Texans @ Steelers: Three Betting Tips Monday's NFL Playoff Clash

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for Monday's NFL Playoff clash between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Xavier Hutchinson Over 1.5 Receptions — 1/1

Suggested stake: 1pt

Hutchinson only needs two catches to land this, and he’s coming off his most involved outing of the season with 5 receptions on 9 targets for 84 yards vs the Colts (Jan 4). He’s also cleared 1.5 receptions in multiple recent spots when Houston’s game plan has leaned into short, efficient throws to keep the chains moving. Playoff football tends to compress the playbook into “trust throws” and high-percentage concepts, which helps secondary receivers hit small reception lines even without huge yardage. At evens (50% implied), the bar is low enough to justify value based on his recent target spike.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69%, so the odds of 1/1 with Betfred gives us a Positive EV of 38% on this play. 

Key stats

5 catches on 9 targets last game vs IND
2025 season: 35 receptions, 428 yards

Adam Thielen Over 10.5 Receiving Yards — 10/11

Suggested stake: 0.75pt

Thielen’s line is set at “one-catch territory”, and he’s shown he can clear it even in a reduced role: 49 yards at Detroit, 14 at Cleveland, and 43 vs Baltimore in his last five games. That’s 3 overs in his last 5, and in a playoff setting teams often lean on veteran route-runners to settle into zones and convert easy completions. With Pittsburgh’s injury report relatively clean heading into Monday night, the Steelers can keep their full package on the field and still rotate Thielen into specific passing looks. At 10/11 (~52% implied) it’s playable, but keep stakes sensible because his volume isn’t guaranteed.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 64%, so the odds of 10/11 with Betfred gives us a Positive EV of 22% on this play. 

Key stats

Last 5 receiving yards: 4, 7, 49, 14, 43
2025 season: 19 receptions, 186 yards

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 9.5 Receiving Yards — 10/11

Suggested stake: 1pt

This is another “one play” line, and Valdes-Scantling has already shown the exact profile you want late in the season: 19 yards and a TD vs Miami, 21 at Cleveland, and 34 vs Baltimore. He doesn’t need heavy volume — just one completed downfield route — and playoff defences that clamp down underneath can actually open up these secondary deep shots off play-action. The forecast for Pittsburgh is cold but dry, which is a decent setup for at least one designed shot rather than a game wrecked by rain. At 10/11, this looks like value if he stays in the rotation.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 68%, so the odds of 10/11 with bet365 gives us a Positive EV of 29% on this play. 

Key stats

Recent best yardage games: 19, 21, 34 (including a TD vs MIA)
2025 season: 14 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD