We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Sunday's NFL Week 8 matchups.
49ers @ Texans
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best Anytime Touchdown Bets bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Week 8 NFL slate.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 6.85pts in profit for this season so far.
Tip 1: Christian McCaffrey - Anytime TD vs Texans - 2pts
20/29 best price with bet365 at time of publishing. 8/13 widely available. Play no lower than 1/2.
Christian McCaffrey is San Francisco’s do-it-all weapon, dominating as both a rusher and receiver with 6 total TDs (3 rushing, 3 receiving) through 7 games.
The Texans’ run defense is porous, ranking 22nd in red-zone stops and allowing a league-high 18 rushing TDs.
With a projected game total of 45.5 points and SF favored, expect McCaffrey to see 15+ touches, including goal-line carries.
His dual-threat ability and his record vs Houston (10 TDs in 7 career games), makes him a prime candidate to punch it in.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 74.5`%, so the odds of 20/29 with bet365 available gives us a Positive EV of 25.83% on this play.
Giants @ Eagles
Tip 2: Dallas Goedert - Anytime TD vs Giants - 1pt
21/10 best price available with William Hill, BetMGM, and Virgin Bet at time of publishing. Play no lower than 7/4.
Goedert is Philadelphia’s go-to red-zone target among tight ends, tying for the league lead with 5 TDs on just 27 catches.
The Giants struggle mightily against TEs, ranking 28th by allowing 5.2 receptions per game, and their secondary is depleted post-Slayton injury.
Philly’s -10 spread projects a commanding lead, funneling red-zone looks to Goedert, who had 9 catches in their Week 6 rout. His 75% conversion rate on targets inside the 10 makes this a high-value prop.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 48.19%, so the odds of 21/10 with William Hill available gives us a Positive EV of 49.39% on this play.
Cowboys @ Broncos
Tip 3: George Pickens - Anytime TD vs Broncos - 1pt
21/10 best odds available with bet365. Play no lower than 7/4.
Pickens has been a touchdown machine since joining Dallas, racking up 6 scores on 36 receptions with a 20% target share.
Denver’s secondary, ranked 25th against WRs, is prone to allowing big plays (1.8 passing TDs/game), and Pickens’ 16.9 yards per catch thrives in high-altitude shootouts.
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With the Cowboys likely trailing (-3 spread), increased pass volume favors Pickens’ deep-threat ability, especially on contested catches where he ranks top-5. This matchup screams a splash-play score.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 47.42%, so the odds of 21/10 with bet365 available gives us a juicy Positive EV of 51.74% on this play.
Titans @ Colts
Tip 4: Michael Pittman Jr. - Anytime TD vs Titans - 1pt
31/20 best odds with BetMGM. 6/4 widely available. Play no lower than 6/4.
Pittman is Indy’s alpha receiver, commanding a 47% red-zone target share and scoring 5 TDs in 7 games.
Tennessee’s pass defense is a bottom-5 unit, coughing up 7.1 yards per attempt and 12 passing TDs.
With the Colts favored by 14 points in a projected 47-point game, Pittman’s role as the primary option in blowout scripts—where he’s scored in 4 of 5 recent games—sets him up for goal-line looks.
His history vs. the Titans (4 TDs in 6 games) seals the deal.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 47.26%, so the odds of 31/20 with BetMGM available gives us a Positive EV of 20.51% on this play.
Bills @ Panthers
Tip 5: Dalton Kincaid - Anytime TD vs Panthers - 1pt
Best odds of 23/10 with Paddy Power and bet365. Play no lower than 9/5.
Kincaid is Buffalo’s rising star at tight end, leveraging an 83% catch rate and 3 TDs in high-scoring games. Carolina’s defense is a sieve against TEs, ranking 28th by allowing 6.3 receptions per game.
With Buffalo favored by 7.5 points and a post-bye offensive surge expected, Kincaid’s 1.9 red-zone targets per game and +0.21 EPA per target make him a sneaky bet.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 39.54%, so the odds of 23/10 with Paddy Power available gives us a Positive EV of 34.44% on this play.
