Liam Firkin has identified five horses from smaller yards he likes the look of for the Cheltenham Festival.
Stop doing your own brains and betting tank in by backing every novice for Cheltenham, that Willie Mullins sends to a weak maiden hurdle!!
Every year, the same story and following the defeat of Doctor Du Mesnil I am seeing people considering parting with more money for The Albert Bartlett having already backed him for The Supreme, The Turners or in some cases, both!
If you’re in that camp too, I’ll give you the same advice I gave to my Telegram group when I saw this “betting strategy” being parroted on Monday afternoon.
If you’ve backed him for The Supreme and Turners already and are now looking to back him for the 3m contest, you’ll have staked 3 points. He is a general 33/1 and therefore even if he does win The Albert Bartlett (which he won’t) then you’ve got yourself an 11/1 winner and he will SP at a bigger price on the day.
So think about it twice.
Then think again.
Then keep thinking until you decide to leave him alone.
Majority of the Cheltenham Ante-Post chatter is centred around the prominent Irish yards, Nicky Henderson, and now Dan Skelton but a huge focus is on the three novice hurdle events and yet there is so much untapped value away from the big stables.
So in an attempt to not just berate, I’ve tried to help by taking a look at some of the smaller yards who could have an impact on the big stage in March and due to the size of their operations, there’s plenty of juice in their prices.
For clarity, by the term ‘smaller yards’ I don’t mean ‘smaller trainer’ which is often overused to describe those with fewer horses in training as opposed to the titans of the great game who have the luxury of much greater investment and owners with obscene wealth buying up every potential superstar from France, the Point-to-Point sphere, and private sales.
Firkin's 5 Horses from Smaller Yards
NAVAJO INDY
TOM SYMONDS
Coral Cup @ 50/1
He hasn’t been seen since his run at Haydock and I was keen to get a handle on where the land lies for Navajo Indy who appeared to be screaming out for a step up in trip last season when running on it strongly in very competitive 2m handicap hurdle events.
He got that step up in trip on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham before stepping up even further to the 3m at Haydock which to my mind would be a stamina a test too far.
After contacting Tom directly he kindly replied to provide an update on his wellbeing and said the following:
“He (Navajo Indy) is doing fine after not being right after Haydock. We have given him time and hope to have him out in the next couple of weeks all being well.”
I loved that Tom sent him to Cheltenham in October to see how he coped with the unique character of the course and that form has stacked up well. He finished second to French Ship having given him 1lb in weight and may have got closer than the finishing 3.75L deficit had he not make a slight mistake at two out which lost him some momentum. French Ship then backed up that victory with a win at Newbury and is now a massive 18lbs higher than when running at Prestbury Park.
The third in the race was Bowensonfire for the KDTA syndicate who was in receipt of 2lbs from Navajo Indy and beaten 1.5L. He went on to achieve a finishing position of one place better on each of his next two starts. Second at Fairyhouse before winning a 2m handicap over Christmas at Leopardstown. He myself is now 9lbs higher than when running at Cheltenham.
Add in the fact that there was a Grand Annual winner back in fifth place and that the team at Tom’s operation in Herefordshire have tasted success in the Grade 3 Gerry Fielden, Listed success with Royale Margaux as well as landing an International Hurdle has shown that they can dine at the top tables when the ammunition is provided.
I mentioned that the first and third from that race at Cheltenham have gone up 18lbs and 9lbs since, and it’s worth mentioning that Navajo Indy is up 3lbs for his effort in second place. He clearly would appear to have a good bit in hand and what would be even more pleasing is his form over obstacles, in his career to date, and the fact that so many of these runs have come in big fields which is a big plus when thinking about a potential tilt at The Coral Cup:
1st of 13
2nd of 16
2nd of 16
3rd of 4
1st of 10
1st of 14
1st of 13 (Grade 3)
4th of 14
3rd of 17 (Grade 3)
2nd of 20
13th of 17 (when not right at Haydock)
If that’s not ultra consistent then I don’t know what is!
There’s so many positives with the form-lines, the course form, the consistency, and further improvement not ruled out given he’s had just the one run over the intermediate trip. The only reservation is that should Navajo Indy have this race as a big aim for the season connections and anyone planning to bet him will have to keep our fingers crossed that he gets into the race. The average bottom rating of the Coral Cup for the last decade is 135.6 and the race heavily favours those who are rated much higher than the 132 mark that this runner holds. What would be encouraging is that he would have got into two of the last five renewals (2021 & 2024) so it may be worth sitting and waiting for entries and the weights but at a current 50/1 he makes plenty of appeal.
JORDANS CROSS
ANTHONY HONEYBALL
Jack Richards Novice Chase @ 12/1
The Plate Handicap Chase - Not Quoted
A statement was put down by Jordans Cross on the weekend of Trials Day at Cheltenham and his success in the first race on Saturday has proven to be a fantastic guide towards finding festival winners in the past with winners going on to succeed in over multiple trips subsequent of winning this race.
