Abu Dhabi GP: Max Verstappen set to battle it out with McLaren duo Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for his 5th F1 title.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds
The 2025 Formula 1 season comes down to a spectacular finale at the Yas Marina Circuit, where Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri will fight for the World Drivers’ Championship. With only a handful of points separating the three, Abu Dhabi Grand Prix promises to deliver one of the most dramatic title deciders in modern F1 history.
Max Verstappen has been here before. He first claimed the crown in the highly controversial 2021 finale and has held onto the World Drivers’ Championship ever since. To finally end his reign, Norris or Piastri will need to deliver the performance of their careers. One mistake could cost them the championship—one moment of brilliance could win it all.
The 2025 title fight tightened after the Qatar Grand Prix, where Max Verstappen won ahead of Oscar Piastri, with Lando Norris finishing fourth. Verstappen’s victory cut Norris’ lead to just 12 points and gave the Red Bull driver crucial momentum at a key stage of the season.
Piastri’s second place also kept him in mathematical contention, while Norris’ damage-limiting drive ensured he stayed on top of the standings. The result sets up a three-way showdown at Yas Marina, with all three drivers still able to win the championship based on their finishing combinations.
Who is the favourite to win the F1 Drivers World Championship?
At the time of publishing, Max Verstappen's odds have shortened drastically to win the F1 Drivers' Championship from 20/1 to 3/1 following his Qatar Grand Prix victory. Lando Norris remains the 1/3 betting favourite but that position has weakened from 1/6 before Sunday's Grand Prix.
Norris' McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri, is the 14/1 underdog to claim the Drivers' Championship at the start of the final week of the F1 season. He must win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and hope both Norris finishes sixth or lower and Verstappen doesn't finish on the podium.
| 2025 World Championship Winner | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 1/3 | Betfred |
| Max Verstappen | 3/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Oscar Piastri | 16/1 | bet365 |
Odds last updated on 10AM Sunday, 7th December.
F1 Title Permutations:
How can Lando Norris win the Drivers Championship 2025?
Lando Norris enters the final race with a crucial 12-point lead over Max Verstappen. This cushion gives him the widest path to the championship. In short, a podium finish guarantees him the world title, regardless of how Verstappen or Piastri perform. Even finishing as low as sixth keeps him safe—provided Verstappen fails to finish second or better.
Norris has been in superb form across recent races, consistently finishing ahead of the Red Bull star. However, the pressure of closing out a maiden world title against a four-time champion adds a psychological layer to the challenge. If he keeps his composure and avoids trouble, the championship remains firmly in his hands.
| Lando Norris finish | Max Verstappen finish | Oscar Piastri finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Doesn't matter | Doesn't matter |
| 2nd | Doesn't matter | Doesn't matter |
| 3rd | Doesn't matter | Doesn't matter |
| 4th | 2nd or lower | Doesn't matter |
| 5th | 2nd or lower | Doesn't matter |
| 6th | 2nd or lower | 2nd or lower |
| 7th | 2nd or lower | 2nd or lower |
| 8th | 3rd or lower | 2nd or lower |
| 9th | 4th or lower | 2nd or lower |
| 10th | 4th or lower | 3rd or lower |
| Outside the points | 4th or lower | 3rd or lower |
How can Max Verstappen win the Drivers Championship 2025?
Max Verstappen remains the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and second-favourite to win the Drivers’ Championship, thanks to his unmatched experience in high-pressure finales. The Dutchman clinches the championship outright if he wins the race and Norris finishes fourth or lower. Even a runner-up finish keeps him alive, but only if Norris slips to eighth or lower and Piastri finishes third or lower.
| Max Verstappen finish | Lando Norris finish | Oscar Piastri finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4th or lower | Doesn't matter |
| 2nd | 8th or lower | 3rd or lower |
| 3rd | 9th or lower | 2nd or lower |
According to latest odds, Verstappen is the strongest contender to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and with Red Bull traditionally strong at Yas Marina, he remains a major threat. If he controls the race from the front, Norris will be forced into a defensive drive to protect his points lead.
How can Oscar Piastri win the Drivers Championship 2025?
Oscar Piastri needs a near-perfect storm to pull off a shock championship triumph. The Australian must win the race and then hope Norris finishes sixth or lower. His chances improve slightly if he finishes second—though that scenario only works if Norris finishes 10th or lower and Verstappen finishes fourth or lower. Despite being a long shot, Piastri has shown exceptional pace in recent grands prix.
| Oscar Piastri finish | Lando Norris finish | Max Verstappen finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6th or lower | Doesn't matter |
| 2nd | 10th or lower | 4th or lower |
With odds sitting around 14/1 for the Drivers’ Championship, he remains an outside option for bettors who enjoy high-value long-odds plays.
Who is the betting favourite to win the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025?
According to latest odds, Max Verstappen is the slight favourite to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with an implied won probability of 40%. However, Lando Norris is closeby with an implied win probability of roughly 28%.
According to Oddschecker, Verstappen has attracted 56.85% of bets to win the Abu Dhabi GP since last week. Lando Norris follows with around 19%, while Oscar Piastri trails in third with 9% of bets.
| Abu Dhabi GP Winner | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 13/5 | Betfred |
| Max Verstappen | 7/2 | BresBet |
| Oscar Piastri | 10/1 | AK Bet |
Odds last updated on 10AM Sunday, 7th December.
Before last season’s sixth-place finish, Verstappen had won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix four consecutive times. Norris claimed victory last year, while Piastri will need a remarkable performance to keep his championship hopes alive.
Midnite
F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Tips
Tip 1 - Lando Norris - Fastest Qualifier and Race Winner - 1pt
Best odds of 7/2 available on Skybet at the time of publishing.
The pole sitter at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix has dominated in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 races. The only exception was Nico Rosberg in 2014, whose Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton went on to take victory. Considering Lando Norris’ strong form and McLaren’s slightly superior car, he is well-placed to claim pole position on Saturday.
Norris has also won the pole position in three of the previous four races so he will be looking to maintain his excellent qualifying run.
Tip 2 - Charles Leclerc to get a top-6 finish - 1pt
Best odds of 8/11 at Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.
Ferrari star Charles Leclerc has competed in six Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, finishing in the top six on four occasions. Notably, he has reached the podium in the last three races here. Despite Ferrari’s recent struggles and the intense three-way title battle, a podium seems unlikely.
However, Leclerc’s strong past form at Yas Marina makes a top-six finish plausible. With odds of 8/11, backing him looks like an appealing bet despite Ferrari’s recent lacklustre performances.
Tip 3 - Safety Car in the race - Yes - 1.5pt
Best odds of 20/23 available on Boyle Sports at the time of publishing.Since its inauguration in 2009, the Safety Car has been deployed just five times at Yas Marina. However, every Abu Dhabi title decider, notably in 2021, involved a Safety Car, suggesting potential drama this weekend.
F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Bet Builder - 0.25pt stake advised.
Lando Norris - Fastest Qualifier and Race Winner
Safety Car in the race - Yes
Charles Leclerc to get a top-6 finish
Best odds of 12/1 available at bet365 at the time of publishing.
