Eurovision Semi-Final 1

The first thing new Eurovision bettors should know is that bets on the winner of the semi-finals won’t be settled until after the Grand Final, as official results for the semis aren’t revealed until then.

Here’s a reminder of my outright selections for the week.

Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Odds

The win market for Semi-Final 1 is a little uninspiring — Sweden are heavy favourites (rightly so), and there are no each-way options. There’s no value for me in the outright market, but there are a few other interesting betting angles to consider.

I believe eight countries are virtually locked in to qualify from Semi-Final 1, meaning we’re essentially betting on the final two spots.

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Likely Qualifiers from Semi-Final 1

The eight countries I believe are guaranteed to qualify for the semi-final:

  • Sweden
  • Estonia
  • Ukraine
  • Netherlands
  • Albania
  • Cyprus
  • Norway
  • Belgium

 

Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Tips & Predictions

Slovenia have the second fewest votes in the EurovisionWorld poll and are fourth from the bottom in terms of betting volume via oddschecker. Slovenia are also third in the running order for the Semi-final which has a 44% qualification record. There’s very little buzz around their entry, and I’m happy to oppose them here.

Advised Bet: Slovenia NOT to Qualify – 4/6 (3pts)

Poland’s odds of 1/8 to qualify feel too short given their running order. They’re ranked 13th in both the EurovisionWorld poll and in bets placed via oddschecker.

Crucially, they’ve drawn the dreaded second performance slot, historically, only 41% of acts in this position qualify. 

On top of that, their song is stylistically similar to Spain’s, which performs just two places later. It’s a rough draw, and 9/2 on them missing the cut feels worth a punt.

Poland NOT to Qualify – 9/2 (1pt)

My final selection for semi-final 1 goes against my usual methods, as Croatia has shown little support in the polls or betting markets. 

However, they’ve landed 16th in the running order - a strong spot - and if any underdog can deliver a standout performance, it might be them. This is more of a value-based flyer than a form pick.

Croatia TO Qualify – 11/2 (0.5pt)