflated at Musselburgh the other day, while Kalashnikov would need to be winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury off his handicap mark to justify going down the Supreme route. Now Espoir D’Allen blew out of the Triumph Hurdle picture in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, talk of Apples Shakira being re-routed to come here instead of lining up in the opener on day-four have been extinguished, while Mengli Khan looked as though he saw a ghost when running out at Leopardstown and got readily put in his place by Getabird at Punchestown last time.
As you can see, there’s isn’t that many obvious standout candidates in this race at the present moment in time, which makes the current price of Paloma Blue even more difficult to fathom. On top of that, he’s already proven himself at Championship level when finishing runner-up to the Ill-fated Fayonagh at last season’s Punchestown Festival and he also has the size and scope to keep on improving (looked a proper horse in the paddock). Although he’s got plenty of top-class form on soft, he also gives the impression he’ll be just as effective on better ground and as the Supreme is often run at a sound tempo, a well-run race over a stiff two-miles should be right up his street. In short, his current 33-1 quotes look way out of line given the list of positives, but for those that like a bit of insurance, the 25-1 non-runner, no bet offer with several firms is also worth bearing in mind just in case connections have other plans (which, admittedly, would seem crazy).
