Jibber Jabber's Saturday Royal Ascot Tips & Betting Preview

2.30 Ascot – Humidity 4/1 (0.5pt ew)

We kick off the final day of Royal Ascot with a 9-runner Listed race over 7f, and HUMIDITY (4/1) looks just about an each-way price — potentially a bit of a "bet to nothing".

That is, if you back him each way and he finishes 2nd or 3rd, you’ll get most of your stake back, and if he wins, you’ll be paid on both the win and place parts of the bet. With two strong contenders at the head of the market, this looks the most sensible way to approach the race.

Trained by the in-form Andrew Balding (Last 14 days: 16-77, 21%), Humidity made a smart winning debut over 6f at Newbury 36 days ago. 

After the race, Balding said: “Humidity is a lovely horse with a bright future. Six [furlongs] was going to be his minimum, and there were some nice types in that race. I liked the way he did things throughout.”

That form is working out extremely well, with the 4th, 7th, 10th, and 11th all winning since.

Since then, the 2-year-old colt has changed ownership, now running for Wathnan Racing, and he’s certainly bred to improve — being a brother to Holloway Boy, who won this very race in 2022.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan, added: “We were impressed with him when he won from the front at Newbury, and the form is working out. Charlie Appleby’s horse looked very good at Newmarket, but we’re hopeful of a big run.”

I'm hopeful of a big run too.

3.05 Ascot – Bellum Justum 20/1 (0.5pt ew)

I hoped this 12-runner Group 2 might throw up something at a price, but I've struggled to confidently single out the most likely winner from the bigger-priced runners. The main ones catching my eye were Palladium (11/1), Candleford (16/1), Burdett Road (20/1), TableTalk (20/1), and BELLUM JUSTUM (20/1).

After much consideration, I’ve sided with BELLUM JUSTUM, who posted a career-best RPR of 115 two starts back when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket – a performance that may have been helped by the first-time cheek-pieces, which are retained today. 

He flopped last time in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, but softer Going was blamed, and to be honest, I’m not sure why they ran him there with this race marked out as a target earlier in the season.

His trainer, Andrew Balding (last 14 days: 15–76, 20%), is in cracking form, and Bellum Justum’s win on Firm ground at Kentucky last August is a big plus with the ground here riding fast all week. He also has course form, having finished 3rd of 12 in last year’s Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at the Royal meeting.

He will be approaching peak fitness on his fourth start of the season, and although he’s not my most confident pick of the day, there are enough reasons to think he could outrun his odds and he may just prove best suited by today's conditions. Bet365 and Sky Bet are both offering 4 places, which makes him worth an each way look.

4.20 Ascot – California Dreamer 6/1 (0.5pt ew)

This 15-runner Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks competitive, but CALIFORNIA DREAMER stands out. She’s been progressive this year, capped by a strong 2nd of 12 in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh 27 days ago, where she posted an impressive RPR of 111—finishing ahead of yesterday’s Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner and third-place finisher by 1¾ and 5¼ lengths respectively.

In the Guineas, she was still leading at the 7-furlong mark, making today’s drop back to a stiff 7f ideal. She only gave best to the 118-rated Victoria Lake, and there’s nothing in this field of similar calibre. Being the only filly in the line-up, she receives 3lb from her male counterparts.

Jockey David Egan says: “She looks great and feels great. She posted a career high in the Curragh and drops back in class and trip. She’s taking on the colts but gets the allowance — I’m very much looking forward to it.”

She’s worth backing at current prices, with 4 places available at most firms, and Sky Bet paying 5 - making them the obvious choice if you can get on.

5.00 Ascot – City House 28/1 (0.5pt ew) & Completely Random 22/1 (0.5pt ew)

In the spirit of full transparency, I think the two at the head of the market — More Thunder (100/30) and Jarraaf (5/1) — have strong winning chances in this 28-runner handicap. 

However, since this is the final race I’m tipping in at this year’s Royal Ascot, I thought you might appreciate us going out swinging. So I’ve taken a shot with two riskier each-way plays at bigger prices.

CITY HOUSE caught my eye on his British return 41 days ago, running a RPR of 107 when making up good late ground after being held up towards the back over 6f on the All-Weather at Newcastle in a race in which it was an advantage to be handy. 

That came after an excellent winter campaign in Bahrain, where he posted improving RPRs of 90, 95, 99, and 104. Back on turf, suited by a fast run stiff 6f, he could easily step forward again.

Trainer George Scott said: “He was very progressive on fast ground in Bahrain, so conditions won’t be a problem. He goes there in good shape, but the concern is his low draw in stall 5.”

That low draw is where the risk lies, especially with a clear bias emerging in favour of higher stalls this week. That said, Venetian Sun and Time For Sandals both won from stall 1 yesterday, so a low draw isn’t necessarily a death sentence. If he can latch onto a pace angle like Ten Pounds (stall 4), who made all two starts ago, he could easily outrun his odds.

My second runner is COMPLETELY RANDOM, who’s been targeted at this race for some time. After his Leicester win in April, trainer Harry Charlton said:

“We’re delighted with that. He’s very progressive, straightforward, and effective over five or six furlongs. We had this race in mind after his win at Southwell and the plan is to prepare him for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot.”

He finished 5th at Newbury last time out, beaten 2.5 lengths — not disgraced considering he met trouble in running. He runs off the same mark here, will be fine on the ground, and is nicely drawn in stall 14, giving him flexibility to track the stand-side pace. With a bit of luck, there’s definitely more to come.