One horse has caught the eye in this hotly contested market.
Usually one of the most eagerly-anticipated races of the entire festival in terms of quality, but as has been the case in recent times, not one to relish too much with regards the betting side of things. Other than Western Warhorse causing a shock at 33-1 in 2014, we’ve ended up with a short-priced favourite, a small field and a fairly predictable result, so unless you’re a punter who liked to play in the exotic markets such as without the favourite, place-only or distance betting, it’s been a race many have preferred to sit out and watch. At this stage of the season, however, that trend doesn’t look like repeating itself with 11-2 the field telling you how wide-open the two-mile novice category has been during the campaign, and with the potential of the entire market likely to be heavily impacted by the results at the upcoming Dublin Racing Festival, it makes sense to delve into roots of the best form so far and seek some value.
The main issue why there’s such a complex-looking market arrives from the fact we haven’t seen that much of the main protagonists for a genuine pecking order to have been formed, and with quite a few already taking it in turns to beat one another, it’s difficult to be too dogmatic about any horse in particular until the last form-lines have been linked or we have an idea of roughly what ground conditions are likely to be nearer the time.
The only race to have been run over the same C&D this season was the Arkle Trial Chase back at the November meeting and with five top-class prospects going to post, the result was always going to have some sort of bearing as to what might happen in March. In what turned out to be a well-run affair, it was Lalor who came out on top, and with the subsequent results of those in behind that day all going on to suggest the form is about as rock-solid as you will find, it was easy to see why Kayley Woolacott’s gelding went to Sandown to tackle the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase a warm favourite. Unfortunately, the son of It’s Gino wasn’t able to run to the same level at the Esher venue and the form was comprehensively turned around by Dynamite Dollars. Maybe it was racing right-handed which caused the seven-year-old to run below par or possibly it was just the testing ground that day which found him out, but either way we have one piece of evidence to suggest he’s a worthy market leader and another line of form to suggest he’s worth opposing.
On to Dynamite Dollars, whose record against Lalor reads 1-1, and his case for Festival glory has got more and more traction as the campaign has progressed. Although suffering his only defeat over fences at the hands of his old rival at Cheltenham in November, the six-year-old managed to turn the tables around in no uncertain terms at Sandown, and he’s remained unbeaten in two starts since. Indeed, that victory at the Esher Park venue came courtesy of a very fast speed figure in comparison to Altoir, who took the Tingle Creek on the same card, and he went on to duplicate the same feat at Kempton on his next outing. In completing the final lap at the Surrey track 1.6 seconds faster than Nicky Henderson’s 175-rated chaser, Paul Nicholls’ inmate took the scalp of the much-vaunted Kalashnikov and for those that live and die by weights and measures, it’s also worth noting he achieved that feat carrying five pounds more than his main market rival. Finishing off his winning sequence with another stylish display at Doncaster recently, the son of Buck’s Boum proved that he’s equally at home on a quicker surface and with his jumping at pace one of his main attributes, another forceful ride at the Festival is likely to see this admirable young chaser pushing many of his rivals through the pain barrier.
Although beaten fair and square on the day by Dynamite Dollars at Kempton, if anything KALASHNIKOV (best price 7-1) came out of that defeat with more credit than he was afforded and at the prices on offer at the moment, he appears one of the few value bets left in the Arkle. Very good in all departments on his first two starts over fences at Warwick and Plumpton, Amy Murphy’s gelding was understandably a hot favourite to confirm his position at the head of the ante-post market, but right from an early stage he never looked like the same horse we’d seen previously and he just couldn’t cope with a horse knocking out fractions equivalent to championship level. In mitigation, it was the first time the son of Kalanisi had raced right-handed and after two noticeable errors early on, he could never get into a proper jumping rhythm while leading with the wrong leg. The one thing that he did show, however, was an extremely tenacious attitude and the fact that he was still capable of running up to very high level despite making errors and being unsuited by the track speaks volumes for his sheer class. Due to go back to Warwick to contest the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase as his final preparation before Cheltenham, hopefully the six-year-old will put up another bold display at a track that will certainly sharpen his eye prior to his biggest ever test. Although yet to meet a fence at Prestbury Park, he did, of course, run a tremendous race in the Supreme Novices’ at last year’s festival and with a career record of never being out of the first two in nine starts, it’s easy to see this bomb-proof performer, who’s seen as a staying chaser long-term, running a massive race at a track that will bring his stamina into play.
The Irish, in particular Willie Mullins, have a terrific record in this race over the years, so it clearly pays to respect any of the leading candidates from the Emerald Isle.
Of the main contenders this season, nothing as of yet has set the world alight, although at the same time, Le Richebourg does have solid Grade 1 form next to his name. Runner-up to the smart Delta Work in his first attempt at the very top level two starts ago, Joseph O’Brien’s gelding was really good when dropped back to his optimum trip at Leopardstown last time out and with the well-fancied Mengli Khan well beaten back in fourth that day, the performance deserves extra merit. Due to run this weekend in the Irish equivalent to the Arkle, the son of Network could easily be heading the ante-post lists if he comes through with flying colours.
As mentioned, Willie Mullins has landed this race for three of the last four seasons, but useful though Cilaos Emery might be, he doesn’t have anything like the same class as Un Des Sceaux, Douvan or Footpad. That said, he got the job done well enough on his chase debut at Gowran and he remains a horse to be respected rather than scared of.
Connections of one-time ante-post favourite, Mengli Khan, will be hoping for something better this weekend as he got well put in his place by Le Richebourg at Leopardstown last time out. Whether that’s as good as he is only time will tell, but he does at least have proven Festival form courtesy of his third in last season’s Supreme, and using that performance as a guide, albeit a tenuous one, he hasn’t got masses to find with Kalashnikov strictly on the book.
Henry De Bromhead is another trainer to be respected in this division and at the present moment in time, the Co Waterford handler appears to have two viable contenders in the shape of Paloma Blue and Ornua. Although the classier of the pair on paper, the former doesn’t appear to jump well enough to be considered a Grade 1 chaser over two miles, so it might well be that his un-sung stable mate ends up being the number one hope. A real, bold-jumping front runner, the son of Mahler served up a tremendous pace in the Henry VIII until getting picked off late on by Dynamite Dollars, but as the ground wouldn’t have been anywhere near to his liking, it has to go down as a terrific effort. Similar to his older stable mate, Special Tiara, in the sense he goes a proper clip from the start, the way he races will get many of his rivals out of their comfort zones early and with all his five career victories coming on good ground, a dry spell in the build up to the race would increase his chances of causing a shock, ten-fold.
