Five bets for the first semi-final as the countries battle for a place in Tel Aviv.
This is easily the weaker semi-final, and because of that there’s a little bit of value in the market. I’ve tipped Cyprus to win the whole event (along with a few other countries), and I’m picking them for glory in the opening semi-final. As mentioned in my earlier preview, the nation’s song has been written by Eurovision heavyweight Alexander Papaconstantinou, who has co-written four Eurovision entries to date, which have finished 7th, 3rd, 16th and 2nd.
Tamta represents last year’s runners-up and we got our first real glimpse of her performing the song last Saturday in the first rehearsals. The way she owned the stage was very noticeable at the weekend, and should set her up for a good score.
Cyprus should benefit from a vote exchange with Greece in their semi-final. They’ve also historically scored well from Finland.
The only downside to Cyprus is the draw, they’re first on, which will make it pretty tricky for Tamta to win the semi. This is the reason why I’ve been a little cautious with the points allocated to the act.
The main reason for backing the Czechs is due to the competition in the group, and especially the countries which have drawn the prime numbers. Historically you want to be in a slot near the backend of the night. These prime slots are taken up by Australia, Iceland, Estonia and Portugal who all disappoint.
Despite the odds, I think Czech Republic will go down well with the public vote and could spring a surprise on the night.
Slovenia at 3/1 not to qualify looks the bet of the semi-final! Their rehearsal was boring to say the least, their song is pretty bland, and finally they’ve been hit pretty hard by the draw.
Slovenia have a pretty awful recent record when it comes to qualification, only managing to get to the final on five occasions since 2004. They’ll miss Bosnia not being in the competition, and very much miss Croatia not being their side of the draw.
Speaking of the draw, they’re fifth up, which is a pretty stinking position to be in.
Added to all the negativity above, they’ve had very little support on the online polls.
The Polish could be struggling with their semi-final draw for two reasons. They’re lacking a lot of their voting allies, which includes both Germany and United Kingdom. They’ll be the fourth act on-site which historically is a very poor position to be performing.
They’ve also polled pretty poorly with online votes, which is normally a solid indicator of success. I was also pretty pessimistic on Poland’s chance when originally listening to the song, and their rehearsal has done nothing to convince me.
Hungary’s rehearsal was very disappointing, and lacked any sort of stage presence which can be so important. Added to this the online commentary has been pretty negative on the performance which has also been true with the majority of online blogs.
They’re in the first-half of the draw which won’t help. Their only saving grace is the number of voting allies in their group.
