We've picked out three betting tips & a bet builder for Sunday's NFL Playoff clash between the Buffalo Bills & Jacksonville Jaguars.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tip 1: Brenton Strange Over 16.5 Longest Reception — 10/11
Suggested stake: 0.75pts
Strange has the kind of usage profile that suits a longest catch prop, finishing the regular season with 46 receptions for 540 yards and multiple games featuring chunk gains. He’s cleared 16.5+ in 7 of the 12 games where he logged a catch this season (with long receptions of 22, 30, 21, 26, 23, 20 etc.), so this isn’t a “needs a miracle” number. In playoff football, defences often tilt coverage toward perimeter playmakers, which can create seam/over-route chances for tight ends off play-action—exactly the type of look that produces a 17–25 yard gain. At 10/11 (52.4% implied), the number looks fair-to-slight value if Jacksonville stay aggressive through the air in neutral game script.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 63%, so the odds of 10/11 with William Hill gives us a Positive EV of 21% on this play.
Key stats
Season: 46 rec, 540 yds, 3 TD
Long reception 17+ yards in 7/12 catch-games
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Tip 2: Travis Etienne Anytime TD — 8/11
Suggested stake: 1.5pts
Etienne’s touchdown profile is strong heading into the postseason: he posted 7 rushing TDs and 6 receiving TDs in the regular season (13 total), giving him multiple ways to get over the line. The matchup also helps—Buffalo conceded 24 opponent rushing TDs, tied for the most in the NFL this season, which is exactly the kind of defensive trend you want for an anytime market. With Jacksonville at home and entering on a big run (13–4; Bills 12–5), a playoff script that prioritises protecting the ball and finishing drives boosts the probability of Etienne getting goal-line and red-zone chances. The price is shorter at 8/11 (~57.9% implied), but Etienne’s multi-touchdown routes + Buffalo’s rush-TD leak make it one of the stronger angles here.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79%, so the odds of 8/11 with William Hill gives us a Positive EV of 37% on this play.
Key stats
13 total TDs (7 rush, 6 receiving)
Bills allowed 24 rushing TDs (T-most NFL)
Tip 3: Dawson Knox Over 12.5 Longest Reception — 10/11
Suggested stake: 0.75pts
Knox is a classic “one-play” candidate for a longest reception line, and he recorded 36 catches for 417 yards this season—enough involvement for a 13+ yard chunk to be live even on limited targets. Based on his ESPN game log, Knox cleared 12.5 in 10 of 17 regular-season games, and he’s been particularly reliable late in the year (over in 5 of his last 6, including longs of 16, 32, 19, 15, 17). Jacksonville’s defence is opportunistic and zone-heavy at times, and playoff game-planning often leans into tight ends as answers versus disguised coverages—helpful for a seam, sit, or deep over that can clear 13 yards in one catch. With 10/11 implying ~52%, the recent hit-rate makes this look like a sensible number play.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79%, so the odds of 8/11 with William Hill gives us a Positive EV of 37% on this play.
Key stats
Season: 36 rec, 417 yds, 4 TD
Long reception 13+ in 10/17 games; 5/6 to finish the season
Bills @ Jaguars Bet Builder Tip
Travis Etienne - Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Brenton Strange Over 16.5 Longest Reception
Dawson Knox Over 12.5 Longest Reception
The bet builder pays a best price of 4.9/1 with Paddy Power when writing. 0.5pts Advised Stake.
