Old dog Pettis can outlast ageing Cowboy

I strongly fancy Anthony Pettis (7/2) to have more in the tank than the ageing Donald Cerrone. In what would normally be a five-round main event, we’re only getting three rounds, thus making the decision more likely.

In the first fight between the two, Pettis landed a killer body kick, a well-known Achilles heel of Cowboy’s Budweiser drinking, and I can see that being another big target for Showtime.

Pettis is coming off five decisions in his last 12 fights (in front of fans), and I think there’s value in backing him at 11/4 to win by decision, despite his last two outings.

Anthony Pettis to win by decision - 2pts @ 7/2

Cejudo can Cruz to victory over former champ

Another value play that catches the eye for me is in the co-main event, featuring a title fight between Henry Cejudo and Dominic Cruz.

I fancy the former’s wrestling to prove too problematic for Cruz, and I anticipate a lot of top action for Cejudo, resulting in a decision victory.

The former Olympic wrestler has seven decisions in 11 UFC fights, with the Flyweight division holding the highest decision-rate in men’s MMA.

Despite Cruz’ crafty footwork, I think Cejudo’s constant forward pressure and takedown threat will be too much for the former champ, Cruz.

Cejudo is odds-on with bookies at 4/9 to win in any form, which I would advise taking if you’re building an acca on Saturday night.

However, I’m again looking at the decision line when Cejudo is a best price of 8/5 to win on points, which I think is a shade too big.

Henry Cejudo to win by decision - 2pts @ 8/5

Back Gaethje to go to the judges for the first time in the UFC

Finally, the main event. Although we were robbed of the much-maligned Tony Ferguson vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, the replacement scrap is tremendous.

Justin Gaethje holds one of the most entertaining fighting styles in the sport, promising non-stop action and highlight-reel finishes. Sound a bit like Tony Ferguson?

Under normal circumstances, I would not be looking at the decision line, but with no fans in the audience, I think there’s huge value.

We’ve seen Ferguson win decisive victories over the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Josh Thomson and Danny Castillo, but it’s not something he’s accustomed to.

T-Ferg has a multitude of ways he can finish a fight, as displayed in his back-to-back doctor stoppages of Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, as previously discussed.

Gaethje is a formidable opponent who is younger, fitter and has crucially taken less damage throughout his career, and I can see him hanging with Ferguson.

To be clear, this isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome of the fight, especially considering Gaethje has never gone to the judges in the UFC, but I’m backing the value.

6/1 is simply too long for a fighter I fancy to win by decision, with no fans, in what is an even matchup that could well go the distance.

Tony Ferguson to win by decision - 1pt @ 6/1