Jake Price recaps the key moments from last week’s racing and offers an ante-post tip ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
A belated renewal of the Dublin Racing Festival took centre stage in providing us with more Festival clues this week, and as such I will be reviewing all of the Graded action with my Ante-Post hat on. It is often thought of as the most important weekend before Cheltenham, and despite plenty giving out about the testing conditions, I once again think we have learnt a great deal of useful information.
WEEK IN REVIEW
We start our review of the week on the Thursday before the Dublin Racing Festival, where EL CAIROS got off the mark over hurdles at Thurles. The race was run at an absolute crawl, but after they quickened going down to the last it was almost a case of déjà vu – as he made a mistake but this time found a leg. Jack Kennedy blamed himself for the mistake, but seemingly the market is not too worried about his antics as he is into 11/2 for the Supreme.
On Saturday we were due for the Dublin Racing Festival to kick off, but unfortunately the Day 1 card was pushed back until Monday due to the incessant rain. We did have a billed clash of two Irish horses in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown. With KITZBUHEL unseating early on and KALA CONTI never looking happy that ‘clash’ very quickly dissipated, but we were left with SIXMILEBRIDGE winning nicely enough for the Fergal O’Brien team. The handicapper only rising him 1lb to a mark of 150 says a fair amount about what he thought of it though.
We got plenty more Brown Advisory clues in the 2m5½f Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday however, where the DRF was belatedly able to get started. Hot favourite FINAL DEMAND very much disappointed with a poor round of jumping and a tame finishing effort, but KAID D’AUTHIE was impressive in victory and has quite rightly moved into 5/1 for the 3m Novice Chase at Cheltenham in March.
The 2m Grade 1 Novice Hurdle was a much more interesting beating heat, and the big three in the market certainly came to the forefront of proceedings. BALLYFAD ran well from the front and dug deep to see off the stronger travelling KING RASKO GREY, but right on the line TALK THE TALK got his nose in front to secure victory. He was very much inconvenienced by his position off the pace that day so you can mark the performance up, but I do still have reservations regarding his Supreme price of 5/1.
We ended Sunday with MAJBOROUGH putting in visually his most impressive round of jumping to date in the Dublin Chase, and he absolutely bolted up to turn the Champion Chase on its head. Should the Cheltenham Festival come up Soft or worse I really struggle to see him beat. Another horse who would probably want similar conditions is BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD, who reversed form with LOSSIEMOUTH in the Irish Champion Hurdle. That may resign the latter’s fate to the Mares Hurdle.
On the rearranged Monday card we started with a bang, as DOCTOR STEINBERG absolutely bolted up in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacey Novice Hurdle. He was a little keen in the early stages due to the slow pace, but stepping up in trip to 2m6f for the first time he consistently galloped all the way through to the line. The Albert Bartlett is absolutely the right race for him with further improvement surely to come over three miles, and we are in a great Ante-Post position as he is now best priced 3/1.
Our Ante-Post fortunes weren’t so kind in the following Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle however, as MANGE TOUT saw her form with NARCISO HAS rather comprehensively reversed. She ran fine and will still go to the Triumph Hurdle with her chance, but the Willie Mullins winner was very impressive, and is into 7/4 for the Friday Grade 1. In the Irish Arkle ROMEO COOLIO was a strange winner, but he was certainly made to work extremely hard by KARGESE.
Not only was he off the bridle first, but once his stamina kicked in and he got to the lead, the mare picked up again and made him work all the way to the line. I am firmly of the opinion that he is an out-and-out 2m4f horse, but with his owners only wanting to know about Cheltenham, perhaps the Arkle is where we will see him next.
We will finish our review of the weekend with the Irish Gold Cup, which on paper looked an absolute barnstormer of a contest. I certainly was not expecting both GAELIC WARRIOR and FACT TO FILE to turn up and take on the king GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, but he still ran a grand race in third – perhaps suggesting a changing of the guard. GAELIC WARRIOR was too keen in the early stages and I wonder if the Ryanair will now be for him, but the winner FACT TO FILE finally silenced his critics and proved he stays three miles.
The big question now is whether JP McManus will supplement him for the Gold Cup on Saturday 7th March.
