Supreme Novice Hurdle: The key race trials

In the build-up to Cheltenham, we have got Daryl Carter with us to look at all the key race trials for nine races at Cheltenham. These trials offer punters plenty of crucial information and Daryl has analysed them for us. Daryl has an extensive knowledge of horse racing and his analysis is a must for any punter who wants to make their Cheltenham a profitable one. 

The Supreme Novice Hurdle is the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival and will raise the curtain to mark the start of four season-defining days of top-class horse racing. Below, I have highlighted five-race-trials that have proven, in the past ten years, to be key pieces of form analysis producing six individual winners of the race in the past ten years. 

These are the types of races that usually attract a high calibre of horse at that particular time in the season and, in many cases, can point the way to horses running well at the Cheltenham Festival.

Some of the races you see throughout this article may not be key race trials in name, but have either produced winners at the Cheltenham Festival, an array of placed horses or include those featured prominently in the betting. 

Which races?

• The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle now known as the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Trial at Cheltenham

• Grade 2 Kennel Gate now known at the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Trial at Ascot

• Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown

• The Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse

• The Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle now known as The Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle run at Leopardstown (this will be added after it has been run) 

(Other races that can be considered a pointer to Supreme Novice Hurdle glory include Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle Grade 2 won this year by Andy Dufresne from the Gordon Elliot yard) 

2019 Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Trial run at Cheltenham

What a difference six weeks makes! Having got no further than the first on his debut for @ELavelleracing at Exeter last month, Hang In There's transformation is complete.

He makes all to land the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle under @Adamkwedge#TheNovemberMeeting pic.twitter.com/64TmWsRFld

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 17, 2019

Race Analysis: 

Emma Lavelle’s, Hang In There, made it back to back wins over hurdles and took his tally to two wins from three starts when landing this trial at Cheltenham. He comfortably took care of his unbeaten rival Pacify, who was on a run of five consecutive victories and who had achieved a rating of 140 prior the race. 

Hang In There, sent off at 6/1, pulled clear of the field with his chief market rival inside the final furlong staying on powerfully without looking in any real danger of being caught. 

Emma Lavelle’s runner made all of the running ensuring a fair gallop opting to take a course that would use the inside rail when all of his rivals in the race took a slightly wider path on the course; looking for the best ground in what looked to be testing conditions on the day. Hang In There jumped well throughout the race losing minimal ground at any of his obstacles showing a keen aptitude for jumping. 

The overall time recorded was 0.04s quicker than the Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on the same card won by the well-handicapped, Harambe, off an official rating of 137 in the previous race.

Hang In There’s performance can be upgraded due to running on the unfavoured part of the track (inside rail) when taking into consideration all of the winners on the card this day won their races by taking wider paths on the course. He was at a disadvantage on the slower ground that was deteriorating quickly on this part of the course. 

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

A progressive five-year-old but he will certainly need to take a step forward again before being considered a Supreme Novice Hurdle contender on the basis of this performance. The opposition was ultimately well below the standard you would expect for a Supreme Novice Hurdle, but after only three completed starts over hurdles and back-to-back wins in contrasting conditions, Emma Lavelle could possibly have a useful recruit on her hands.

Hang In There has was awarded a handicap mark of 145 on the back of this success which was enough for bookmakers to cut him to as short as 20/1 in places from 33/1. However, he is now as big as 66/1 in the market. He will need to improve to make the frame in Grade 1 Company. At the time of writing he resides 9lbs lower than the 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Klassical Dream, and 8lbs lower than 2018 winner Summerville Boy. While he is still relatively unexposed on what he has shown thus far he may fall short when asked to meet the standard required, especially with powerhouse stables such as Mullins and Elliot still to play their hands.

