Andy Holding's Cheltenham Tuesday Racing Tips

With plenty of firms angling for business on day-one of the Festival, the pure maths lend itself to have a bet in the curtain raiser whether you have a massive opinion or not. The other important factor to note is the state of the ground come lunchtime and with the weather forecast intimating the course could have anything up to 10mil thanks to Storm Gareth (plus strong winds), conditions looks set to be pretty testing.

One who should enjoy the likely soft ground is FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (best price 6-1) who comes here instead of taking on stable companion Sir Erec in the Triumph Hurdle. Brought over to see whether he was a genuine Festival contender on trials day back in January, Joseph O’Brien’s gelding ended up running out a very easy winner of one of the key juvenile contests of the season and the way he powered up the hill in the closing stages pointing towards a horse who really relished a proper test. Moreover, his winning overall time and final circuit sectionals compared favourable to the likes of Birchdale and Paisley Park on the same card and based on those findings, he clearly would have taken plenty of beating in the big four-year-old contest on the final day of the meeting. Subsequently acquired by JP McManus, the son of Kapgrade is clearly one of the most exciting prospects in his division for some time and it would be a surprise if he didn’t turn out to be a massive player receiving all the allowances.

The other that makes plenty of appeal of finishing in the first half dozen at the very least is the unheralded GRAND SANCY (best price 14-1). Improving and thriving with each race this season, Paul Nicholls’ gelding arrives here off the back of a career-high success in the Kingwell Hurdle against the more established pair Sceaux Royal and Vision Des Flos (won National Spirit since) and the way he dug deep and found plenty for pressure that day highlights a horse who has a big heart to match his undoubted natural talent. Prior to that game effort, the son of Diamond Boy made the smart Elixir De Nutx pull out all the stops in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown and with his third-placed stable mate Southfield Stone going on to endorse the form in the Dovecote Hurdle next time out, it’s hard to crib that performance in any way. Moreover, he has experience of a big, rough-house event in his locker thanks to his excellent display when fourth in the Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Ascot pre-Christmas and given that he was one of the few to make any noticeable ground up from the back of the field that day, his effort deserved upgrading. All in all, this tough five-year-old has done just as much in terms of pure form as quite a few ahead of him in the betting yet for one reason or another seems to have been totally underestimated. Hailing from a stable in red-hot form at present and adaptable on pretty much all types of ground, he’s very capable of outrunning his morning odds.

Looking at the pace maps for this Grade 1 contest, the likes of Ornua, Articulum, Duc Des Genievres, Clondaw Castle and Knocknanuss all like to go forward, so with that in mind, it might pay to go with something sitting off the pace and both GLEN FORSA (best price 9-2) and HARDLINE (best price 5-1) fit the bill.

The former arrives here via a slightly unconventional route in the sense that he won over 2m7f at Chepstow earlier in the campaign, but since then, he’s proved to be a revelation over shorter trips. An impressive winner over 2m4f at Kempton over the Christmas period, the perceived wisdom was that Mick Channon’s gelding would go down the same route as stable mate Mister Whitaker and be aimed at the Close Brother Handicap over the same trip. The fact that he missed his prep race for that contest on trials day intimated that connections had seen a different side to the son of Mahler than what he’d displayed on the track and that was borne out on his latest outing at Sandown. Racing over the minimum trip for the first time over fences, the seven-year-old absolutely battered Kalashnikov at the Esher track, who was one of the strong market leaders for the Arkle at the time, and if you take into account his overall time figures and sectionals compared to the older horse handicapper Not Another Muddle, it was a performance of top-class two-mile chaser in the making. Likely to be ridden just off the pace, he has the cruising speed and sound jumping technique to keep him just on the fringes of the action at the top of the hill and from that point onwards when it becomes a test, his stamina should prove a vital asset in the long drag for home.

The latter is also proven over further thanks to his victory over Getabird in a Grade 1 at Limerick over the Christmas period and he too should benefit from having nothing to do with the likely strong early fractions. Although on paper it looked as though Gordon Elliot’s inmate was disappointing at Leopardstown last time out, the fast ground that day caused him to back off his fences and lose valuable ground early, but it was encouraging at least to see him make up the lost leeway from two out and the form of that race was endorsed by runner-up Kaiser Black at Naas on Sunday. On convincing winner from Us And Them over two miles at Navan three starts ago, the son of Arcadio has plenty of qualities to suggest he will be a big player in the final analysis.

Up until two years ago when Un Temps Pout Tout triumphed, those rated over 150 had a poor record in this race, so that victory for David Pipe’s inmate does offer up more hope that MISTER WHITAKER (best price 8-1) can defy a similar perch.

Winner of the Close Brothers Handicap at last season’s Festival, Mick Channon’s gelding hasn’t quite hit those heady heights so far this term, but at the same time, he hasn’t run too badly either. A creditable fourth in the BetVictor Gold Cup earlier in the campaign, the son of Court Cave could never land a blow behind the hugely impressive Cyrname at Ascot next time, but that effort only further went to serve that he’s seems to lack the pace for 2m4f nowadays and has being crying out for a step up in trip. Obviously, his previous festival experience in a large field will help and with the assistance of the excellent Brian Hughes in the saddle, a big run looks on the cards from this game and likable seven-year-old.

Of those at much bigger odds, Royal Vacation and Calipto come into the mix based on several solid form lines and could be worth chancing to small beer. The former seems to be more reliable nowadays and a repeat of either performance that saw him chase home Rock The Kasbah over today’s course in November or his fourth in the Grand National trial at Haydock would give him a squeak. The latter seemed to really appreciate the step up to three miles at Ascot last time out – running a fast last circuit into the bargain – and it’s worth pointing out that he’s also run well on his two previous Cheltenham Festival appearances in the Triumph Hurdle and Grand Annual respectively.

