Sam looks to continue his strong Eurovision record with predictions for this year's contest in Rotterdam.
The market is currently topped by Romania and Lithuania with Iceland being the only other country under 10/1. Italy were the long-time favourites but have been relegated to fourth-favouritism at 14/1.
Who could win in Rotterdam?
If this article was written last week we would have got a much bigger price on Romania winning Eurovision, as their final song was yet to be released. Roxen had already been confirmed to represent the country, but the song was still undecided, at this point a few punters, including myself took a bit of value in the market. Annoyingly, the song chosen for Romania wasn’t the best outcome, but even so “Alcohol You” has a cracking chance of winning the competition.
The Romanians have a pretty dismal record in Eurovision, with only four top ten finishes since 1993, and they’ve failed to qualify in the last two attempts. That said, the only year they’ve been involved in the new tele vote, they were fifth in the public vote.
Unfortunately for Romania there’s not much of a pattern to the votes they receive, for example Sweden receive a large percentage of the Scandinavian vote. That said, they should benefit from Roxen’s awareness in Bulgaria, Spain and Russia in France.
As mentioned, Romania are joint-favourite with Lithuania. It’s easy to see why Lithuania’s song is at the top of the market, but at this price I’d rather be a Romania backer. Lithuania’s act relies too heavily on the final running order. If they get one of the last spots, they’ll go off even shorter than now.
Given that only one song not in English has won since 2008, I’m normally very much against backing songs in a country’s native language. However, this Italian song could replicate 2017’s winner, Portugal.
Italy have had no problem with songs in Italian, each of their last four entries have been in Italian, and they’ve finished second, fifth, sixth and 16th. This song is a lock when the top 10 betting comes out, but there’s also every chance it’s the winner, and I’m a little surprised 12/1 is available. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if that price continues to drift with countries like Sweden and Finland yet to announce their act.
I’d be wary using early Eurovision polls as an indicator, as at a similar stage in 2019 the polls had France as the clear winner, but they went on to finish 16th. That said, Italy have been among the top five in the majority of polls to date.
Italy also have a cracking record in the tele-vote, since 2016 they’ve registered the most tele-votes by some distance. Their act Diodato has some brand presence in Switzerland which will be an added bonus. The song has already had over 16million YouTube views.
Historically, Italy dominate the vote with countries from Western Europe, and there’s nothing to suggest this will change in 2020.
Greece shouldn’t be 50/1, their song has everything it needs to be a serious contender at Eurovision. YouTuber Stefania will represent the country, she represented Netherlands in Junior Eurovision, and also appeared on Dutch TV.
I know I previously said don’t read too much into the early online polls, however, Greece are performing very well in the majority online. The song has been written by Dimitris Kontopoulos. He has written two runner-up songs, and two third place finishes since 2007.
Greece have performed pretty ordinarily in recent Eurovisions, a far cry from their dominance in the early 2000s. Greece have failed to qualify twice in the last four years, but both of those songs contained Greek.
Greece will receive the majority of their votes from the Balkan areas, but will likely pick up a few from the countries in peripheral areas such as Australia, Israel etc.