Our racing expert has found three bets for the Aintree showpiece in April.
Grand National
Once again, the revealing of the weights for this year’s Grand National caused great consternation among the training ranks, with many no doubt feeling their representatives are harshly treated by the handicapper. True, whether a horse carries 11-10 or 10st has some bearing on the result, but the main factors surely are whether a horse has the stomach and sufficient stamina – not to mention a sound jumping technique - to deal with the examination paper presented on April 4. 12st wasn’t enough to stop Red Rum in 1974 as he was just a freak, and the likes of Don’t Push It, Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges were all able to carry relatively big weights to victory just because plain and simply, they had plenty of class. Interestingly, the latter was responsible for the shortest winning margin in the race’s history of a nose, yet I wonder how many of you out there believe he wouldn’t have won if he had to carry an extra pound, and it had nothing to do with the fact he got a brilliantly conservative ride, jumped for fun and saved every inch of ground (he must have made up at least five lengths by cutting the corner at both Becher’s and the Canal Turn second time around).
Ryanair supremo Michael O’Leary is clearly obsessed by weight given the fact he refused to run several runners in last year’s Grand National because, in his view, they were unfairly treated by the handicapper Phil Smith. In the same way his airline penalises its customers for being the odd kilo overweight with baggage, the Cork-based businessman takes similar umbrage to his horses being a pound or two higher in the weights in the world’s greatest steeplechase – a contradiction in terms if ever there was one. One could argue that Rule The World, who carried his colours to victory in 2016, was well-in off 148 given that he had form in Grade 1 races previously, but the facts of the matter are, that Mouse Morris’ inmate took well to the fences, got into a lovely rhythm and avoided mishap along the way, which all added up to him running out a convincing six-length success. These factors surely count for more than the bare weights and measures in the 4m 2f stamina test, so it would seem absurd that anyone would quibble too much over what weight their respective horse must shoulder. Clearly, Mr O’Leary is a pragmatist and you must respect his views, but at the same time, there’s so many different factors involved in determining a Grand National winner that a pound or two either way shouldn’t cloud his vision to such an extent than it does.
One could argue that the assessor has been quite harsh on last year’s fourth Blaklion, who got beaten off a mark of 152 twelve months ago and yet now must race off a perch of 161. However, given the way he jumped and travelled last year and how that experience clearly impacted on his tremendous display in The Becher Chase on his return visit to the Liverpool venue back in December, it’s almost impossible to put a number on the possible improvement to come when he goes back there in April.
Total Recall is another who could easily have a huge say in the argument given his current wellbeing and it’s not hard to imagine him going well given the way he jumped and travelled in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury earlier in the season. A recent victory over hurdles – when he did quite well to overcome early keenness – went a little further to complete the perfect preparations to his bid. However, connections seemed to be dead-set on Gold Cup glory several weeks earlier, so getting involved from an ante-post stance is a treacherous occupation.
Having catapulted himself into the limelight in the early days of his training career, the Grand National will always be dear to the heart of Gordon Elliot, so it makes sense to look towards his potential runners with great scrutiny. Of his ten entries, CAUSE OF CAUSES (best price 25-1) is the first one that immediately jumps off the page having finished a brave runner-up to One For Arthur in last year’s renewal. The fact that he’s only had the one run so far this season, a pipe-opener over an inadequate 2m 5f, suggest connections are doing there best to keep him as fresh as possible in his bid to go one place better and with the likelihood of another bold show in the Cross Country contest at the Cheltenham Festival sure to put the finishing touches to his preparations, this tremendous little horse is a must for any shortlist.
Another one for his Longwood base to make plenty of appeal is NOBLE ENDEAVOR (best price 33-1) who has a profile of many previous winners of this race. First of all, he landed The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, which was one of the most competitive handicap chases run last season, and he followed that effort up by finishing in the money in both the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham and Irish National respectively. Not seen out since, presumably connections have deliberately keep their powder dry in order to keep him as fresh as possible and with the likelihood of the nine-year-old just have one spin over fences somewhere just to put a nice edge on him before Aintree, he should arrive on the day in peak condition.
Away from the bigger yards, another to catch the eye is a huge way is ABOLITIONIST (best price 33-1) who has yet to run for new connections following his switch from Ellmarie Holden’s yard in Ireland. Similar to his previous winner in 2014, Pineau De Re, Dr Newland has clearly pinpointed this horse as a potential Grand National winner, and it’s easy to see why the Worcestershire handler would have that view based on the 10-year-old’s overall profile. Second in last year’s Troytown was followed by a deserved success in the Leinster National and his terrific run of results was crowned off with an excellent third behind impressive winner Our Duke in the Irish Grand National. Looking back at some of the previous Irish winners at Aintree, the likes of Bobbyjo, Papillon, Numbersixvalverde and Rule The World had all come from a background of successful results in the 3m 5f marathon at Fairyhouse and that’s one of the main reasons this son of Flemensfirth is a must for the shortlist. Yet to make his UK debut, one would imagine that, using Pineau De Re’s preparations as a guide, Aboliltionist will be given a spin over hurdles at some stage to blow away the cobwebs and then maybe just one run over fences before tackling the big one in April (The Kim Muir muted as a possible target). Either way, this consistent and sound-jumping performer, who has yet to fall in 19 races over fences, remains unexposed over marathon trips and makes plenty of appeal at his current 33-1 quotes.
