Jake Price's Betting Tips for Aintree Grand National Day

12:45 Aintree

Something I have taken on board more than ever this season is that you cannot be afraid of taking on a short price favourite if you have genuine reasons to do so, and I think that simply has to be the case with Salvator Mundi. On Hurdles form alone he would absolutely wipe the floor with these lot, and many will call back to his Top Novices’ Hurdle performance 12 months ago when making their case – but this isn’t a hurdles race, it is a steeplechase.

His Chase debut when turned over at 1/7f by Kappa Jy Pyke doesn’t read as badly now as it did at the time, but next time out in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown he was hopeless when beaten 22 lengths by Romeo Coolio. He did get his head in front at Thurles in February when bolting up by 28 lengths when once again sent off the 1/7f, but he was very much entitled to beat stablemate Fishery Lane by a distance that far. Overall, he is yet to show the same sort of level over fences as he reached over timber, and therefore I am more than happy to take him on this time at 10/11f.

One horse in this line up who I think on Chase form you can guarantee would do the same if not better than the favourite if running in the same races is MIGHTY BANDIT, and he has been totally transformed over the larger obstacles having realistically been a huge disappointment in his early days with Warren Greatrex.

Since finishing second to Mambonumberfive (146) on his Chase debut at Newbury back in November he has gone on an extraordinary run, starting with a victory over Thursday’s Red Rum second Highlands Legacy and subsequent Premier Handicap winner Lookaway. On his next two starts he completed two absolute demolition jobs at Doncaster however, jumping with aplomb and winning by 8 lengths off a mark of 134, before winning by 17 lengths off a mark of 142.

That latest effort at the end of March was a tremendous performance that certainly marks him down as deserving his chance at Grade 1 level, and if he can put in a similar performance at Aintree then he will take horses out of their comfort zones. Doncaster is a very similar track to Aintree in that it is relatively flat, left-handed and with stiff fences – but I also believe that the better ground on Saturday will suit him well.

MIGHTY BANDIT 1pt Win @ 5/1

13:55 Aintree

My selection in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in Ballyfad is declared here, but I am still unsure if his poor performance was a result of the kick he received beforehand, or if it was because he did not like the quicker ground. One of two Horses who really caught my eye in the Turners though was BOSSMAN JACK, and he looks to have a favourites chance here.

This 6yo travelled extremely wide down the hill, but despite that passage he made up a lot of ground from a fairly uncompromising position. Going down to the last he was making serious inroads with the leaders, but he completely messed up that flight, and in the end had to settle for sixth. Considering the momentum he lost that was still a very good effort however, and to my eye he is going to be a serious horse when he puts it all together.

Despite stablemate Soldier Reeves running on ahead of him into third place in that contest, Harry Skelton still keeps the faith with our selection, and that shows the regard he is held in at home. I think that a track like Aintree will suit this horse perfectly too as he clearly has plenty of pace, and he will certainly enjoy the ground more than the Elliott horse.

BOSSMAN JACK 1pt Win @ 5/2

14:30 Aintree

This 3m1f Handicap Chase that precedes the Grand National has a very naughty Dan Skelton plot job heading the market in MR HOPE STREET, and I think he could take some stopping here if you have a look at what he has already achieved in his short career over fences to date.

This 8yo ended up being quite prolific over hurdles once he began tackling handicaps, and he racked up four victories to go from a mark of 91 to 124. Connections were then very keen on his chances in the 3m Handicap Hurdle on this card 12 months ago, but unfortunately he was balloted out of the race and ended up going to the Cheltenham April meeting instead, where he ran a good race in third place but probably just didn’t handle the hill.

Going over fences I can only assume that getting him handicapped was the plan once again, as on Chase debut he was never really put into the race at Carlisle when The Jukebox Kid ran away with it from the front. Next time out in a Graduation Chase at Haydock is where his real potential over fences was highlighted however, as despite being a late drifter in the market out to 14/1, he ran an absolute belter to finish in third place behind The Jukebox Man (168) and Iroko (156) – only being beaten 6.25 lengths and 3.75 lengths respectively.

