Eurovision 2023

2023 Eurovision Predictions 

This may come as a surprise to non-Eurovision fanatics, but betting on Eurovision is a very big thing. Each year, the European song contest is one of the most bet on events on the calendar. 

Betting on Eurovision months out is more about using your nous to find a song or act which may resonate with the Eurovision fans. However, when you get to this point in the year, betting on Eurovision is all about using the data available. 

My Eurovision predictions use a mixture of ready available data from popular Eurovision polls, and also the latest Eurovision betting data from oddschecker. 

Here are some of the key trends I’ve picked out to help form your Eurovision predictions:

Eurovision Trend: The most voted on act in the Eurovision World blog has won Eurovision six of the last seven years. With 2016 being the only anomaly where Ukraine were second in the vote, but won Eurovision. 

Eurovision prediction based on this trend: Sweden to win Eurovision (top of the Eurovision World poll with 18% of votes). 

Eurovision Trend: Nine out of 10 countries 2015 to get over 10% of votes in the Eurovision World poll have come in the top three positions in the Eurovision Final. Italy in 2017 being the only exception, they came 6th. 

Eurovision predictions based on this trend: Sweden and Finland to finish in the top three at the Eurovision Final. 

Eurovision Trend: Four of the last seven winners of Eurovision have been the most bet on selection. 

Eurovision prediction based on this trend: Sweden to win Eurovision. 

Eurovision Trend: The winner of Eurovision has been in the top two of the betting in the first eight days of May that year. 

Eurovision prediction based on this trend: Sweden or Finland to win Eurovision. 

2023 Eurovision Tips 

Based on the Eurovision predictions above, one easy Eurovision tip to make is Sweden to win Eurovision 2023. However, the price has gone in the Eurovision odds market, and so making a tip at 11/20 is not much fun. That being said, Sweden are the very likely winners of Eurovision so I wouldn’t put anyone off betting them. 

The same can be said for Finland; they are currently 7/2 with the bookmakers to win Eurovision. One shrewd bet would be to bet on Finland at 7/2 each-way with Paddy Power offering three places. 

If you placed £10 on Finland each-way, you would win £62 if they won, and £17 (£3 loss) if they came second or third. It’s pretty nailed on for Finland to come in the top three, so this is a pretty low risk bet if you want someone to take on Sweden. 

Only issue with betting on Finland is they are first in the Eurovision draw. A country hasn’t won Eurovision from a draw in the first nine positions since 2003. Sweden are also in the first half of the draw…

Eurovision Tip: Israel 25/1 each-way to win Eurovision 

Anyone who follows me on Twitter (@sameaton12) will know I’ve been a big pusher of Israel’s Eurovision entry in the last couple of months (originally tipped at 33/1 each-way (4 places)).

Until a couple of days ago, Israel had over 10% of the votes in the Eurovision poll, that has dropped to 8% but they still remain in third place in the voting. 

Israel have been drawn in the second-half of the Eurovision Final, which gives them the advantage over Sweden and Finland. 

They are also third in the most bet on countries at Eurovision, which is another guideline to follow. 

Their semi-final performance was a hit on social media following the performance. 

Sweden and Finland are quite rightly the top two in the betting, however, Israel have a great chance of being in the top three, and with the draw could sneak the top spot.  A £10 bet on Israel to win Eurovision would return £320, and if they came second or third you would get a return of £60 (£40 profit). 

If you are really buying into the Eurovision draw, Spreadex are offering 50/1 on Israel to win Eurovision but they have no each-way options available. 

Eurovision Tip: Germany Top 10 Finish 3/1 

Unfortunately the price of Germany to finish in the top 10 came down following the first Eurovision semi-final, they were originally 4/1. 

However, at 3/1 this still represents a decent Eurovision bet. Germany are 5th in the Eurovision poll with 5% of votes, and have been a popular option in the betting. 

Germany’s Eurovision song won’t appeal to everyone; however, with such a varied array of Eurovision fans, there’s always one heavy metal song which scores well. 

Eurovision Tip: Finland & Sweden Top 3 Finish, Israel Top 5 Finish & Germany Top 10 Finish - 9/1 

This bet can only be placed with Sky Bet, and was originally priced up at 10/1. As far as Eurovision RequestABets go, this is very appealing. 

Eurovision Tip: Israel 66/1 Televote Winner

This Eurovision tip is going against my opening comments about betting purely on data. 

However, with Finland and Sweden performing so early on in the night, I think there’s value in the tele vote winner market. 

Finland are odds-on in the tele-vote winner, however performing so early won’t put them in a good position. 

Sweden will win the Jury vote, but unsure if they will do so well in the tele vote. Ukraine are second favorites in this market, but I don’t think the public will account for external factors with voting this year. 

Israel have been popular in the Eurovision voting, which is why they are one tip. 

Eurovision Tip: Austria 100/1 each-way (2 places) Televote Winner

Austria have a very novel song, and if they can land a second-half draw have every chance of doing well in the televote. 

They shouldn’t be 100/1, and with Sky Bet offering each-way (2 places), this is a bet you shouldn’t miss out on. 

Austria have been given 4.3 stars out of 17k votes on Eurovision World, in comparison Finland have 4.0 starts from 29k votes, and Sweden 3.9 stars from 26k votes. 

It’s worth noting that Israel have 4.6 starts from 30k votes.