We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
Tip 1: Jalen McMillan (TB) – Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
1.5pts at best odds of 8/11 with SpreadEx and Unibet.
Tampa Bay wide receiver Jalen McMillan has quickly re-established himself as a key playmaker since returning from injury, and his recent performances suggest he’s well placed to top the 29.5 receiving-yards line once again.
He was used cautiously against Carolina in Week 16, managing just 15 yards while easing back into action, but his role has increased sharply since — highlighted by a breakout 7-catch, 114-yard display against Miami in Week 17.
McMillan’s profile suits yardage props too, with his 15.2 yards-per-reception average meaning it often only takes two or three catches for him to clear this mark.
He also has a proven late-season surge history, having finished his rookie campaign with 7 touchdowns across the final five games, leading the NFL in that stretch.
With confidence building and big-play ability on his side, McMillan looks a strong candidate to go over 29.5 receiving yards.
Tip 2: Cade Otton – Over 2.5 Receptions
1pt at odds of 13/10 with bet365 and William Hill.
Cade Otton has been one of Tampa Bay’s most reliable short-yardage outlets this season, averaging 3.5 catches per game across his campaign.
His two-catch return in the first meeting with Carolina looks more like an outlier than a trend, especially given his increased involvement in recent weeks — including 4 receptions for 33 yards against Miami last time out.
Earlier in the year, Otton enjoyed a sustained spell of heavy usage, recording 35 catches between Weeks 3 and 8 and ultimately finishing the season with a career-high 59 receptions.
As a trusted safety valve for Baker Mayfield, he regularly sees a steady flow of underneath targets, particularly in tight or structured offensive game scripts.
With both his seasonal averages and recent form supporting the pick, Otton looks well placed to land 3+ receptions and clear the 2.5 line.
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Tip 3: Tetairoa McMillan – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
1pt at best odds of 7/4 with SpreadEx.
Carolina rookie wideout Tetairoa “T-Mac” McMillan has quickly emerged as the Panthers’ primary receiving threat, particularly in the red zone, and his profile makes him a strong anytime touchdown contender here.
He made a big impact in the Week 16 win over Tampa Bay with 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown, one of 7 TDs on the season — a tally that already places him among the most prolific scorers at his position.
Standing 6’5” with elite jump-ball ability, McMillan has been a natural go-to option near the goal line and has backed up his first-round pedigree by leading Carolina in receiving yards and touchdowns as a rookie.
Head coach Dave Canales has also made it clear that McMillan is the focal point of the passing attack, with the Panthers consistently scheming ways to get him touches in key situations.
With heavy usage, proven scoring threat and success against this opponent already on the board, McMillan looks a strong bet to find the end zone again as an anytime touchdown scorer.
Tip 4: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (Point Spread)
1pt at best odds of 21/20 with Boyle Sports.
Taking the Panthers with a +2.5 start looks appealing in what profiles as another tight divisional matchup. Carolina have already shown they can live with Tampa Bay, edging a 23–20 victory in Week 16, and there’s little to suggest a wide-margin result this time around.
The Buccaneers come into the rematch on a poor run, having lost four straight — and seven of their last eight — with the majority of those defeats decided by a single score, highlighting how often their games go down to fine margins.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have been inconsistent but competitive at 8–8, and still have everything to play for with the division on the line.
With neither side displaying the consistency to pull away and Tampa’s recent slump keeping games close, this has all the makings of a field-goal contest.
In that scenario, the +2.5 spread on Carolina offers solid value — and the Panthers look well placed to keep it within the number, if not win outright.
Tip 5: Bryce Young – Over 16.5 Rushing Yards
1.5pts at best odds of 17/20 with BetMGM.
Bryce Young’s mobility has quietly become a key part of Carolina’s offense in recent weeks, and his recent rushing output suggests he’s well positioned to clear the 16.5-yard line again here.
He posted 20 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in Week 16, and his willingness to scramble has increased since then — including a season-high 49 yards in Week 15 and 27 yards (with a rushing touchdown) last time out against Seattle.
Young has now gone over this mark in three of his last four games, using his legs smartly to escape pressure and extend drives rather than as a designed runner.
In a high-stakes, must-win scenario, those instinctive scrambles are only likely to become more frequent as he looks to keep plays alive.
With his recent workload averaging 4–5 rushing attempts per game and proven success against this same opponent already on record, Young looks a strong candidate to surpass 16.5 rushing yards once again.