It had most notably been a great guide for The Plate with those onto lineup in the intermediate handicap chase which is now changed to the Tuesday, having a record of: 22121
Now there aren’t any quotes for Jordan’s Cross for that race, even though he has had the required four runs over fences. Granted, they include a fall at this venue earlier in the season but that came at the final obstacle and surely there is enough form that’s been shown from him for the handicap to allow that as one of his qualification runs should connections choose to go down the root of competing in company rather than the novice race that’s been re-introduced last season.
He is unbeaten over fences when staying on his feet and given the fantastic attitude shown to climb the hill on Saturday you could argue that he would be 4 for 4 had he stayed on his feet that in November. He has shown plenty of progression throughout this season and who’s to say where his ceiling is.
Anthony Honeyball and team have amassed 27 winners at Graded and Listed level and have circa 65 horses in training and would appear to have a fantastic chance at adding to that total in the Jack Richards Novice Chase or if the route take is open handicapping at the Cheltenham festival then silverware could be added to the mantle piece in The Plate.
Monopoly Sports
JAZZY MATTY
CIAN COLLINS
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual @ 14/1
Cian Collins put together a fantastic training performance to get Jazzy Matty to the Grand Annual last season and he clearly arrived in great condition and evidently very well handicapped.
I don’t have to make a huge case for him repeating the same feat that he achieved 12 months ago, so in short, he’s only 7lbs higher for his win in 2025 and given that he has only just turned 7-years-old there could be more improvement to come. It will certainly be a tricky task as 10 of the last 12 winner’s have tried follow up the following year with 0 succeeding and just 2 hitting the places. However, had it not been for Jazzy Matty then Unexpected Party would have achieved the repeat so it’s proven that they can return in very good form and run to a high level.
He’s had a similar campaign to last season with a couple of starts over the smaller obstacles and if you were to get good ground come the festival week coupled with the return to chasing could see him achieve what the last decade of winners haven’t.
MUNSIF
CHARLES BYRNES
Hallgarten & Novum Wines Handicap @ 25/1
Charles Byrnes has had some good prospects in recent years with the likes of Blazing Khal who look destined to be one of the big players in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle before he was suddenly ruled out through injury and never quite recovered from that setback to go on and be the horse that everybody anticipated he may become.
He was considerably closer to a recent Cheltenham Festival success with Byker in 2023 when he was backed off the boards in the lead up to what was then The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and was sent off at 6/1 and went down by the margin of just a neck to the winner who also happens to be entry number three in this list, Jazzy Matty. I’m sure that connections will still rue that day and feel that it was one that got away.
That nicely leads me onto Munsif who would appear to be a very live contender for the same race in 2026, albeit under new sponsorship. From Hallgarten & Novum Wines. Munsif has had two starts over hurdles which leaves him one short of the required number of runs for qualification. Those two runs have been extremely eye-catching with him being ridden with plenty of education in mind but has stayed on well in each of those contests and to my surprise, given connections, he still remains a very nice price for this target.
I would imagine that he will lineup in the race at Naas on Sunday 22nd of February but he also holds an entry for this weekend in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown in the signature Juvenile race of the Dublin Racing Festival.
Either way, it would appear that there are plenty of opportunities for him to get that third and final outing that he requires and subsequent of that run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of market support and the current 25/1 that is on offer to quickly disappear.
He could have very good claims come the final field in March and although this is an extremely difficult puzzle to solve in any given year, Charles Byrnes could well go one place better than the 2023 renewal with this former flat horse who achieved an very tidy rating of 93.
The general rule of thumb is to add 45lbs to a flat rating and that will give you an indicative mark for what his ability could translate to over obstacles so keep a handicap mark of 138 in your mind and once the handicapper has completed his assessment and you’ve analysed his form from this season so far, you can then make a judgement on what you feel he may still have up his sleeve, if anything.
I’LL SORT THAT
DECLAN QUEALLY
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle @ 16/1
Turners Novice Hurdle @ 16/1
When looking at this list it was impossible to leave out I’ll Sort That.
When the Stable Driver takes the horses to the course is also the trainer, it shows you the scale of the operation. Then you throw into the equation that not only is he steering the horse box but once arriving at the racecourse, he then does the steering in the saddle, you find yourself with an incredible appreciation for what some yards are doing to ensure they can make a living from the sport and is something I find incredibly endearing and a great reminder of what is special about National Hunt Racing.
The Grade 1 Ballymore Novice Hurdle at Naas is a perfect reference point that links back to the start of this piece with many focussing on Sortudo and Saint Baco but it was a real David vs Goliath story with I’ll Sort That completing a four-timer and he was seriously game on the run in to remain un beaten over hurdles.
He set a good time figure and although many bashed the race as being one of poor quality that again feeds into the “big trainer bias” and a real lack of appreciation for the winner and the race overall. Irrespective, it was a great victory and he could still represent value at 16/1 for both the Turners and Albert Bartlett.
Summary
There are plenty of other trainers that could have made the list and there will be a lot of live chances for the smaller yards come March and I’d encourage everyone to look at the other 25 races away from the novice hurdle events and looking away from where everyone else is looking can find not only unique angles but more importantly, great value!
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