Sam Eaton analyses the key data to spotlight six standout selections ahead of tonight’s Eurovision Grand Final.
Eurovision Grand Final
The semi-final threw up a few real shocks, with the stand-out upsets being both Belgium and Australia not qualifying to the final.
It’s now time for the final, and we have all the data we need at our disposal to make a educated bets. Below there’s a list of selections I posted earlier in the week.
Eurovision Predictions: Tips Pre Semi-Finals
- Sweden Win – 3pts – Advised at 6/5 (now 1/1)
- Albania Win – 0.5pts each-way – Advised at 66/1 (now 50/1)
- Albania Top 10 – 2pts Advised at 4/5 (now 1/2)
- Malta Top 10 – 1pt Advised at 5/4 (now 2/1)
- Estonia Top 10 – 3pts Advised at 8/15 (now 2/5)
- France Jury Vote Win – 0.5pts 3/1 (now 5/2)
- Estonia Televote Win – 0.5pts 10/1 (now 15/2)
From the list above, I’m sticking with Sweden winning Eurovision, Albania and Estonia both finishing in the top 10. I also believe France to win the Jury vote is a solid bet.
Unfortunately, I’m less confident Albania will finish in the top four (each-way part of the win bet), and Estonia have been dealt a poor draw to win the televote.
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Eurovision Final Running Order & Analysis
Below you’ll find the 2025 Eurovision running order, and the average overall finishing position, Jury vote finishing position and Televote finishing position since 2016.
| Running Order Position | Country | Avg Overall Finishing Position |
Avg Jury Finishing Position |
Avg Televote Finishing Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Luxembourg | 22 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Estonia | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Israel | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | Spain | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Ukraine | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 8 | United Kingdom | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 9 | Austria | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Iceland | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Latvia | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Netherlands | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Finland | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 14 | Italy | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Poland | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 16 | Germany | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 17 | Greece | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 18 | Armenia | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 19 | Switzerland | 14 | 17 | 11 |
| 20 | Malta | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| 21 | Portugal | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 22 | Denmark | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 23 | Sweden | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| 24 | France | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| 25 | San Marino | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 26 | Albania | 13 | 17 | 14 |
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2025 Eurovision Final Tips & Predictions
Now we know the 26 countries competing in the final there’s a few more betting options to add to the card.
For those who follow my Eurovision selections, will know I bang-on about a direct correlation between how well countries perform on the Eurovisionworld poll, and how they perform on the night. There’s also a correlation between how popular a country is in the betting, and how they finish-up.
Eurovision online prediction polls can exceed 300k votes, and these are the people who are most likely to contribute to the Televote. Since 2015, the Eurovision winner has finished in the top two of the biggest Eurovision poll (Eurovisionworld), topping the poll 7/9 times.
Also since, 2015, the Eurovision winner has been the most bet on country on oddschecker 6/9 times.
| Year | Most Bet-On Country (via Oddschecker) |
Eurovision Poll Winner |
Eurovision Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Sweden | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2016 | Russia | Russia (Ukraine 2nd) | Ukraine |
| 2017 | Portugal | Portugal | Portugal |
| 2018 | Israel | Israel | Israel |
| 2019 | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands |
| 2021 | Switzerland | Italy | Italy |
| 2022 | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine |
| 2023 | Sweden | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2024 | Netherlands (Switzerland 3rd) | Croatia (Switzerland 2nd) | Switzerland |
The first betting market to look at is the to finish last position market, as you’ll see from the graphic (below) I tweeted from my account, there are a few leading contenders.
There are three countries I’m going to back in the to finish last market based on the data:
Advised Bet: United Kingdom to finish last 5/2 – 1pt
Advised Bet: Luxembourg to finish last 50/1 – 1pt
Advised Bet: Armenia to finish last 18/1 – 1pt
Only a small profit if the UK finish last, but is more of a cover for the other two options.
I’m going to add Netherlands to my outright selections, as I’m surprised their odds have drifted back-out following the second semi-final. They were as short as 8/1, and can now be backed at 20/1 with four each-way places.
Advised Bet: Netherlands to win 25/1 – 1pt each-way (four places)
I’m also going to double down on Malta finishing in the top 10. They’ve got the right draw, and the rest of the data is pointing in the right direction.
Another bet I want to add to my card is a match bet, which you can find on the likes of bet365 and William Hill. William Hill have Portugal at even money to finish ahead of Armenia, which I’m willing to take.
