Our ever present racing tipster talks us through how their is more than just luck to this year's Irish horses.
Going into the Festival, it appears the Irish raiders have a stranglehold of most of the Big Grade 1 prizes on paper and it could well be a bookies nightmare if the majority, as the betting suggests, end up delivering the goods. Samcro, would be many punters’ idea as the banker of the meeting and when you add in the likes of Un De Sceaux, Getabird, Footpad, Apple’s Jade, Laurina, Invitation Only, Presenting Percy, Cracking Smart – not to mention the first three in the betting for the Champion Bumper – and you can see why there’s a wave of expectation drifting across from over the Irish Sea.
How will the favourites fare?
On a general note, it’s worth looking at the historic record of favourites since 2000, and of those that started between 2-1 and evens, the strike-rate is only 40% - which means three out of five have been beaten. One race that should be approached with caution for favourite backers is the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as since the turn of the century, there have been eight market leaders under 2-1 that have bit the dust – including the likes of Youlneverwalkalone, Dunguib, Cue Card, My Tent Or Yours and Min. Certainly food for thought if you are thinking about lumping on GETABIRD at his current price of 6-4 generally.
Of the above list, LAURINA is one of the shortest in the betting and she looks the strongest with regards to class and pure ability and given that, Maria’s Benefit aside, it doesn’t look the deepest of races, it would be disappointing if she fails to justify her position in the market. The way she dismantled a useful bunch of mares with consummate ease at Fairyhouse last time out was sight to behold and with the runner-up, Alletrix, going on to advertise the form subsequently, Willie Mullins’ inmate goes into the fifth race on the Thursday of the meeting with easily the best credentials.
APPLE’S JADE is the most prohibitive price of all the market leaders and she does look the part whichever way you strip in down. Unbeaten in four subsequent starts since winning this race last year, she’s the only genuine Grade 1 winning mare in the line-up and it’s difficult to make a strong case to see how bookmakers are going to dodge this particular bullet.
Which is the most vulnerable is a difficult call without knowing the ground and the full extent of the opposition until the day itself, but at the current prices, there is a big argument to be made that FOOTPAD probably has the most on his plate. Yes, he’s easily brushed aside everything in his path in his three races over fences and his jumping technique at speed has looked assured, but so far, he’s been allowed to dictate matters from the front and with several of his opponents on the day, namely, Petite Mouchoir and Saint Calvados likely to be given orders to let rip, it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with a different set of circumstances. Given that he’s unlikely to be allowed too much piece up front and you have the talented and proven C&D performer, Sceaux Royal, waiting in the wings ready to pounce like a Venus fly trap and odds of even money seem pretty short at this stage.
Aside from the obvious big names, which are the ones bookmakers and punters alike have let slip under the radar?
The move for PALOMA BLUE in the curtain-raiser has gathered plenty of momentum in recent weeks and it’s easy to see why he’s virtually halved in price given he was the only one to give Samcro a race in the best Irish 2m trail, The Deloitte Novice Hurdle at the two-day Leopardstown February fixture. He still just about offers a shade of value for those that are not already on around the 16-1 mark (likely to nearer 10-1 on the day).
On day two, Samcro is one of the big talking horses of the festival, and quite rightly so on the evidence of what we’ve seen so far and his potential going forward, but at the same time, NEXT DESTINATION should in no way be underestimated. Although he wasn’t wildly impressive when winning the Grade 1 at Navan when last seen, he actually did well to come out on top given it turned out to be a muddling affair and it’s not as if the runner-up, Cracking Smart, is any mug either. Sure to be suited by a proper test over 2m 4f, a trip for which he’s already proven, Willie Mullins’ inmate looks one for the each-way thieves around the 6-1 mark
On the same day, everyone seems to think Altoir just has to turn up to win this Champion Chase, but anyone talking that flippant stance could be in for a rude awakening by also totally dismissing the solid claims of MIN. Much better suited by getting a more patient ride from off the pace at Leopardstown than trying to go ‘lights out’ over the same C&D the time before, the son of Walk In The Park is a serious piece of kit in his own right and he will give Nicky Henderson’s star plenty to think about at the very least if ridden to maximize his skills.
Cause Of Causes has been favourite virtually all winter to retain his Cross Country crown despite having only one run beforehand – a well beaten last over an inadequate trip – and there’s no doubt he’s been priced up on the notion that he often comes alive at the Festival after a string of seemingly subdued efforts. If there is one that appears to escaped the attentions of the masses its AUVERGNAT. Enda Bolger’s inmate did really well to finish fourth in this race last season after getting into a poor rhythm early on and his latest effort when accounting for stable mate Josies Orders over the banks at Punchestown will have put a nice edge on his overall wellbeing and fitness.
Without Willie Mullins, the Irish would be a bit threadbare in this season’s Triumph Hurdle, but the Co Carlow handler does have a strong hand sending both STORMY IRELAND and MR ADJUDICATOR to post. For those of us with nice ante-post vouchers about the former, it was disconcerting at the time, to see her not take her chance in Ireland’s premier juveniles race, The Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown’s February meeting, but as Willie Mullins’ has stated in the press recently, a dirty nose prevented her from making the gig.
Back in full work and pleasing connections since, the daughter of Motivator will give some of these four-year-olds the fright of their lives with the gallop she’s likely to set. The latter got the better of fair battle with the strongly-fancied Farclas at the Dublin venue on his latest start and he looks to have the right mental qualities for a race of this nature. Back in full work and pleasing connections since, the daughter of Motivator will give some of these four-year-olds the fright of their lives with the gallop she’s likely to set. The latter got the better of fair battle with the strongly-fancied Farclas at the Dublin venue on his latest start and he looks to have the right mental qualities for a race of this nature.
The big race on day three, The Ryanair Chase, was won in tremendous fashion by Un De Scaeux last season and he’s done nothing in two starts this campaign to suggest he won’t go very close to retaining his crown. That said, last year’s race rather fell apart with second favourite, Empire Of Dirt, running way below par and with the subsequent form of the beaten horses such as Sub Lieutenant and Josses Hill, questionable to say the least, Willie Mullins’ 10-year-old is likely to have far more on his plate this time around. One of his main threats is likely to stem from fellow Irish raider, BALKO DES FLOS (best price 10-1), and there are many reason to believe Henry De Bromhead’s inmate can give the favourite plenty to think about.
Firstly, he was still going really well when taking an uncharacteristic tumble at the fence at the top of the hill in last year’s JLT and if you compared his sectional time of 1.56.9 from the one in front of the stands to the point where he fell, to the 1.57.0 of Un De Sceaux when he touched down at the very same fence an hour later on the same card, he clearly was set to run a big race. Since that untimely blow, the son of Balko has continued on an upward curve and his victory in the ultra-competitive Galway Plate backed up the view that he’s a useful performer when faced with a strong-run event on decent ground. Unfortunately, the seven-year-old hasn’t had his conditions in three starts so far this Winter, but at the same time, he certainly hasn’t been disgraced - as his latest effort in the Grade 1 Christmas Chase testifies. Although he eventually got outstayed by proven three-miler Road To Respect in the climb to the line, it should be pointed out that he travelled like the best horse in the race for nine tenths of the journey and had many top-class chasers such as Sizing John, Yorkhill, Outlander and Minella Rocco all flat to the boards rounding the home turn.
Rested since, presumable this race has been his number one target all season representing a firm that somehow has yet to win their own race since its inception 2005, and if he gets somewhere near good ground on the day, it’s hard to see this talented young chaser not going close and, as a result, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his current odds with doubts about quite a few towards the top end of the market.
