We've picked out four betting tips using our Positive EV Tool for Saturday's playoff clash between the Broncos & Bills.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for Saturday night's NFL Playoff clash betwen the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos.
Tip 1: Dawson Knox Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Suggested stake: 0.75 unit
Knox is clearing this line often enough to justify evens, and the recent form is the key: he has 329 receiving yards over his last 10 games, including spike weeks like 93 vs Cincinnati and 37 at New England. His 2025 season line (36 catches, 417 yards) shows he’s still a meaningful part of Buffalo’s passing mix even alongside Dalton Kincaid. The matchup also makes sense: Denver have allowed 1,015 receiving yards to tight ends this season, so there’s room for TE production in the middle of the field. With Buffalo monitoring WR health (Gabe Davis left the last game with a knee issue), Knox’s involvement can tick up in two-TE and red-zone packages.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 62%, so the odds of 10/11 with betway gives us a Positive EV of 18% on this play.
Key stats
329 rec yds last 10 games
Season: 36 rec, 417 yds, 4 TD
Broncos allowed 1,015 TE receiving yards
Tip 2: Troy Franklin Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Suggested stake: 0.75pts
Franklin has grown into Denver’s clear downfield playmaker and finished the regular season with 65 catches, 709 yards and 6 TDs, so 20.5 is well below his typical involvement. He’s also shown recent ceiling, posting 85 yards vs Green Bay and 66 vs Cleveland in the last month, which is exactly what you want for a modest yardage line. The H2H trend is a positive: Franklin hit Buffalo for a 43-yard TD the last time these teams met in the playoffs (Jan 2025). In a playoff game where Denver will need explosive plays to keep pace with Josh Allen, Franklin profiles as the most likely Bronco to cash an over on limited volume.
Key stats
Season: 65 rec, 709 yds, 6 TD
Recent spike games: 85, 66 rec yds
43-yard TD vs Bills (Jan 2025 playoffs)
Midnite
Tip 3: Josh Allen Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
Suggested stake: 0.75 unit
The under here has a statistical case: Allen averaged 34.1 rushing yards per game in 2025, which sits below 37.5. Denver have also been one of the better teams at keeping quarterbacks in check on the ground which matters for a scramble-driven prop. Allen is obviously capable of blowing any rushing line up, but playoff game-plans can also tilt towards protecting the franchise QB and taking the easy completions if lanes aren’t clean. With conditions forecast dry and not overly windy, Buffalo don’t need to manufacture as many QB-run solutions.
Key stats
Allen 2025: 579 rush yds (34.1 per game)
Broncos kept QB rushing production relatively low this year
Tip 4: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown
Suggested stake: 0.5 unit
Kincaid is the kind of playoff TD punt that makes sense at 3/1 because he’s not reliant on high volume — he’s a seam/red-zone matchup piece with strong chunk-play ability (39 catches, 571 yards) and 5 TDs in 2025. If Buffalo are a little lighter at wide receiver (Gabe Davis’ knee issue is one to monitor), Kincaid’s end-zone involvement can rise because Buffalo are comfortable calling tight-end concepts in scoring areas. Denver’s defence is excellent overall, which is why the price is attractive rather than short, but that also increases the likelihood Buffalo lean on quick middle-field answers near the goal line.
Key stats
Season: 39 rec, 571 yds, 5 TD
Potential WR injury boosts TE TD equity
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Bet Builder Tip
Our Bills vs Broncos Bet Builder Tip is:
Dawson Knox - 20+ Receiving Yards
Troy Franklin - 20+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid - Anytime Touchdown
The builder pays 9/1 with bet365 at the time of publishing. 0.25pt stake advised.
