oddschecker expert Graham Ruthven gives his predictions for the French Open Men's Final 2022.
Rafael Nadal (5) v Casper Ruud (8)
Nadal has been here before. Quite a few times before, actually. Indeed, Sunday will be the 36-year-old’s 14th French Open final and never before has he lost the showpiece match at Roland Garros. With this in mind, the ‘King of Clay’ is the strong favourite to add another Grand Slam title to his collection this weekend.
Injuries, however, have been a problem for Nadal of late. He has even raised the prospect of his own retirement more than once in recent weeks. The early retirement of Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals stopped the unearthing of any actual evidence, but there is a lingering sense that Nadal might not be able to last the distance on Sunday. The longer Ruud can stretch out the match, the more it will favour him.
Against Cilic, Ruud found a higher level of serving not always associated with him. He will need to replicate that serving performance to earn free points against Nadal otherwise the Norwegian could find himself ground down in the rallies and by the whipped forehand of his opponent on the other side of the net.
Both finalists have spent essentially the same time on court over the last two weeks (around 18 hours) and Ruud can take encouragement from how he improved with every set he played against Cilic in the final four. Nadal will almost certainly dictate many of the points in Sunday’s final, but Ruud has the craft and stamina to hang around.
Despite getting through to the final, Nadal’s performance against Zverev was strewn with errors. The Spaniard struggled to build momentum as the match swung back and fourth several times, but demonstrated trademark fighting spirit throughout, including in the first set tie-break when he saved four set points in-a-row to take a 1-0 advantage.
Ruud’s best chance of victory might come if the roof on Court Philippe Chatrier is closed. In indoor conditions, the clay court surface at this year’s French Open has played remarkably slowly, as noted by both Nadal and Zverev after their semi-final clash under the roof. These conditions might allow Ruud to stay in rallies longer and force more mistakes from his opponent.
Nadal’s forehand remains one of the most lethal weapons in men’s tennis and it could be the thing that determines the outcome of this match. If Nadal can find his range, and the conditions are favourable, Sunday’s final could be a foregone conclusion. If, however, he allows as many errors to creep into his game as he did against Zverev, this could be Ruud’s day.
