We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Sunday's NFL Week 6matchups.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best Anytime Touchdown Bets bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Week 6 NFL slate.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 7.44pts in profit for this season so far.
Bet 1: De’Von Achane — Anytime TD (Chargers @ Dolphins) - 1pt
1/1 available with SpreadEx and Sporting Index at the time of writing. 10/11 widely available.
Achane has been Miami’s most reliable scorer to start the season, with four touchdowns in five games — three receiving, one rushing — and heavy usage in the passing game (25 catches on 32 targets).
With Tua Tagovailoa expected to play and Tyreek Hill sidelined for the year, the Dolphins’ red-zone and big-play touches increasingly flow through Achane’s speed and versatility.
The matchup suits: the Chargers have struggled on the ground so far, giving up 4.8 yards per rush and five rushing TDs, and they’ve been hit by explosive plays in space.
Even if L.A. tighten up near the goal line, Achane’s receiver role gives him extra routes to a score from outside the five.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 76.77%, so the odds of 1/1 with SpreadEx available gives us a Positive EV of 53.54% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/6.
Bet 2: Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime TD (Lions @ Chiefs) - 1pt
29/20 available with bet365 at the time of publishing. 11/10 and greater widely available.
Amon-Ra has already scored six receiving touchdowns in just four games, leading the league in that category — he’s on pace like he’s locked into end-zone work every week. He’s also been ultra efficient in the red zone: eight catches on 10 targets inside the 20, with three of those turning into touchdowns — that’s a 75% conversion rate in high-leverage areas. (He’s one of the best in the league when it comes to turning red-zone touches into scores.)
Kansas City’s defense against receivers has had cracks, particularly when teams get creative with routes over the middle or use motion to force matchup problems. Plus, the Lions know they’ll lean on their passing attack in tight games, and St. Brown runs enough route volume (outside / slot) that he’ll be featured in red-zone and intermediate scoring designs.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 57.43%, so the odds of 29/20 with bet365 available gives us a Positive EV of 40.7% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 1/1.
Bet 3: Romeo Doubs — Anytime TD (Bengals @ Packers) - 1pt
15/8 available with multiple bookmakers at the time of publishing.
Romeo Doubs has been one of the most consistent scoring threats in Green Bay’s offence this season, with four touchdowns in four games — including a standout performance in Week 4 against Dallas, where he caught six passes for 58 yards and three scores. He’s become Jordan Love’s go-to target inside the 20, regularly drawing red-zone looks and timing routes near the pylon.
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The Bengals’ secondary has struggled in recent weeks, giving up over 280 passing yards per game across their last two outings, and their red-zone defence has been far from watertight. Playing at Lambeau, with the Packers’ passing attack improving week by week, Doubs should again be a key part of their scoring plan — especially with Christian Watson still easing back from injury.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 45.23%, so the odds of 15/8 available gives us a Positive EV of 30.26% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 7/4.
Bet 4: Tre Tucker — Anytime TD (Titans @ Raiders) - 1pt
11/4 available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet at the time of publishing. 5/2 and better widely available.
Tucker has real end-zone form this season, sitting on 4 receiving touchdowns already and coming off a headline 145-yard, 3-TD outing a couple of weeks back. He’s a starting wideout for Las Vegas and gets schemed touches both deep and on quick hitters, so he can score from distance or in the red zone.
Back at Allegiant Stadium on a quick surface, the Raiders should lean into the passing game against a Titans side that has given up chunk plays through the air and struggled to string together clean defensive outings. Even with the Raiders’ red-zone efficiency a work in progress, Tucker’s speed and usage give him multiple paths to a score — one vertical or a designed shot near the goal line can land this.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 41.72%, so the odds of 11/4 available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet gives us a juicy Positive EV of 56.45% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/2.
Bet 5: Calvin Austin — Anytime TD (Steelers @ Browns) - 1pt
29/10 available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet at the time of publishing.
Calvin Austin gives Pittsburgh their pure speed threat — the kind of player who can score in more than one way. The Steelers scheme him touches on jet sweeps, quick screens and deep shots off play-action, so he has paths to the end zone from both short and long range.
In a tight divisional game where yards are hard to come by, that burst matters: one missed tackle on a quick throw, or one blown coverage on a go route, and he’s away.
Cleveland’s defence is elite on paper, but they play plenty of aggressive looks that can be punished if the first line is beaten, and Austin’s movement pre-snap often forces those matchups.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 34.79%, so the odds of 29/10 available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet gives us a Positive EV of 39.16% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/2.