Recent Winners: 

The race yields plenty of importance as many Novice Hurdlers’ will gain their first taste of the Cheltenham turf and course experience can often count for plenty at the Cheltenham Festival. All of the previous winners you see in the table above in the past ten years have gone on to run at the Cheltenham Festival later that same season and all bar Vyta Du Roc ran in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. While only one horse has completed the race double (Altior 2015) the beaten horses should also be taken into consideration, Summerville Boy finished second behind Slate House in this race in 2017 before going on to victory at Cheltenham and Itchy Feet of Olly Murphy’s who could only manage second place in this trial, secured a spot in the first three in the Grade 1 contest at Cheltenham at a mouth-watering SP of 25/1.

Winners produced: 2

2019 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Trial run at Ascot

Another potential @colintizzard star! Master Debonair is impressive in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial at @Ascot! pic.twitter.com/UCv0DHRqkS

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 20, 2019

Race Analysis: 

Master Debonair was an impressive winner of the trial at Ascot on Heavy ground and he proved that he has quickly developed into a smart hurdler and put this race to bed with authority.

Master Debonair dominated the field from the front making all and despite some untidy jumps over his hurdles he never looked in danger. He jumped to his left at his first two hurdles before jumping straight and true as the pace settled. He made a slight error at the third last and then come under pace pressure on the turn into the home straight where he jumped left at both of his final two hurdles, before coming away from the field with relative ease.

The Colin Tizzard runner saddled a 3lb penalty and won by an impressive eight lengths over chief rival Ribble Valley who received some strong late market support before the off. Ribble Valley was two from two over hurdles prior to this race and both of those wins came in impressive fashion based on visual interpretation.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Master Debonair managed to get his career firmly back on track here with a powerful performance and bookmakers slashed his odds across the board for Cheltenham glory on immediate reaction to the race from 25/1 to as short as 16/1 and he is now a general 14/1 shot.

Colin Tizzard and connections will know that their stable star will need to improve his jumping at Grade 1 level but he has plenty of Cheltenham course experience having contested races at the Prestbury Park track on four occasions, and rates a leading contender in what is shaping up to be another weak year for the English at this stage.

Recent Winners: 

The Ascot Supreme trial has failed to produce any direct winners of the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the past ten years and the 2017 and 2018 renewals produced horses that could only manage 5th and 7th place in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, but it would be unfair to tarnish this race as a poor trial. The 2016 winner Capitaine did not run at Cheltenham and connections of Yanworth in 2015 chose the Ballymore Novice Hurdle route over 2m5f. 

The three years prior to that saw Ireland unleash superstar after superstar at the Cheltenham Festival in the form of Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever and in 2011 the Nicky Henderson trained Molotof, ran in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 145. 

The trial may initially prove to rate a ‘nearly’ trial but plenty of talented horses have laid claim to this race in the past ten years and it’s a race worth noting for betting heats closer to the festival.

Winners Produced: 0

2020 Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle run at Sandown

Fine performance!

The exciting Fiddlerontheroof romps home in the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle at @Sandownpark@Robbie_Power_

Results ➡ https://t.co/glajGV55GR pic.twitter.com/11RVGyumHZ

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 4, 2020

Race analysis:  

Undoubtedly Fiddlerontheroof’s toughest assignment to date and while his previous form lines were very strong, he took a significant step forward here today seeing his odds slashed for the race in March. He is now as short as 5/1, having been as big as 25/1 before he stormed to victory. You can still get him at 8/1 though if you shop around. 

