Italy Grand Prix: F1 returns to Monza after Lando Norris won consecutive races in Hungary and Zandvoort.
Formula 1 heads to Monza for the Italian Grand Prix, with the famous Temple of Speed providing another fascinating betting opportunity as the 2026 season reaches its 13th round.
Mercedes have been the benchmark for much of the campaign, with Kimi Antonelli arriving at his home race as the championship leader after six victories this season, although Ferrari have shown plenty of pace at Monza so far. Charles Leclerc topped FP1, while George Russell responded by setting the fastest time in FP2, with Antonelli third fastest in the latter session.
There is also a major storyline surrounding Antonelli, who will start from the back of the grid after taking a power unit penalty, making his podium prospects all the more intriguing.
With that in mind, here are our three best bets for Sunday's race.
TIP 1: Kimi Antonelli - Podium Finish
Best odds: 3/1 (BetVictor)
Stake: 1pt
The first selection is Kimi Antonelli to finish on the podium, with the 3/1 available at BetVictor looking surprisingly generous for the current championship leader.
The obvious concern is Antonelli's grid penalty, which means he will have to fight his way through the field at his home Grand Prix rather than starting from his qualifying position. However, Mercedes have been exceptional throughout the season, with Antonelli winning six races already and teammate George Russell adding another two victories. Mercedes also lead Ferrari by 87 points in the constructors' championship.
Antonelli's underlying form makes the price particularly interesting. He finished second at the Dutch Grand Prix last time out, behind Lando Norris and ahead of Russell, and has established himself as one of the most consistent front-running drivers on the grid.
There is also something undeniably poetic about the prospect of an Italian driver standing on the Monza podium as the championship leader. Antonelli is the first Italian to lead the F1 championship at his home Grand Prix since 1953, and while the grid penalty makes this a much tougher task, Mercedes' pace means it would be unwise to rule him out of a podium charge.
At 3/1, the risk is reflected in the price, but the upside is substantial if Antonelli can make his way through the midfield and Mercedes maintain the race pace they have shown so far this weekend.
TIP 2: Pierre Gasly - Points Finish
Best odds: 7/4 (BetMGM UK)
Stake: 1pt
The second selection is Pierre Gasly to finish inside the points, with 7/4 at BetMGM UK offering an appealing price given Alpine's improved prospects with Mercedes power.
Gasly has not finished inside the top 10 since putting together consecutive top-10 results with AlphaTauri, a run that also included his maiden Formula 1 victory. That makes this selection look risky at first glance, but the current Alpine package offers a very different proposition to some of the machinery Gasly has driven in recent years.
The team is now powered by Mercedes, and Monza's long straights and high-speed nature place considerable emphasis on power-unit performance. With Mercedes demonstrating strong pace during Friday practice, there is reason to believe Alpine could be competitive enough to put Gasly into contention for points. George Russell topped FP2, with the Mercedes-powered package showing strong performance at a circuit where straight-line efficiency is crucial.
Gasly has also shown that he can deliver a result when the car gives him the opportunity. His Monaco podium earlier this season was initially stripped before being reinstated following Alpine's successful Right of Review, although the result was subsequently overturned again after further appeal.
The recent results have not been kind to Gasly, but 7/4 for a points finish feels like a worthwhile price if Alpine can translate its new Mercedes power into genuine race pace at Monza.
TIP 3: Cadillac - First Car Retirement
Best odds: 13/2 (bet365)
Stake: 0.5pts
The final selection is Cadillac to be the first car to retire, with 13/2 at bet365 available for a smaller 0.5-point stake.
This is naturally the most volatile of the three bets, but the price makes it an interesting speculative option in a market where one mechanical issue, incident or strategic problem can immediately change the complexion of the race.
Monza is an especially demanding circuit, with cars spending around 76% of a lap at full throttle, while the 2026 race covers 53 laps and more than 306 kilometres. That combination places significant demands on power units and the cars' overall reliability.
Cadillac are still finding their feet in Formula 1, and a race at Monza represents a serious test of their package. The long straights leave little room to hide deficiencies in straight-line performance, while the braking zones and high-speed demands can create additional pressure on both car and driver.
The rookie F1 team also had double DNF in Hungary and cleared this leg then. Bottas also retired his car in Zandvoort and there has been at least one Cadillac retirement in each of the last three Grand Prixs.
