Eurovision expert Sam Eaton brings you a detailed preview of the 2021 offering, alongside a number of juicy betting tips - including a 55/1 shot.
Eurovision Song Contest Predictions
It seems like decades ago since Eurovision was in our lives, however, it’s back with the final taking place in Rotterdam on the 22 May 2021.
The rehearsals for the first semi-finals are currently taking place which will give us a few indications of what will happen in the final. A couple of years ago we landed a 100/1 2nd place in Cyprus, and also made some shrewd money in the semi-final markets.
Looking ahead to this Eurovision, there will be some semi-final tips later in the week, but wanted to concentrate on the main Eurovision odds market this week.
The Eurovision odds market has started to cramp up, but unlike other years, there’s no real outright favorite at this point.
There are a couple at the top of the market which interest me when it comes to 2021 Eurovision tips, and also at much bigger prices.
2021 Eurovision Tips: Don’t get put off by France’s odds
France are top of the 2021 Eurovision odds market, with Smarkets currently offering odds of 39/10. A few lucky bettors claimed double figure prices a couple of weeks ago, however, that’s not the case now, but still I wouldn’t put you off backing France.
France’s recent Eurovision record is pretty poor, although that will change this year thanks to Barbara Pravi.
“Voila” has similar vibes to the Portuguese winner not too long ago, and will be the first French language winner in sometime. The song has polled well on popular Eurovision sites, which are normally good indicators for success. The song has also been a hit on popular streaming sites such as YouTube.
Even though the song is in French, it’s one of the stand-out entries in this year’s competition, and follows a tried and tested model.
Barbara Pravi’s first rehearsal comes on Thursday, so it might be worth getting our bets on now.
Betting suggests Switzerland are the ones to beat
I’ll be the first to admit I don’t necessary like Switzerland’s Eurovision entry, but it’s still made my Eurovision predictions column.
There’s a reason for this: Eurovision is largely decided by the public, and unlike some events, there is data that can support a reasoning to bet on an outcome. Obviously the Eurovision polls are an indicator on how the public will vote, but so are the global betting markets.
In four out of the last five years, the winner of Eurovision has been the most wagered country in the betting market during March. This year, Switzerland was the most wagered country in the betting market in March on Oddschecker.
Some people might not like this reasoning for a Eurovision tip at 6/1, however, being someone fully invested in stats, I’m not turning that down.
Based on previous betting patterns Switzerland at 29/5 are the bet for #Eurovision @wiwibloggs | @oddschecker— Sam Eaton (@sameaton12) March 22, 2021
(Russia came 3rd in 2016) pic.twitter.com/ji5QBebW5Z
Ukraine offer something different
Ukraine have been a long-term play for me in the Eurovision odds market. Go_A Shum offer something completely different which could be a smash hit at Eurovision.
The draw will have a big impact on Ukraine’s chances, if they go too early, they will have no chance, however with a preferable draw, they are certainly memorable enough to make the difference.
Ukraine have a solid Eurovision record, and even though this entry won’t get too many votes from Western Europe, expect it to poll well in the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region.
Flo Rida key for San Marino
Flo Rida is making a Eurovision reappearance this year alongside San Marino, and he’s boosted their chances ten-fold.
To be honest though, there’s no chance San Marino win unless Flo Rida actually turns up on the night, and at these odds I’m willing to take that risk.
There was a rapper standing in for Flo Rida in rehearsals, which makes me believe that Flo will be there come the main event. The internet suggests that Flo Rida is judging a bikini contest in Miami next week, but it does end on the 16th so he could be there in time.
A good draw and Flo Rida on stage makes this song a success; take the 55/1 on offer, and I wouldn’t even both with the each-way market. Risk it.
Can't ignore Lithuania at 35/1
Lithuania was a country I was happy to avoid at much lower Eurovision odds a few weeks back, but with 35/1 on offer, I’m not going to ignore.
They were favorites going into last year’s Eurovision, and to be honest, I don’t think too much has changed. The song and style are very similar. Yes, the competition is a little harder, but not enough to push them so far down the rankings.
The stage performance will be one of the best of the night, they have somewhat signature dance moves, and the song is catchy.