Eurovision Semi Final One

2021 Eurovision Semi Final Betting Preview

The first Eurovision Semi-final is only days away with sixteen countries participating on 18th May for a place in the Eurovision final. For those less clued up about Eurovision, only ten countries qualify from each semi-final, they join the “Big Six” to make up 26 countries in the final.

The voting in the Eurovision semi-finals is split 50/50, 50% of the vote is from the public and 50% is from the juries.

Viewers in all countries taking part in the first semi-final are invited to vote via the Eurovision app on the result of the first semi-final.

Professional juries in all countries taking part in the first Eurovision semi-final are required to vote in that semi-final.

The running order for Eurovision makes a huge difference in terms of results, see below the running order for the first Eurovision Semi-Final.

2021 Eurovision Semi-Final One Running Order

  • Lithuania: The Roop – “Discoteque”
  • Slovenia: Ana Soklič – “Amen”
  • Russia: Manizha – “Russian Woman”
  • Sweden: Tusse – “Voices”
  • Australia: Montaigne – “Technicolour”
  • North Macedonia: Vasil – “Here I Stand”
  • Ireland: Lesley Roy – “Maps”
  • Cyprus: Elena Tsagrinou – “El diablo”
  • Norway: Tix – “Fallen Angel”
  • Croatia: Albina – “Tick-Tock”
  • Belgium: Hooverphonic – “The Wrong Place”
  • Israel: Eden Alene – “Set Me Free”
  • Romania: Roxen – “Amnesia”
  • Azerbaijan: Efendi – “Mata Hari”
  • Ukraine: Go_A – “SHUM”
  • Malta: Destiny – “Je me casse”

2021 Eurovision Semi-Final One Odds

Malta are the strong favorites in the Eurovision Semi Final 1 odds market, and have been massively help by their favorable draw. Malta are currently 4/7 to win the first Eurovision Semi-final.

Cyprus are the second-favorites to win the opening Eurovision semi-final, their odds are currently around the 6/1 mark.

Lithuania have the unfavorable task of opening up proceedings, they are fourth favorites in the Eurovision odds market, with Sky Bet offering odds of 8/1.

Lithuania are unlikely to win from this position as their act relies heavily on a good draw, however, this will mean their odds in the main Eurovision odds market will drift following the first semi-final, something I will be looking to take advantage of.

2021 Eurovision Semi-Final One Odds

   
Country   
   
Odds   
   
Malta   
   
8/15   
   
Cyprus   
   
6/1   
   
Ukraine   
   
15/2   
   
Lithuania   
   
42/5   
   
Russia   
   
21/1   
   
Sweden   
   
33/1   
   
Romania   
   
33/1   
   
Belgium   
   
33/1   
   
Norway   
   
50/1   
   
Israel   
   
66/1   
   
Croatia   
   
66/1   
   
Azerbaijan   
   
80/1   
   
Ireland   
   
100/1   
   
Australia   
   
125/1   
   
Macedonia   
   
150/1   
   
Slovenia   
   
150/1   

2021 Eurovision Semi Final Picks & Predictions

Ukraine To Win Eurovision Semi-Final One – 8/1 – 1pt each-way

I have no interest in backing Malta at 4/7 to win the opening Eurovision Semi-Final, yes they might win it, but that price is far too small.

Ukraine need a good draw, and they’ve got it, it’s a memorable song and the party will be in full swing by they come to the stage.

Take the risk and wager them to win the opening semi-final at 8/1. They should score votes from Lithuania, Sweden, Norway, Croatia and Slovenia.

Ukraine To Win - 1pt e/w @ 8/1

Cyprus To Win Eurovision Semi-Final One 

Again with taking that small price on for Malta, I’m keen to take on the favorite with Cyprus as well, especially with Bet365 offering each-way placings.

Cyprus’ entry has grown on me, and has also polled well in recent Eurovision polls, below Malta still but not far enough below to warrant the difference in odds.

Cyprus To Win - 1pt e/w @ 6/1

Croatia To Win Eurovision Semi-Final One 

Croatia’s song could sneak under the radar at Eurovision, the song is catchy and will get the votes going on the night.

It’s polled surprisingly well on a few online polls I follow, and nothing suggests it should be in the 66/1 range in the opening semi-final.

Croatia To Win - 1pt e/w @ 66/1

Russia Not To Qualify From Eurovision Semi-Final One 

Paddy Power are offering a not to qualify Eurovision market, and I’m fully onboard with backing Russia in this market.

There will obviously be a few political votes thrown Russia’s way, but this is a very poor entry, and will be easily forgotten about being so early on in the draw.

I expected these odds to be much closer to even money, so more than happy to take the 9/2. The online polls back up this Eurovision tip.

Russia Not To Qualify - 1pt @ 9/2

Belgium Not To Qualify From Eurovision Semi-Final One 

Belgium is another very poor entry, and for a country who has a history of failing to qualify, I wouldn’t be surprised if that 8/13 becomes value on the night. There really is not much going for this entry.

Belgium Not To Qualify - 1pt @ 8/13

Australia To Qualify From Eurovision Semi-Final One

Australia have a fine record since joining Eurovision, and despite their song having zero chance of winning the Eurovision final, it’s not as bad as the odds suggest.

The on-stage performance will be key for Australia. 13/8 for them to qualify for the final looks good value to me.

Ten countries to qualify:

  • Malta
  • Cyprus
  • Ukraine
  • Lithuania
  • Sweden
  • Australia
  • Croatia
  • Norway
  • Israel
  • Romania

Tell us who you think will qualify for the final on Twitter at @oddschecker & @sameaton12

Australia To Qualify - 1pt @ 13/8