We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Monday 27th October's NBA matches.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best player props from the Positive Expected Value tool for Monday 27th October's NBA slate.
Bet 1: Amen Thompson - Under 5.5 Assists vs Brooklyn Nets
Best price 8/11 with BetVictor at the time of publishing. As short as 8/13 elsewhere.
Amen Thompson appears set to fall short of this assists line in a Rockets system that spreads playmaking across Fred VanVleet and others, where he's averaged 3.0 assists through two early games with outputs of 1 and 5, suggesting inconsistent facilitation rather than high-volume creation.
Brooklyn's defense, allowing about 4.4 assists to small forwards and 5.66 overall to guard-forward positions in small-sample early data, could further limit his opportunities, especially if Thompson's recent 1-assist performance in 30 minutes signals a trend toward scoring focus over passing.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 76.17%, so the odds of 8/11 with BetVictor give us a Positive EV of 31.77% on this play.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Bet 2: Santi Aldama - Over 5.5 Rebounds vs Golden State Warriors
8/11 best odds available with BetVictor at the time of publishing. As short as 1/2 elsewhere.
Santi Aldama should comfortably exceed this rebounds threshold as Memphis' versatile big man, posting 8, 8, and 6 boards across three games for a 7.3 average in around 22 minutes per outing, demonstrating steady glass-cleaning even in limited time.
Golden State's frontcourt defense, conceding 9.9 rebounds to power forwards and 16.5 to centers early on (with an overall 7.73 to bigs), plays into Aldama's hybrid role, particularly if the Grizzlies exploit mismatches against a Warriors unit ranked mid-pack in opponent defensive rebounds at 33.3 per game.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 76.04%, so the odds of 8/11 with BetVictor give us a Positive EV of 31.55% on this play.
Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs
Bet 3: Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5 Assists vs Toronto
1/1 best odds available with Ladbrokes/Coral when publishing. 10/11 widely available.
Evidence leans toward Victor Wembanyama staying below this assists mark, as the Spurs' phenom has averaged 2.3 dimes through three games with tallies of 4, 2, and 1, prioritizing scoring and rebounding over playmaking in his 33-minute average role.
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Toronto's interior defense, allowing 5.46 assists to centers in initial matchups, may restrict his facilitation further, aligning with Wembanyama's low-volume trend that echoes his 3.4 assists average over his last 30 games from the prior season.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 75.11%, so the odds of 1/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral give us a Positive EV of 50.22% on this play.
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
Bet 4: Nikola Vucevic - Under 19.5 Points vs Atlanta
1/1 best price available with SpreadEx and Sporting Index.
Nikola Vucevic could dip below this points total amid fluctuating early output, averaging 21.5 through two games but dropping to 15 in his latest 31-minute effort, potentially signaling shared scoring in Chicago's backcourt-heavy attack.
Atlanta's defense against centers, allowing 20.9 to 24.13 points in small-sample data, might contest his efficient 64% shooting effectively if the Hawks' active interior—ranked 20th in opponent points at 120.7 per game—limits his touches.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69.27%, so the odds of 1/1 with SpreadEx and Sporting Index give us a Positive EV of 38.54% on this play.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Bet 5: DeAndre Hunter - Over 3.5 Rebounds vs Pistons
5/6 best price available with BetVictor.
DeAndre Hunter looks poised to surpass this rebounds line in his Cavaliers tenure, grabbing 4 boards in his lone game so far in 27 minutes, building on a 4.4 average from his last 10 outings that highlights opportunistic crashing despite a wing role.
Detroit's leaky frontcourt, surrendering 7.8 rebounds to small forwards and 10.5 to power forwards (8.97 overall to wings), offers ample chances, especially given the Pistons' 22nd ranking in opponent defensive rebounds at 38.0 per game.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73.95%, so the odds of 5/6 with BetVictor give us a Positive EV of 35.33% on this play.
