Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner will be the youngest match at the round of 16 stage at Wimbledon since 1973 and the winner will be rewarded with a quarter-final tie against Novak Djokovic or Tim Van Rijthoven.

Alcaraz has settled into this tournament following that long first-round match against Jan-Lennard Struff, swatting aside Tallon Griekspoor and Oscar Otte in straight sets. Neither of those two are particularly strong on grass though and I think the market has overpriced the young Spaniard in this match at a best price 1/3.

On the tour this year, Sinner has a 77% win percentage and Alcaraz even higher at 89.7%. While neither of these two have a huge amount of grass court experience, both have the weapons to hurt each other from either wing while their lateral movement is up there with the best in the game.

While I do think Sinner is underpriced and wouldn’t deter anyone from backing him to win, I expect this match to go long so the over 36.5 line is a bet I’m very happy to take at 20/23 with BetVictor (most other bookies have the line at 37.5).

Over 36.5 Games - 1pt @ 20/23

Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Rafael Nadal

This match is a huge step up in class for Botic Van De Zandschulp, having beaten an aging Feliciano Lopez, Emil Ruusuvuori and 36 year-old Richard Gasquet in the first three rounds at Wimbledon.

Rafa Nadal dropped a set in both of the first two rounds but looks to be finding his feet on grass gain after blowing Lorenzo Sonego away on Centre Court yesterday.

I didn’t see Nadal going deep in the build up to SW19 but now that the Spaniard has got this far in the tournament and with the way the draw has opened up he’ll be wanting to conserve his energy for tougher tests to come and a possible final meeting with Novak Djokovic.

I can’t see Van De Zandschulp causing him huge problems and while he might keep each set tight I’m happy to take the under 34.5 line at 7/8. 

Over 34.5 Games - 1pt @ 7/8

Brandon Nakashima vs Nick Kyrgios

Any match involving Nick Kyrgios is unlikely to pass without much drama, as shown in his third-round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. That is especially true after the mental energy he spent both battling his opponent and the Wimbledon officials.

Brandon Nakashima is playing great tennis at the moment and beat last year’s semi-finalist, Denis Shapovalov in the third-round.

He is a very solid player on grass with a good serve and onsistent groundstrokes, with the ability to hit winners especially from his backhand. He’s also the complete opposite of Kyrgios’ personality and I can’t see him getting involved in or effected by anything the Australian does unlike Tsitsipas was.

The American’s consistency and the mental effect of Kyrgios’ last match makes me think Kyrgios won’t have it all his own way. Over 37.5 games at 10/11 is therefore where I’d look to find value here.

Over 37.5 Games - 1pt @ 10/11