World Snooker Championship

After 19 previous champions of the World Snooker Championship have tried and failed, Kyren Wilson is the next in the firing line to break the undefeated Crucible curse (I can just envisage Lord Alan Sugar in the Apprentice delivering the task to Wilson in the boardroom!)

Getting straight to the point, this is the best chance of it breaking in years, because not only has Wilson had a fabulous season winning four ranking titles, but he has the pedigree and most importantly the inner belief it can be done. I remember reading an article quite soon after last year’s triumph where he was envisioning winning the Worlds back-to-back during his semi-final win over Stuart Bingham. Kind of mad but a fascinating  way of thinking.

Wilson certainly has the mental strength and is tried and tested over the 17 day marathon, given he was runner-up in the Covid hit 2020 edition too.

You have to go back to the era of The Beatles in their height for the last time a player won back-to-back Worlds after their first success - in 1964 via John Pulman (his came after no tournament was played between 1958-1963). 

But it’s so different at the Crucible. My all-time top five players in history, Ronnie O’Sullivan, John Higgins, Stephen Hendry, Mark Selby and Mark Williams all failed to break the curse and you can throw in Steve Davis, Judd Trump and Neil Robertson too. It’s an almighty task. 

Ken Doherty (1998) and Joe Johnson (1987) are the closest to do the deed losing in the final a year after their first win and I predict Wilson will also fall short. Furthermore, Wilson has played 81 matches this season and 590 frames - an obscene amount. He played 572 frames in the whole of last season and it will be nigh on 700 this if he retains. To put into context, Brecel played just 380 frames in 2023.

Onto other contenders, it’s hard to knock a player who’s made the final on three occasions and won it in 2019, but I’m happy to take favourite Trump firmly on. He’s prepared better this season, pulling out a few more events so is fresher than most however he’s only gone past the quarters once since his title winning year. That concerns me. I also worry a little about his cue action too which can go haywire if he’s off it especially under pressure. Too many nagging doubts and very short at 4/1.

The biggest will he or won’t he saga since, well, a few weeks ago when Mo Salah signed a new contract with Liverpool, Ronnie O’Sullivan announced on Thursday he will rock up for snooker immortality and an eighth world crown. I couldn’t see anything but him playing as soon as he was drawn against arch enemy, Ali Carter in round one. As if he would gift Carter a bye to round two! 

He won’t be match sharp after most of the season out, but he did win this title in 2013 after virtually a season off. That was 12 years ago. He is close to 50 now and isn’t the player of old even if he’s still capable of genuine genius. Fascinating contender of course but cannot be on my radar. 

Neil Robertson has looked back to near his best in patches this season but it’s the venue that puts me off the Aussie. Cannot get it out my head. He’s gone past the quarters just once in 13 appearances since his win in 2010. Shocking. If he makes the semis then it’s a different story. It’s getting there that’s the issue. He’s like a fast ground horse running on heavy ground at this place! 

Plenty of respect for Mark Allen. I think he’ll get there one day. Much like his fellow countryman Rory McIlroy did at the Masters last Sunday. He’s turned his career around the last few years losing that weight and will get his just rewards in next five years. Just not here and now. Only two semis in 18 years is alarming. 

Lastly, returning pro next season and qualifier this, Zhao Xintong. I watched the former UK champion in final qualifying against Elliot Slessor in what was the match of the tournament so far. The standard was ridiculous from both (three centuries apiece) with Zhao prevailing 10-7.

As insanely good as he is, I feel to go to the next level he needs someone like Ronnie to put an arm around him and sort his safety game out (like Ray Reardon did for him). It’s mediocre at best and he’ll be found out by a proper match player.

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Snooker Betting Tips

This all leads me perfectly into my first outright pick and Mark Selby

Certainly since Stephen Hendry dominated the 1990s, there hasn’t been a more Crucible type than the Jester from Leicester. The four-time champion is a master of the long formats, session snooker and the longer the event goes, the harder this guy is to beat. 

2023 was Selby’s 6th world final and only his second defeat (to Luca Brecel). It goes to show if Selby can navigate his way to the one-table set up semis, he’ll be in his absolute element. Nobody will want a piece of him if he gets there. He holds a Played 14, Won 10, Lost 4 record when the Crucible comes into its own. You also have to go back to 2011 for the last time Selby lost a quarter-final here.

