Jake Price casts his eye over the latest Cheltenham handicap weights reveals, and gives us his ante-post tip for the Jack Richards.
Cheltenham Festival 2026
With just two weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival it is an extremely exciting time of year, and this week’s Ante-Post article is going to be all about the Handicap weights which were revealed on Tuesday.
Most of the British marks were already known of course, but we received crucial information on the Irish entries – and here I will include my analysis of how they were treated by the BHA Handicapping team.
HANDICAP WEIGHTS REVEAL
The eagerly anticipated Cheltenham Festival handicap weights were revealed on Tuesday, and plenty of eyes were drawn straight to Fred Winter favourite SARATOGA, who was handed an official BHA rating of 130. That was a 5lbs rise from his Irish mark which was published by the HRI on Monday, and is slightly above the average rise for the Juvenile Hurdlers as a whole of 4.29lbs. He certainly was not the harshest treated however, as KILMEADEN received an extra 7lbs on top of his Irish rating for Donnacha O’Brien. BARBIZON, MADNESS D'ELLE, DAWN COMING, WACKESTONE and KIZLYAR all received a 6lbs whacking from the BHA.
Among the nicest treated Juveniles were WIZARD OF OZ and SOPELANA who both only received 1lb worth 'tax', but at number 44 and 53 on the list respectively, neither are likely to be involved in the Fred Winter. Others treated on the more lenient side include SECRET FORCE and SELMA DE VARY, who both received 2lbs – although the latter named Willie Mullins Filly is much more likely to run in the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle instead.
| Year | Average Rise (Juveniles) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.29 |
| 2025 | 4.52 |
| 2024 | 2.87 |
| 2023 | 5.42 |
| 2022 | 3.3 |
| 2021 | 2.9 |
| 2020 | 4.6 |
This year the Handicap Hurdlers were raised by an average of 3.99lbs, which is slightly less than their four-year-old equivalents. YEAH MAN took the biggest hike of any horse at the meeting with a massive 10lbs added on for the Pertemps Final, whilst Martin Pipe fancies FRANKIE JOHN and ROC DINO both received 7lbs – although the latter named will probably appreciate the rise considering he is number 43 on the list currently. There is certainly a fairly predictable theme with the more unexposed types receiving the harshest rises, as Morebattle Hurdle entry I STARTED A JOKE and KEL HISTOIRE both received an additional 6lbs.
On the other end of the scale, THE YELLOW CLAY was left on his Irish mark of 155 for his entry in the Coral Cup. That looks particularly interesting with Gordon Elliott mentioning that they could book a claimer to ride should he turn up here. Other notable horses treated on the lenient side were County Hurdle entries ANZADAM and HELLO NEIGHBOUR, who both have more exposes profiles and as such only received one extra pound. Another horse who only received 1lb but with a much less exposed profile is LETOS, but he qualified for the Pertemps Final at Carlisle, which probably helped his cause.
| Year | Average Rise (Hurdles) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.99 |
| 2025 | 3.86 |
| 2024 | 3 |
| 2023 | 4.31 |
| 2022 | 4.9 |
| 2021 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | 4.4 |
Finally we get to the Handicap Chasers, who traditionally have a much lower differential due to the fact that they are largely horses we know a lot more about. This year they were raised by an average of 2.79lbs though, which was more than it has been in recent years. Chief amongst those horses driving up the average are the Cross Country horses such as FINAL ORDERS who received 9lbs and FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU who received 8lbs, but these rises seem higher than they should be due to the fact that the Irish handicapper does not reassess for Cross Country races. THE SHORT GO and DA CAPO GLORY received the highest rises outside of that unique race, with both carrying an additional 7lbs compared to back home.
Among the kindest treated in the chasing fraternity were INTHEPOCKET, DAILY PRESENT, CROKE PARK and WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT, who were among 10 horses left on their HRI marks. There were plenty of horses only raised 1lb too, with the most interesting including KOKTAIL DIVIN, WILL THE WISE, DOWNMEXICOWAY, BALLYSAX HANK and DOWN MEMORY LANE, who all have a plethora of options across the week.
| Year | Average Rise (Chasers) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.79 |
| 2025 | 2.19 |
| 2024 | 2 |
| 2023 | 3.07 |
| 2022 | 4 |
| 2021 | 2.3 |
| 2020 | 2.1 |
In terms of Horses who it is going to be worth keeping an eye on in terms of whether they will get in the race, KHRISMA probably heads that list in the County, where she is currently number 54 on the list. She would also be 3lbs outside of the weights should ANZADAM run. In the Martin Pipe current favourite A PAI DE NOM is number 56 on the list, so that is going to be a very interesting one to monitor as the declarations come in. Another towards the top of the market but the bottom of their list is MCLAUREY, who is number 51 in the Plate and 48 in the Jack Richards.
