Eurovision Betting Tips 2026: Our Best Bets from 5/4 to 25/1

The Eurovision Data Play

I might have come a cropper last year when I was quoted in ESPN saying that Eurovision was the easiest betting event of the year, and then Sweden went on to lose. However, my theory was true: Austria, the eventual winner, finished second in the betting and second in the poll – therefore, the data can be trusted.

There have been some significant changes to Eurovision in 2026. Firstly, a lot of countries have pulled out of the competition due to Israel competing. Here’s a summary of the other key changes:

• Juries have returned to the Semi-Finals – meaning Semi-Finals will be 50/50 Jury/Televote.
• National Juries expanded from 5 to 7 people – with two having to be between 18-25.
• Maximum televotes reduced – public votes limited to 10 from 20.
• New technical safeguards on voting integrity, and stricter rules on political influence.

What could this impact? In short, this probably limits Israel’s chances. Last year, Israel somewhat ruined Sweden’s chances by dominating the televote.

Anyway, back to the data... Below you’ll see the results for the Eurovisionworld poll, and the most bet countries on Oddschecker (Jan - Week of Eurovision each year). As you can see, there’s a clear correlation:

• Oddschecker correctly predicted the winner in 6 out of the 10 contested years.
• The fan poll correctly placed the winner at #1 in 7 out of the 10 contested years.
• The winner of Eurovision has been in the top three of the Eurovision poll every year since 2015.
• The winner of Eurovision has been in the top three of the betting on Oddschecker in 8 out of the 10 contested years.

Eurovision Winners vs. Polls & Betting (2015–2025)

Looking at 2026 data:

• Eurovisionworld Poll
  • Finland 20% of votes
  • Denmark 11% of votes
  • Greece 6% of votes
• Oddschecker Betting
  • Finland
  • Greece
  • Israel

If you’re looking at the reliable data, then there are only really Finland and Greece who can win Eurovision, and somewhat boringly, the betting odds market reflects this.

Finland top the betting market at 5/4, and Greece come in second at 6/1.

Therefore, my first two tips for Eurovision are predictable:

• Finland to win @ 5/4 - 5pts
• Greece to win @ 6/1 each-way (4 places) - 1.25pts each-way

Israel's Eurovision Chances

Despite the rule changes, I feel like Israel are still worth a bet for a few different reasons:

1. The countries who would definitely not give Israel jury points have left the competition.
2. Televote can still be impacted by external affairs.

Historically, Israel has been strong in the televote. If they are strong in the televote again, they will likely increase Finland’s chances of winning, but would significantly impact Greece’s chances.

Greece are 33/1 to win the Jury vote (which they won’t do), but are 4/1 to win the televote. Backing Israel each-way puts a safeguard in place in case the televote is still significantly impacted by external affairs.

• Israel 22/1 - 0.5pts each-way (four places)

The current winner staking plan means if Finland wins, we’ll finish 2.75pts in profit; if Greece wins, we’ll be 3pts in profit; and if Israel wins, we’ll be 5.7pts in profit. However, it’s hard to see Greece or Israel not finishing in the top four, so hopefully, that profit view grows with a placing (or two).

Eurovision Prop Bet Tip

• United Kingdom [To Finish Last] 5/2 - 1pt
• Estonia to finish last 25/1 - 0.5pt

The UK entry is pretty poor, to say the least, and they’ve lost their ally in Ireland.

This bet could be over by Saturday if Estonia doesn't qualify, but with a decreased number of countries in Eurovision, qualifying has gotten a lot easier.