Unfortunately for team Skelton he was met with a setback after that Haydock effort and missed 105 days as a result, but they managed to rush him back for a 2m4f Novices’ Handicap Chase at Sandown on the 7th March as a preparation race for Aintree. Once again he was a big drifter in the market, and once again he was never really put into the race – but finishing in fourth place was job done as far as his preparation for his big day was concerned. Now stepped back up in trip to 3m1f and running off a 1lb lower mark of 130, he surely is going to take all of the beating.

MR HOPE STREET 1pt Win @ 11/4

15:05 Aintree

I am still not quite sure what exactly went wrong with HONESTY POLICY in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, as he was bang there at the last but faded very tamely up the run in. Now perhaps you can put a lot of that down to him not handling the track, but it was a very flat effort overall, and maybe not getting a prep-run into him before the Festival was another factor going against him.

He has shown plenty of ability on flat tracks in the past however; namely winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle on this card last year, finishing half-a-length second to Jasmin De Vaux at Punchestown, and of course running on for third in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December. With that all in mind, a return to Aintree might just be the key to unlocking the clear talent he possesses, and as such I want to give him one more chance now that a tongue-tie is also added.

HONESTY POLICY 1pt Win @ 3/1

16:00 Aintree

It is a wide open Grand National this year in my opinion, but one horse being fairly overlooked is the Ultima Handicap Chase winner JOHNNYHWHO. All of the talk around the race has been Iroko this and Jagwar that, but I was impressed with what Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s 9yo did at Cheltenham, as the combination of first-time cheekpieces and a wind operation seemed to work the oracle.

Just like most of these, the Grand National has very much been on his agenda this season too, highlighted by the fact that he began his campaign in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase to have a bit of a sighter over the fences. He handled them with no bother at all so that is very much a tick in his box, but what is more is that he also had to deal with a horse falling in front of him – and he very nimbly was able to avoid being brought down which again is a big positive.

The objective for his season at that point was simply to ensure that he was kept around the same sort of mark of 146 for the Grand National itself, and next time out at Ascot he stayed on very strongly from a poor position to only be beaten half-a-length into third – which was some effort considering it was at the time where the O’Neill yard was shut down for around a month due to illnesses. He didn’t run quite so well in the Peter Marsh when sent off 10/3f and having to settle for fifth, but connections sent him straight for a wind-operation afertwards.

After a 52 day break he returned in the Ultima Handicap Chase where he was sent off quite an unfancied 18/1 shot, but which the cheekpieces on he travelled through his race with ease. What I absolutely loved about the performance is that he simply jumped and travelled wherever Richie McLernon wanted him to go, and after weaving through traffic he found plenty up the hill to go on and score by half-a-length, and whilst perhaps Jagwar threw in the towel to an extent, he still held off Quebecois quite cosily.

Due to the weights already being published JOHNNYWHO now gets to run in the Grand National off that same mark of 146, which means he is 6lbs ‘well-in’ at the weights as he should be rated 152 following that victory. With more improvement to come and this track, trip and fences unlikely to cause him any issues, I think he has a huge chance carrying just 10st4lbs.

It would be rude to go into a Grand National without any Willie Mullins representation however, and the one I want to have on side is LECKY WATSON, who has a very similar profile to that of Grangeclare West when he ran such a gallant race in third place last year. Our selection was also a Grade 1 winning Novice Chaser having landed the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival just over a year ago, but clearly connections quickly decided that he was not a Gold Cup horse – so instead they have minded him for the National.

In order to do that they have ran him in all of the big Grade 1s where he had little chance, but he did run his best race in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas where he encountered the best ground he has had all season. That seventh placed effort just behind the likes of Grangeclare West and Monty’s Star was a good one, and when last seen in the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase where he carried a 12lbs penalty I thought he showed plenty of zest before fading tamely in the closing stages owing to the Heavy ground. A return to quicker ground is a necessity with him, and off a mark of 158 I think he is very reasonably treated.

JOHNNYWHO 1pt EW (6 Places) @ 12/1
LECKY WATSON 0.5pts EW (6 Places) @ 33/1