We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value player props for Wednesday 28th October's NBA matches.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best player props from the Positive Expected Value tool for Wednesday October 28th's NBA slate.
Tip 1: Jamal Murray - Over 3.5 Rebounds vs New Orleans
Jamal Murray is off to a strong start in the 2025-26 season, averaging 5.0 rebounds per game through his first three outings, which positions him well to exceed this modest threshold against a Pelicans defense that's been notably generous to opposing point guards.
With outputs of 6, 6, and 3 rebounds in those games, he's cleared 3.5 in two of three, benefiting from extended minutes (around 36 per contest) and Denver's playstyle that often sees him crashing the boards in transition or on missed shots.
New Orleans has allowed an average of 9.79 rebounds to point guards early on, a vulnerability amplified by injuries to key defenders like Dejounte Murray (out with an Achilles rupture) and Zion Williamson (questionable with a foot contusion), potentially opening more opportunities for Murray in a matchup where the Nuggets are favored to control the pace.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 78.52%, so the odds of 4/5 with William Hill give us a Positive EV of 41.34% on this play.
Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors
Tip 2: Sandro Mamukelashvili - Under 5.5 Rebounds vs Houston
Sandro Mamukelashvili seems likely to stay below this rebounds threshold in a Raptors frontcourt rotation where he's averaged 2.7 boards through four games with outputs of 0, 1, 3, and 4, reflecting a bench role focused more on scoring and spacing than crashing the glass.
Houston's defense, allowing around 17.1 points and 7.7 rebounds to small forwards but tighter on bigs (18.3 to PF), may limit his opportunities, especially if Jakob Poeltl returns from doubtfulness, keeping Mamukelashvili's minutes in the mid-teens as seen recently.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 74.55%, so the odds of 20/21 with Boyle Sports give us a Positive EV of 45.37% on this play.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Tip 3: Jalen Suggs - Over 2.5 Rebounds vs Detroit
Jalen Suggs should surpass this modest rebounds line as Orlando's energetic guard, posting 6, 3, and 4 boards in his three outings for a 4.3 average while playing 19 minutes per game on average.
Detroit's perimeter defense has been generous to guards, conceding 8.8 rebounds to PGs and 6.4 to SGs early on, aligning with Suggs' defensive-minded style that often positions him for cleanup rebounds in transition.
BetMGM UK
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.77%, so the odds of 1/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral give us a Positive EV of 43.54% on this play.
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets
Tip 4: Onyeka Okongwu - Over 7.5 Rebounds vs Brooklyn
Onyeka Okongwu looks set to exceed this rebounds mark in Atlanta's frontcourt, where he's averaged 8.0 boards across four games with tallies of 10, 12, 4, and 6, benefiting from extended minutes (around 32 per game) amid the Hawks' interior focus.
Brooklyn's defense has been vulnerable to centers, allowing 24.2 points and 12.7 rebounds to the position in early data, creating ample opportunities for Okongwu's athletic rebounding against a Nets unit ranked mid-pack overall.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.77%, so the odds of 10/11 with QuinnBet give us a Positive EV of 45.31% on this play.
Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls
Tip 5: Matas Buzelis - Under 16.5 Points vs Sacramento
Matas Buzelis could fall short of this points total as a Bulls rookie still adjusting, averaging 13.3 across three games with scores of 16, 3, and 21, but showing inefficiency (45.2% FG) in limited but variable minutes (26 average).
Sacramento's defense clamps down on forwards, allowing just 20.2 to SFs and 21.6 to PFs, potentially curbing Buzelis' scoring in a matchup favoring the Kings' perimeter containment.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.1%, so the odds of 10/11 with Ladbrokes & Coral give us a Positive EV of 35.8% on this play.
