Architect Tips runs the rule over recent betting trends in the Oddschecker Grand National Trial at Haydock and names his favourite ante-post selection.
Oddschecker Grand National Trial
12 months ago, Yeah Man became the first Irish-trained winner of this race in 29 years, and Gavin Cromwell’s charge will bid for back-to-back efforts after finishing an encouraging fourth in the Thyestes Chase last time out.
Grand National Trial Key Runners
Yeah Man is one of two Irish entries alongside the Gordon Elliott-trained Where It All Began, who was 11 places behind him (15th) in the latterly mentioned event at Gowran Park, with smart mares Apple Away and Sine Nomine in the field.
A few others to mention that remain in contention include the Welsh Grand National one-two, Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, plus David Pipe’s Gericault Roque, who shaped well after an absence when third at Windsor.
This year’s renewal looks wide open, so hopefully these trends and statistics might allow us to crunch down the numbers and potentially identify a value bet a few days in advance.
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Grand National Trial Betting Trends
Trainers to look out for…
There are two trainers who both saddle runners in this year’s edition that have standout records compared to the others. Lucinda Russell and Venetia Williams have both won the race three times in the past 20 renewals.
In this period, Venetia has had 22 runners, with three of those winning and nine placing. Backing all of her runners at level stakes would have returned you a healthy profit of +20 on the win and +25 on the each-way market. Her intended participants are (Royale Pagaille) and (Fontaine Collonges).
As for Lucinda, she has saddled far fewer runners, seven in total in fact, with three wins and three placed efforts and a profit of +20 on the win and +11 on the place market. Her only representative is (Apple Away).
20-Year Age Trend
Based on the last 20 renewals, eight-year-olds have the best record, winning the race six times. Those who qualify for this trend are Jubilee Express, Val Dancer, Yeah Man and Apple Away. As for the youngster, Fortunate Man, no six-year-old has won this race since it was first run in 1948, so this is a significant negative for him, though trends are there to be broken!
Arriving in good form counts for plenty…
This race has often been won by a horse who has finished in the top three prior to running in this race, with 16 of the last 22 winners achieving this. Jubilee Express, Val Dancer, Fortunate Man, Famous Bridge, Apple Away and Gericault Roque are the qualifiers for this useful statistic.
Previous course form is an advantage!
Seven of the last 12 winners all had at least one previous run at the course, with four of those having a previous win. That isn’t to say those who haven’t run here before can’t go well! Based on the previous course form, however, Apple Away, Famous Bridge, Fontaine Collonges, Iron Bridge, Jubilee Express, Royale Pagaille and Yeah Man have all won or placed here before.
Grand National Trial Tips & Predictions
Taking into account most of the trends, I’m really interested in the double-figure odds about APPLE AWAY. Lucinda Russell’s mare has run Siri credit to finish runner-up in Listed events against her own sex the last two times, and she’s worth another shot at a marathon event.
Her only previous start in an extremely long-distance event was when she finished a well-beaten fifth in last season’s National Hunt Chase. However, she is lurking on a dangerous mark of 138, and this Grade 1-winning hurdler even beat Grand National leading contender Iroko (may miss the race) in that event at Aintree.
She finished a distant third on her previous course start, but that came on her return behind the likes of Grey Dawning (won the Betfair Chase at the track since) and Gaillard Du Mesnil, who had previously placed in the Grand National.
If this mare can get into a rhythm, I see no reason why she cannot outrun her odds and pose a serious threat for a trainer who has an excellent record in the race.
