Steve Richardson picks out his best bets from Saturday's showdown between England and Wales.
Because that is where they will need to be when they tackle Wales at Twickenham on Saturday in what is rightly being billed as the Six Nations title-decider even if France could still have a say next week. Wales may not have impressed with flowing rugby this tournament but they have shown plenty of guts - drawing in Dublin in round one after a slow start, weathering a Scotland first-half storm in Cardiff and then fending off a physical if still fits-and-bursts France - and they are a set-up full of champions and successful Lions, who find a way to thrive on the big Test match stage.
This will be a huge occasion with a vibrant and expectant home crowd and England have lost every one of these since 2011. Subduing the Scots, trampling Italy after a scrappy first half and bulldozing an under-strength Ireland - but not to the extent of deserving a double-figure margin of victory - is not enough proof of a brand new dawn. Back Wales with a six-and-half point start.
Wales won at Twickenham on the way to the Grand Slam in 2012 and destroyed a previously perfect England in the final round the following year to keep the title on points difference. In 2014, Wales had already been walloped by Ireland when they put up a strangely off-key effort at Twickenham. Complacency could have set in last year when Wales took an early lead in Cardiff against an injury-hit England and got turned over, but when the personnel-situation was reversed at Twickenham in the World Cup, they got their revenge.
England were the dominant side in that World Cup clash but they couldn't shake off Wales because they kept conceding penalties at the set-piece and breakdown, and then they were stunned by an off-the-cuff, scrambled try by scrum-half Gareth Davies. George North scored one of those - after a huge punt downfield into space - to put clear water on the scoreboard between Wales and France a fortnight ago.
England have infringed regularly at the set-piece and breakdown this tournament without it stopping them so far. It should do if it continues against Wales with Autumn chief tormentor Dan Biggar's accurate boot either slotting kicks or putting his side deep in England territory for training-pitch moves to be called.
Wales's defence kept out a last-gasp England close-range lineout in their World Cup win and conceded only one try in narrow defeats to Australia and South Africa afterwards. And it has continued to look strong in this tournament so Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje, George Kruis and Dylan Hartley may not be able to punch holes quite so frequently for England.
Wales head coach Warren Gatland has also got some excellent pack-replacements in Paul James, Luke Charteris and Justin Tipuric to counter the expected second-half surge from the home side, who will relish being able to release Manu Tuilagi from the bench. Wales No. 8 Taulupe Faletau and Locks Alun-Wyn Jones and Bradley Jones are wrecking balls themselves with ball in hand.
Because a close encounter is expected, there are some big prices about anytime tryscorers and three that take the eye are 9-2 Gareth Davies, 7-1 Jonathan Davies and 11-2 Danny Care.
Gareth Davies scored for fun at the World Cup including against England and crossed against Scotland from broken play. He loves to snipe around the fringes with the pace of a winger and Scum-Half Conor Murray dived over from the bottom of a ruck for Ireland at Twickenham two weeks ago.
England have also had a problem in recent history keeping out Wales centres and one tactic they will surely be using is Inside Centre Jamie Roberts and the Backrow running in the channel at George Ford and Owen Farrell. If this works there will be space when the ball is recycled for Outside Centre Jonathan Davies, picked by Gatland instead of Brian O'Driscoll for the deciding Third Lions Test in Australia in 2013, to make his trademark angled runs.
Wales will be loving the fact that they can call upon another livewire Scrum-Half in Rhys Webb on the replacements bench but England back-up nine Danny Care looks even tastier for a touchdown. Care lit the touch paper against Italy in Rome last month after coming on with his trademark darts and England will be ramping up the pressure in the second half trying to create the space in which he flourishes.