Andy Holding's Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle Preview

The weights for the Festival handicaps are still to be formed, but with a bit of educated guesswork, it’s pretty easy to get some idea of how the shape of each race will look. In this juvenile contest, for instance, having an idea of who’s likely to run here in preference to tackling the Triumph Hurdle is an obvious starting point and with connections of Redicean, Farclas, Sussex Ranger, Mr Adjudicator and Gumball most likely to seek glory in the Grade 1 on final day of the meeting, that rules out a large chunk of those quoted towards the top of the betting.

Add in Espoir D’Allen, who is amazingly still in some lists despite ruled out by connections, and there’s a chance to obtain some early value whilst bookmakers are sleeping. Looking at the race’s short history, there seems to be a trend now developing to suggest the classier horses rated over 130 are beginning to come to the fore, so that’s worth bearing in mind when assessing the runners once the weights are published.

Having won this race three times and had a whole host of placed runners since its inception in 2005, representatives from the Paul Nicholls yard are obviously worth serious consideration. Based on what we’ve seen so far this season, Act Of Valour would spear to be the Ditcheat handler’s number one contender and if you take away an inexplicably poor run behind We Have A Dream at Doncaster, his two runs either side would give him a fine chance off his current mark of 136.

Gordon Elliot’s entries are always worth a second look, too, and although he’s likely to have a multitude to choose from, Mitchouka has the form in the book and experience to compare with his previous winner, Flaxen Flare, back in 2013. Although no match for the classy Espoir D’Allen in two Graded races in December, he readily brushed aside stable mate Veneer Of Charm on his latest start and having the action to suggest he’s been crying out for some better ground, drying conditions come March would see him as a likely type to go well.

Aside from the ante-post favourite, the overall form of NUBE NEGRA (best price 14-1) ties in with some of the classier juveniles seen out this season and hailing from a yard that has slowly come to terms with finally working out the juvenile hurdle scene, Dan Skelton’s inmate looks an interesting contender. Coming from an unfashionable Spanish background, the son of Dink couldn’t have been any more impressive on his hurdling bow when taking apart the 130-rated Knight Destroyer at Market Rasen and although he couldn’t quite come to terms with the classy mare Apple’s Shakira on his next start at Cheltenham, the mere fact that he was pitched in at that level and travelled just as well for a long way as the Triumph Hurdle favourite, speaks volumes for his ability. Craftily kept away from the big guns for his final start before Cheltenham, he duly made light work of fairly weakish opposition at Doncaster, but at the same time, it was very much a case of ‘job done’ as the handicapper saw fit to keep him on the same mark of 135. Having already proven himself around the undulations of Prestbury Park – albeit on the New Course – he should have some sort of advantage over the majority of the field, and this tall, lengthy gelding, who appears to have a very high cruising speed, looks just the type to excel in a well-run, big-field handicap on decent ground.

Another that appears to have total escaped the attentions of some layers is LISP (best price 28-1) and he’s definitely worth putting onto the shopping list at his rather generous-looking odds. Although beaten on his debut over hurdles at Fontwell, he caught the eye by the way he went through the race and, as expected, he made no mistake second time up at Plumpton. Scoring in bloodless fashion as his odds suggested he would on his return to the Surrey track next time, his latest effort actually told us more about his true ability when he was a creditable third in Victor Ludorum Hurdle at Haydock on his most recent start. Despite the strong early pace set by Turning Gold and Cornerstone Lad, Alan King’s inmate proved a little too keen for his own good in the early stages and even though his rider Tom Cannon was doing his best to restrain his mount, horse power won the day and he pulled his way to the front going down the back straight.

Unfortunately, this manoeuvre ended up having a detrimental effect on his end product as he failed to go with the front two after the last, however, despite a bad mistake at the second last and all that expended energy, he did keep on in the sort of fashion to suggest he’s got quite a big heart. Looking at the numbers the race produced, not only was the overall speed figure easily the best furlong-per-furlong time on the card, the final circuit was significantly faster than the Grade 2 contest won by Donna’s Diamond and both the 2m 7f races involving the classy pair, Tommy Rapper and Clan Des Obeaux, indicating it was quite a good race by four-year-old standards.

Only raised just 2lb by the assessor to 132, one could argue that may turn out to be generous taking the view that he was arguably pound-for-pound the best horse in the race at the Lancashire venue and based on that theory, there’s simply no way he should be a 40-1 shot for a race that for one, he’s guaranteed to get a (top weight likely to be close to the 140 mark) run barring accidents and two, he has the sort of class and speed figures to easily go close and make a mockery of his current price. Even if you can’t get the recommended price, 25-1 is still not in the right ball park and should be taken accordingly.