In what should turn out to be a vintage Champion Hurdle, there’s not a lot to choose between the big three in the betting. Apple’s Jade will have her conditions to be at her best and will surely give a bold site from the front, while supporters of Buveur D’Air and Laurina will be hoping that the strong pace will play into the hands of the deep-closers.

Away from the front end of the market, ESPOIR D’ALLEN (best price 11-1) has rather crept under the radar and with connections clearly having a rethink after suggesting he wouldn’t be going to Cheltenham following his latest victory at Naas, he probably deserves more respect than the market suggests. Unbeaten so far this term, the five-year-old is one of the few of his generation to show he can hold his own against the older horses and the way he travelled and quickened past the useful Stormy Island at Limerick over the Christmas period suggested he was going in the right direction. Once again very good visually and on the numbers at Naas last time out, Gavin Cromwell’s gelding is one of the few in the field with the ability to really quicken on soft ground and with the conditions set to deteriorate come post time, the son of Voix De Nord is worth playing in the without the favourite markets.

Reading between the lines, Benie Des Dieux looks difficult to oppose in her bid to provide Willie Mullins with yet another victory in a mares’ race at the Cheltenham Festival, but there maybe some value to be had in the ‘without the favourite’ markets and both ROKSANA (best price 4-1) and ELIMAY (best price 12-1) are worth playing against the field.

The former warmed up for a tilt at this prize with a perfectly respectable effort behind Buveur D’Air over an inadequate trip at Sandown last time out and it was noticeable that she was eased down considerably in the closing stages once her winning chance had gone. An excellent runner-up to Santini over three miles in the Grade 1 for novices at Aintree last season, today’s extra emphasis on stamina should suit and a repeat of that level of form will make Dan Skelton’s mare hard to keep out of the frame.

The latter is a little more difficult to explain in the sense she’s only had the one run to get a gauge on her true ability, but there was enough on the evidence of her run at Leopardstown to suggest she’s by no means a no-hoper in this event. Having her first start for new connections, Willie Mullins’ mare impressed by the way she kept on strongly all the way to the line at the Dublin venue and having come from a background of many soft ground races in her native France, the grey daughter of Montmartre has fine prospects of getting herself into the mix.

The Irish raiders appear to have a strong hand in this novices’ handicap and A PLUS TARD (best price 13-2) stands out as being one of the potential class acts in the field.

In need of the run when runner-up on his debut run for new connections at Gowran back in November, Henry De Bromhead’s gelding made no mistake on his next start at Naas when he stayed on very strongly in the latter stages to account for the smart Duc Des Genievres. Time-figure wise, the race in question stacked up well and even though he failed in his bid to justify heavy support in a Grade 3 at Punchestown next time out, he still turned in a decent effort in finishing runner-up up to the progressive Winter Escape. Put away since, the son of Kapgarde appears to have escaped with a fair opening handicap mark of 140 and coming from a background of heavy ground victories in his native France, he will be more at home under today’s conditions than most.

Of the rest, the top-weighted pair, Highway One O One and Red Indian must come into the argument based on the opposition they’ve been taking on. The former tried bravely to cut out the running in a similar contest on trials day and with the likes of First Drift and Azzerti winning since, the form doesn’t look too shabby, while the latter finished ahead of subsequent winner Bags Groove in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Chase at Kempton and would probably be a good deal shorter in the market if he were housed in a more fashionable yard.

Without doubt, Ok Corral is the most talented horse in this line up and wouldn’t be out of place in the RSA field tomorrow, but whether he has the sufficient stamina to stay a well-run four miles on soft ground has to be open to question for one that showed so much speed at Warwick last time out, so the percentage call is to go with the no-frills duo of BALLYWARD (best price 3-1) and DISCORAMA (best price 6-1).

The fall at the last of the latter robbed racegoers of what could have been a tremendous finish of the Grade 3 Naas Novice Chase last time out, but the fact that the pair were fully in control of the likes of Chris’s Dream and Champagne Classic (1-2 in a Grade 3 next time) until that unfortunate incident occurred suggests the form is very strong. The former, in particular, has plenty of similarities to his stable’s previous winners Back In Focus and Rathvinden and even though he lacks the experience of that pair, his sound-jumping and proven stamina should count for plenty. The latter ran well in the Grade 1 Drinmore earlier in the season and shapes as though this trip will suit.

With Caution looks very much the one to beat on his hat trick bid, but that has been reflected in his price, whereas PUZZLE (best price 8-1) seems to have escaped the attention of the bookmakers and, as a result, makes far more appeal as a solid each-way alternative.

In-keeping with how his old boss’s horses often used to run on their debuts, Richard Hughes wouldn’t be one for pressing too many buttons at the first time of asking and that was most definitely the case with this son of Paco Boy at Kempton 12 days ago. Soon on the back foot after a tardy start, the three-year-old found himself still in last position as the field turned for home, but in making up a huge amount of ground in the closing stages, he managed to salvage plenty from the wreckage to finish a never-nearer sixth. Indeed, at one point it actually looked like he was going to finish in the frame – which seemed unlikely at halfway – until the exertions to get into that position took its toll, but the fact he managed to post some of the best closing sectionals on the card when still running with the dummy in his mouth is testimony to his natural ability. Hopefully tonight he will break a good bit sharper from the gates and if so, it would come as a bit of a surprise if he wasn’t good enough to hit the frame at the very least.