Luca Brecel vs Mark Williams

It was sixth time lucky for the Belgian Bullet, Luca Brecel as he finally got that elusive ‘W’ at the Crucible on Sunday evening, defeating Ricky Walden in a decider. 

Luca led 6-3 after the mid-session interval then 9-6 with the win in touching distance. Walden, who beat Brecel in this very round in 2018 10-6, fought back and forced a final frame. Brecel had previously lost in two deciders at the Crucible in 2017 and 2019 but wasn’t to be denied with a consummate break of 84. 

Now he faces the three-time world champion, Mark Williams in his first ever best-of-25, over potentially three sessions. Williams overcame a 5-4 deficit to beat Jimmy Robertson 10-5 to make the second round for the 21st time. 

The evergreen Williams played solidly in the second session and his big game experience in this format ought to hold him in great stead here. He’s won 11 of his 20 second rounds, including five of his last six. 

Williams is rightfully the favourite in this match, however I felt 8/15 was a touch short. He does hold the big edge in the head-to-heads over Brecel winning all five previous meetings, all in ranking events. Bar their opening meeting in Berlin 2015 which went to a decider, Williams won the next three convincingly 4-1, 4-1 and 5-1 and concluded with a win at the one-frame shoot-out in 2020. 

Brecel either swims or drowns in this match and consistency is the huge word that concerns me over the Belgian. He can play like a dream in stages then play so mediocre the next. Brecel has ability in spades and can cause any player problems though Williams’ steadiness is incredibly underrated - it could be the key to victory. 

In 17 previous best-of-25 victories at the Crucible, Williams has never required a deciding frame. The closest he’s been was last year in beating Yan Bingtao 13-11 and three years ago by the same scoreline over Stuart Bingham.

I expect Williams to win without requiring a decider again and -1.5 frame handicap is the safe play at 4/5 with Betfred. For a scoreline, I would go for 13-10 at 9/1. It’s a scoreline he’s never won by in this best-of-25 format, so maybe this is the day it does. 

Advised Bets:

  • Mark Williams -1.5 frame handicap @ 4/5 Betfred
  • Williams to win 13-10 @ 9/1 Betfred

Mark Allen vs Stuart Bingham

One of the players of the season Mark Allen takes on 2015 world champion Stuart Bingham in a very intriguing matchup.

Allen and Bingham have had needle in the past (post Bingham winning his world title) where Allen questioned Bingham’s bottle under pressure. Bingham answered back with his greatest triumph in 2015. A lot has gone under the carpet since and it’s safe to say both have gone from strength to strength in their careers. 

Allen and Bingham are both one triple crown away from the full set. After the Masters win in 2018, Allen won his first UK Championship in November last year and requires this event for the three. Bingham added the Masters nearly five years on from his World title and is after a UK title. 

Allen lost weight over the pre-season and he got his just rewards with three ranking titles, his best season in his career. This, however, is the event he will want to shine in more than any other and was unspectacular in the opening 10-5 win over Fan Zhengyi. His best moment of the match was a 126, which was held up early in the break after the protestors showed up on both tables unannounced. 

Allen’s record at the Worlds is a shoddy one. He’s only gone past this round once since 2012 and comes up against someone who’s bypassed this round four times in that time. Bingham seems to bring his A game to Sheffield and looked firmly back at ‘home’ in pummelling former semi-finalist here David Gilbert 10-4 with seven breaks over 50. 

On season form, there should only be one winner here and it’s Allen. Bingham has been average at best with only one quarter-final (recently at the WST Classic) to show. But as we know, the leveller in this contest is this venue, the conditions and the format. Bingham, we know he utterly relishes it. Allen on the other hand is a bit uneasy as his past results imply. 

I would therefore be very cautious in taking any of the 8/15 on the Antrim man. Allen has won both the previous triple crown encounters in 2010 and 2018 at the U.K. The only best-of-19 or longer match was won by ‘Ball-Run’ in Shanghai 10-3 in 2014. Could that latter result be important even nine years on?

In the mental toughness stakes, Allen is out on his own in this contest and might need to hang tough. You can never accuse Allen of lacking fight and endeavour.

All three of Allen’s last defeats in best-of-25 have been 13-6, 13-7 and 13-4 to Crucible and format specialists in Kyren Wilson, Mark Selby and Ronnie O’Sullivan. A worry. Allen is a different animal this year granted however Bingham is also one of those all-important specialists. 

Providing Allen can stick to his guns and play positively, he can take this close though gun to the head, I fancy Bingham to pip Allen.

I would look to over 22.5 frames (6/5 BetVictor) so at worst a 13-10 scoreline required. Plus Bingham for the win at 6/4 (Bet365).

Advised Bets:

  • Stuart Bingham to beat Mark Allen @ 6/4 Bet365
  • Over 22.5 frames @ 6/5 BetVictor