Selby’s season has been his most consistent in years, winning two rankers, a Championship league then a final defeat at the Tour Championship in the last before heading here. Since 2019, no player has made the final of the Tour Championship and gone on to clinch the Worlds after so that is against him and the winner, Higgins. I’m more than prepared to put a line through that stat. 

Selby’s mental health which has troubled him so much in the last few seasons is looking rosier. He seemingly has a clear head coming in which screams danger to the field and though he opens with good friend and fellow Leicester compatriot Ben Woollaston, he couldn’t have asked for a better starter course in all honesty (as good a player Woollaston is).

This Championship has always been so hard to win. Mental and physical torture for 17 days and there is no one more equipped than Selby. He loves every part of it. It’s like a drug to him. 

He ticks every single box. He scores as good as anyone. He is a world class tactician. Will never say die. Granite under pressure. Every ingredient in the mixing bowl he’s top of the class, A+. Selby looks primed to overtake Higgins and make it five Worlds on May Bank Holiday Monday.

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One player who’s becoming a Crucible specialist is 16th and first time seed, Jak Jones. I’ve had the Cwmbran ace on my radar all season for this. With Jones, you can virtually forget what he’s done in all the other formats throughout the season. He’s done sweet nothing of note. But I really don’t care, he just comes alive here and in this format. 

He’s only played at the Crucible twice, both times as a qualifier and got an instant love for the place. In 2023, the tenacious little Welshman beat Carter and Robertson before losing narrowly to Allen in the quarters. Then last year, his hitlist was: Zhang Anda, Si Jiahui, Trump, and Bingham to make a highly unexpected final. Wilson had to fight tooth and nail to finally shrug Jones off 18-14, as he just would not go away. 

In the second round here, Jones potentially has a chance to get revenge on Wilson in best-of-25 but his first attention is a battle royal with chief danger man Zhao, the qualifier none of the seeds wanted. 

As I mentioned above, watching Zhao (in awe of his breathtaking ability) I saw chinks in his armoury. Yes, he can score for toffee but his safety and tactical game gives Jones plenty of hope here. Jones can compete in the scoring stakes with Zhao (Jones made 55 centuries this season, 32 in the Championship league) and he’s right at the top table in the safety department - it’s probably his strongest attribute.

He will need to glue this attacker firmly on that top cushion, box clever and punish his mistakes. He will get chances for certain much like Slessor did. The bookies have given Jones the respect he rightfully deserves. 

Zhao has four wins of best-of-19 under his belt, however at the Crucible, this can be different. Jones has won six matches here ranging from best-of-19 to best-of-33. Zhao played there twice and won once. I have faith in Jones doing a number on him, much like Shaun Murphy did against him at York in November. 

Back to Jones though, this lad is hard as nails - he’s just the type you want on your side in the trenches. A menacing battler. He doesn’t care who he faces - look at the folk he’s beaten at this venue. That’s the confidence he has to thrive on. He has great memories here and perhaps a tough draw is what he needs. The other positive is he’s incredibly fresh coming in and is one of the fittest guys on tour so will not tire.

Underestimate this lad at your peril and at 80/1 (when Zhao is 16/1) is a sound each-way investment. 

Lastly, a small dip into the quarter market. It’s in Selby’s section so not ideal however I can’t resist a nibble at David Gilbert at 16/1 to win Quarter 2.

He came through qualifying valiantly on Tuesday in a ding-dong 10-9 with Ireland’s most promising prospect, Aaron Hill. He will be relieved to make it back to a place he loves playing in. The Angry Farmer was a semi-finalist last year and in 2019 so knows how to manoeuvre his way to the one-table set up. 

He opens with Si Jiahui who has dropped like a stone in form dramatically since making the Wuhan Open final in October. Since then, he’s played 15 times, winning just four matches and it’s just one win this year (a 5-0 win over Ken Doherty barely counts these days!)

So this looks a nice opener for Tamworth’s finest. Gilbert is big buddies with Selby, practises with him regularly at his club in Swadlincote so they know their games inside and out but Gilbert has won four from six in past best-of-25’s here. In 16 past matches against one another, eight have gone to a decider including all the last four. Selby would have preferred avoiding him I’m sure of it and it looks a nice spot for Gilbert.

16/1 looks value.

World Snooker Championship Tips