Check out our three betting tips for Saturday night's NFL playoff showdown between the Chicago Bears & Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the NFL Playoff clash between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
Tip 1: Emanuel Wilson Over 14.5 Rushing Yards — 10/11
Suggested stake: 0.75pts
Wilson only needs a handful of touches to clear this number, and he’s already shown he can get there against Chicago — rushing 14 times for 82 yards in the most recent meeting at Soldier Field. He also saw carries in the earlier clash at Lambeau (3 rushes, 10 yards), so Green Bay have been comfortable spelling their lead back with him in this matchup. Chicago’s run defence has been vulnerable all season, allowing 134.5 opponent rushing yards per game. In a playoff spot where efficiency and ball security matter, Green Bay’s tendency to keep a two-back rotation makes a low Wilson rushing line attractive at 10/11.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70%, so the odds of 10/11 with bet365 gives us a Positive EV of 33% on this play.
Key stats
82 rush yards vs Bears (Week 16).
Bears allowed 134.5 opponent rush yds/game in 2025.
BetMGM UK
Tip 2: Cole Kmet Over 11.5 Receiving Yards — 10/11
Suggested stake: 1pt
Kmet’s line is set extremely low for a tight end who can cash it on a single catch, and he’s cleared it in both regular-season meetings with Green Bay (including 2 catches for 14 yards in the Week 16 win). He also went 2 for 42 in the earlier matchup at Lambeau, underlining that the Bears are happy to involve him even when the game plan isn’t TE-heavy. With Chicago likely leaning on high-percentage throws in a tense playoff rivalry game, Kmet’s short-area routes give him a strong floor. At 10/11 (52.4% implied), this looks like a pragmatic “get on base” prop.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69%, so the odds of 10/11 with BetMGM gives us a Positive EV of 33% on this play.
Key stats
2 rec, 14 yds vs Packers (Week 16)
2 rec, 42 yds vs Packers (Week 14)
30 rec, 347 yds in 2025
Caleb Williams Over 203.5 Passing Yards — 10/11
Suggested stake: 0.75pts
Williams finished the regular season with 3,942 passing yards (7th in the NFL), and this line sits below his season-level production. He’s already cleared 203.5 against the Packers once, throwing for 250 yards in Chicago’s Week 16 win, and the matchup is workable against a Green Bay defence that conceded 3,516 passing yards across the season. The main concern is conditions — forecast calls for snow and breezier weather in Chicago — but playoff game scripts can still force volume if either side falls behind. At 10/11, it’s a playable number, though I’d keep stake sensible given the weather angle.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 65%, so the odds of 10/11 with bet365 gives us a Positive EV of 24% on this play.
Key stats
3,942 pass yards in 2025
250 pass yards vs Packers (Week 16)
Packers allowed 3,516 pass yards in 2025
Snow/breeze forecast for Jan 10 in Chicago