IN THE NEWS
The news just keeps coming at this time of year too, and the latest big absentee from the Cheltenham Festival is NARCISO HAS, who was ruled out of the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. That unfortunate injury has had huge implications on the market, where PROACTIF has now assumed favouritism ahead of SELMA DE VARY. We are quite fortunate that our slip on MANGE TOUT now has a huge chance once again, with her form linking in closely to the former favourite.
The other big piece of news this week surrounds CONSTITUTION HILL, who was ultra impressive on his Flat debut at Southwell on Friday night. On Wednesday it was announced that he would now pursue a Flat career in full which I am a big fan of, although it will be a big shame not to see him line up in the Champion Hurdle in a fortnights time. It does however improve our position on LOSSIEMOUTH, who surely has to line up in Tuesday’s feature race at this point.
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ANTE-POST TIP
My selection this week comes from one of the aforementioned leniently treated Chasers, as I think KOKTAIL DIVIN has huge claims in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, having only been raised 1lb to a mark of 150 despite bolting up by 21 lengths when last seen over Christmas.
This 6yo showed plenty of promise as a Novice Hurdler last season, but he certainly shaped like a big backwards baby – as he even travelled up very strongly in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree before fading back into 4th place in the closing stages. Going over fences looks to have made a man of him however, and he looks to be showing that talent now.
His Chase debut came at Down Royal at the end of October where he was up against ROMEO COOLIO, who has been one of the most impressive Novice Chasers of the season so far. He was no match for the winner, but he wasn’t given a hard time in second, and of the few fences they did jump, he did so without much fuss.
Connections decided to step him up in trip to 3m for the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown just 22 days later, and on this occasion the ground probably went slightly against him considering it was Soft to Heavy. Despite that he still travelled up like the best horse in the race, but I just don’t think he really saw out that extended trip when chasing home and finishing three lengths second to the dour stayer OSACARS BROTHER, who is rated 155 for the Grand National.
Over Christmas at Leopardstown on some quicker ground and dropped back in trip to 2m5½f everything clicked into gear however, as he made all of the running under Darragh O’Keeffe. He jumped with aplomb, travelled extremely strongly, and went on to record a bloodless 21 length success over KISS WILL – who is certainly no mug having been given a rating of 141 by the BHA. C’Est Ta Chance was also in that contest, and he has been rated 144.
In my eyes there is no chance that either of those horses could reverse form even in receipt of 9lbs and 6lbs respectively here, and I think that Henry de Bromhead’s 6yo could simply be a class above his rivals. In fairness he probably would be a Brown Advisory horse for most yards, but considering they also have THE BIG WESTERNER who is much shorter in the market, running KOKTAIL DIVIN over a much more favourable 2m4½f is surely the perfect scenario for Darragh O’Keeffe to split up two very nice chances.
What’s more is that there are plenty of potential non-runners still in the market too, with McLaurey front and centre as seemingly the Plate is his first preference. Jacob’s ladder has plenty of options including staying at home for Navan on Saturday, and Wendigo/Sixmilebridge also have the Brown Advisory option, with the former almost certain to run. Surely at least one of either Slade Steel or Waterford Whispers would also not run if everything goes to plan for our selection.
KOKTAIL DIVIN – Jack Richard Novices’ Handicap Chase – 1pt Win @ 7/1 NRNB
2026 CHELTENHAM BETS SO FAR
HONESTY POLICY – Stayers Hurdle @ 16/1 – Now 4/1
ACT OF INNOCENCE – Supreme @ 20/1 – NR
MANGE TOUT – Triumph @ 10/1 – Now 8/1
LA CONQUIERE – Mares Novice @ 12/1 – Now 14/1
JONBON – Ryanair @ 16/1 – Now 5/1
DOCTOR STEINBERG – Albert Bartlett @ 16/1 – Now 3/1
SARATOGA – Fred Winter @ 14/1 – Now 5/1
NEWTON TORNADO – NH Chase @ 14/1 – Now 7/1
BALLYFAD – Turners @ 8/1 NRNB – Now 8/1 NRNB
KARBAU – County @ 16/1 NRNB – Now 14/1 NRNB
THE PASSING WIFE – Martin Pipe @ 12/1 NRNB – Now 10/1 NRNB
KONFUSION – Ultima @ 20/1 NRNB – Now 16/1 NRNB
LOSSIEMOUTH – Champion Hurdle @ 4/1 NRNB – Now 11/4 NRNB
KOKTAIL DIVIN – Jack Richards @ 7/1 NRNB – Now 7/1 NRNB
