How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

We picked out three winners from five bets in yesterday's NBA selections.

Shown below are our five best player props from the Positive Expected Value tool for Tuesday October 28th's NBA slate.

Tip 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds vs Knicks

1/1 best price available with William Hill. As short as 8/11 elsewhere.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is dominating the boards early this season, averaging 16.0 rebounds through three games with tallies of 14, 20, and 14, leveraging his athleticism and positioning in Milwaukee's frontcourt amid a system that emphasizes rebounding opportunities.

The Knicks' defense, allowing 10.0 rebounds to power forwards and 13.9 to centers in initial data, may struggle to contain his relentless pursuit, especially with Mitchell Robinson out due to an ankle injury, potentially opening more second-chance looks if the Bucks control the glass.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 77.42%, so the odds of 1/1 with William Hill give us a Positive EV of 54.84% on this play. 

Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder

Tip 2: DeMar DeRozan Over 3.5 Rebounds vs Thunder

10/11 best price available with BetMGM and Paddy Power. 

DeMar DeRozan has adapted well to Sacramento, averaging 5.0 rebounds across three outings with grabs of 6, 3, and 6, showcasing his mid-range scoring that often positions him for defensive boards in transition.

Oklahoma City's stout defense concedes 9.6 rebounds to small forwards and 5.1 to shooting guards early on, but DeRozan's veteran savvy and the Kings' pace could yield cleanup opportunities, particularly if OKC focuses on perimeter containment.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 77.32%, so the odds of 10/11 with Paddy Power & BetMGM give us a Positive EV of 47.68% on this play. 

Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards

Tip 3: Quentin Grimes Over 3.5 Rebounds vs Washington

17/20 best price available with Coral and Labrokes.

Quentin Grimes is contributing steadily for Philadelphia, averaging 4.3 rebounds in three games (5, 3, 5) while logging 29.3 minutes, capitalizing on his wing athleticism for defensive rebounds in transition.

Washington's leaky defense surrenders 5.5 rebounds to shooting guards and 6.6 to small forwards early, offering Grimes ample chances, especially with Bilal Coulibaly out (hand) weakening their perimeter rebounding.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.04%, so the odds of 17/20 with Coral and Ladbrokes give us a Positive EV of 31.42% on this play. 

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors

Tip 4: John Collins Over 5.5 Rebounds vs Golden State

17/20 best price available with Coral and Labrokes.

John Collins has been reliable for the Clippers, averaging 6.3 rebounds through three appearances (6, 6, 7) in 26 minutes per game, using his mobility for both offensive and defensive boards.

Golden State's frontcourt allows 7.74 rebounds to power forwards and centers in small-sample data, setting up well for Collins' aggression, particularly if the Warriors' no reported injuries maintain their mid-pack rebounding.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 68.28%, so the odds of 17/20 with Coral and Ladbrokes give us a Positive EV of 26.32% on this play. 

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat

Tip 5: Andrew Wiggins Under 19.5 Points vs Charlotte

5/6 best price available with BetVictor.

Andrew Wiggins appears primed to fall short of this points line in a Heat offense that distributes scoring across multiple options, where he's averaged 12.3 points through three early games with tallies of 9, 10, and 18, reflecting limited shot volume (9.7 attempts per game) and inefficiency from deep (20.0% on threes).

Charlotte's defense against small forwards, allowing 19.5 points per 48 minutes (mid-tier ranking) and 23.66 FanDuel-equivalent points in small-sample data, should further contain his output, especially with no injury concerns but a game-manager role emphasizing defense over high-volume scoring.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70.02%, so the odds of 5/6 with BetVictor give us a Positive EV of 28.14% on this play.