NEWS ROUNDUP
We get plenty of news updates regarding Cheltenham horses on a daily basis this time of year, so in this section I will round up all of the most important bits which you may have missed. The main story so far this week surrounds KOPEK DES BORDES, who missed his intended engagement in the Irish Arkle. Considering how much of a hard race that was it might have worked out in his favour, and on Tuesday he was seen at Punchestown after racing to school over some fences. He will go straight to the Arkle now.
We had scratchings for some of the Grade 1 Chases this week, and among the notable names in the Ryanair were GREY DAWNING, THE JUKEBOX MAN, and MAJBOROUGH – who all now only have one option. Olly Murphy had some unfortunate news with LONG DRAW ruled out of the Pertemps Final, and Dan Skelton also shared an update which stated that County Hurdle favourite LIVE CONTI had picked up a tendon strain, and that he would miss the Cheltenham Festival.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Two of our selections have a chance of enhancing their reputations heading into the Cheltenham Festival this weekend, beginning with SARATOGA in the 4YO Rated Novice Hurdle at Naas. This is the infamous Fred Winter ‘trial’ which has produced the likes of Band Of Outlaws, Aramax, Brazil and Jazzy Matty in the past – and the entry looks very strong, so our lad will not even have to win it in order to receive a form boost.
On Sunday comes the turn of Stayers Hurdle pick HONESTY POLICY, who is entered up in the 2m6f Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan. I did think after Ascot that he would probably benefit from having another run before March, and this is shaping up to be a decent test of his credentials with Hiddenvalley Lake also in there, but equally if the ground is bottomless then perhaps avoiding a slog this close to Cheltenham would not be such a bad thing.
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ANTE-POST SELECTION
This week I am finally going to attack the Turners Novices’ Hurdle market, which is one I have had my eye on for some time now. I have respect for No Drama This End who has headed this market for some time, but we have been in this position many times before with Paul Nicholls horses heading the market after only winning on the bridle in England – just think back to the likes of Hermes Allen, Bravemansgame et al.
Instead, the one who has emerged for me is BALLYFAD, and he looks an exciting prospect for a test like this.
This point-to-point winner started off his campaign with two grinding bumper victories at Down Royal followed by Punchestown, but on Boxing Day connections decided to send him over hurdles rather than going down the Champion Bumper route.
Running in the 4yo Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, this Gordon Elliott horse made all of the running and ran out a very impressive 9.5 length winner over Leader D’Allier – and that form has since taken a big boost with the runner-up scoring by that same margin at Punchestown last week.
That form boost was the final piece of evidence I needed in order to back BALLYFAD in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday, and once again he set out his still out in front. What I absolutely loved from his performance was how well he jumped the second last when he needed a big jump, and it can’t have been a coincidence that his jumping improved when King Rasko Grey moved to his outer.
The most impressive part of his performance to me though was how much he found off the bridle, as the Willie Mullins runner certainly travelled up best of all – but our lad kept fighting under pressure, and after the last he was beginning to draw away from his rival, before the pair were ultimately claimed on the line by Supreme bound Talk The Talk.
He clearly hasn’t lost anything in defeat being beaten a short head, but I was very happy to hear Gordon Elliott say that they are thinking about stepping him up in trip to the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, rather than going to the much stronger Supreme. I would imagine that front and centre leading those calls would be Jack Kennedy, as he will obviously be on El Cairos in the Supreme, but he is unlikely to want to give up the ride on this lad either.
Should Jack be aboard in the Turners where he can travel into the race for longer before showing how much he finds off the bridle I think he would have leading claims, and the 8/1 NRNB is a great price to find out with our money back should connections change their mind. The only other horse in the race I would want to back right now is Mighty Park, and he could very easily end up running in the Supreme instead.
Best Bet: BALLYFAD – Turners Novice Hurdle – 1pt Win @ 8/1 NRNB
2026 BETS SO FAR
HONESTY POLICY – Stayers Hurdle @ 16/1 – Now 7/2
ACT OF INNOCENCE – Supreme @ 20/1 – Now 50/1
MANGE TOUT – Triumph @ 10/1 – Now 16/1
LA CONQUIERE – Mares Novice @ 12/1 – Now 16/1
JONBON – Ryanair @ 16/1 – Now 5/1
DOCTOR STEINBERG – Albert Bartlett @ 16/1 – Now 3/1
SARATOGA – Fred Winter @ 14/1 – Now 10/1
NEWTON TORNADO – NH Chase @ 14/1 – Now 10/1
BALLYFAD – Turners @ 8/1 NRNB – Now 8/1 NRNB