The field was closely matched in the betting before the off but Colin Tizzard’s Novice Hurdler was sent off the 5/4 favourite for this Grade 1 contest after late market support. Robbie Power was happy to sit in third position throughout the race taking a lead from Cheltenham Supreme Trial winner Hang In There. The race was run at an honest pace, with the whole field jumping well throughout the race but the eye was immediately drawn to the strong travelling Fiddlerontheroof turning into the home straight who was looking for back-to-back course and distance success. The six-year-old took up the running prior to jumping the third from home and quickly put three to four lengths between himself and his rivals jumping the second last hurdle powering away to win by six lengths. His slick jumping and large stride allowed him to gallop through the soft ground and leave his rivals in his wake.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Colin Tizzard looks to have two useful Novice recruits on his hands this season and both have won significant trials but Fiddlerontheroof sets the standard, not just for his stablemate, but for the rest of the British contenders to aim at. His best form has come with ease in the ground and should the opening day come up on the softer side he would have to be high on any shortlist. His previous form, which includes a second-place finish behind the Champion Bumper third Thyme Hill over 2m3f on reappearance this season, as well as this Grade 1 victory, all point to him being a leading fancy for the Supreme Novice Hurdle in March and he rates a solid candidate at this point in time. 

Recent winners: 

The Tolworth Hurdle is the only British Grade 1 trial for the Supreme Novice Hurdle and has proved to be a fair indicator for a Supreme Novice Hurdle contender. The 2018 renewal saw Summerville Boy defeat Kalashnikov and the pair filled the same spots at Cheltenham in March. Yorkhill went on to be victorious at Cheltenham in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle over 2m5f and the 2014 renewal saw Josses Hill finish runner up in the Supreme Novice Hurdle after finishing behind Royal Boy.

Winners Produced: 1

2019 Royal Bond run at Fairyhouse

Envoi Allen - a horse with the world at his feet!

6 races
6 wins
G1 winning hurdler
G1 Champion Bumper hero
He just keeps on winning

Envoi Allen sees off stablemate Abacadabras to land the G1 @BarOneRacing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle @Fairyhouse @gelliott_racing pic.twitter.com/SDBl3Xj0YY

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 1, 2019

Race Analysis:  

Envoi Allen has looked the potential superstar of the season and he enhanced his claims with a powerful victory in the Royal Bond. Always prominent throughout the race and in total control, his high cruising speed took him into the lead at the fourth flight and the 2019 Champion Bumper winner showed an improved hurdling technique from his previous start. He quickened up with the minimum of fuss, always holding the smooth travelling runner up and closest Supreme Novice Hurdle market rival Abacadabras who finished with a powerful effort. Envoi Allen was 2.5 seconds quicker than any other race on the card from the last hurdle to the finishing line and a full three seconds quicker from the second last hurdle in what was an impressive display. 

The runner-up Abacadabras, travelled smoothly into contention from mid-pack and was the last onein the field off the bridle. It’s likely the finish line came too quickly for Gordon Elliot’s second string who will appreciate a long home straight and a stiff finish of the Cheltenham Old course. The pair look to be the two to take from the race.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Envoi Allen produced a career-best performance here and you would be hard pushed to suggest the ceiling of his ability is within touching distance. With striking sectional times, a slick hurdling ability and staying power to boot, should be turn up here he would be very hard to beat. However, it seems likely that he may be running in the Ballymore instead.

Therefore, it looks like runner-up and stablemate Abacadabras will be leading the line for Gordon Elliott’s team. He is the current 9/2 favourite for the race, with one bookmaker going as short as 3/1 on him. He needs to shake the tag of a bridle horse for me at this stage but Cheltenham will likely play to his strengths and last year’s Champion Bumper fourth rates a leading contender for the same stable if lining up for the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

Recent Winners: 

Very similar to the English trials, the Royal Bond winners will usually feature prominently in the Supreme Novice Hurdle betting and this race is widely known as a good indicator for the race in March. However, no winner of the race in the past 10 years has gone on to win this race as well as the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

Champagne Fever in 2012 finished runner up behind Jezki and was able to turn the form around at Cheltenham however and the very quirky Labaik who refused to race in 2016 but put his best foot forward to land the 2017 Supreme Novice Hurdle. Placed horses from this race at the Cheltenham Festival include Mengli Khan (3rd Supreme), Arctic Fire (2nd County Hurdle) and Nichols Canyon (3rd Ballymore Hurdle) to name a few.

Winners Produced: 2