We've picked out three best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool for the AFC Championship match between the Patriots & Broncos.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for Sunday's AFC Championship match between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey Over 7.5 Receiving Yards — 10/11
Suggested stake: 1pt
This is effectively a “one catch” line for Humphrey, who has cleared 7.5 yards in four of his last five games with a reception, including 23 yards at Kansas City and a 3–42–TD outing vs Green Bay. His postseason role has grown with Denver dealing with wideout issues (Troy Franklin’s hamstring has been a talking point all week), and the Broncos have shown they’ll take shots to him in big spots — he scored on a deep ball in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo. With Denver now starting Jarrett Stidham (Bo Nix OFS), expect more “get it out” throws where a single intermediate completion cashes this quickly.
Key stats
2025 season: 13 rec, 156 yds
Last 5 games: 107 receiving yards
TD catch in Divisional Round
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Hunter Henry Anytime TD — 2/1
Suggested stake: 0.5pts
Henry remains New England’s most obvious red-zone mismatch, finishing the regular season with 60 catches, 768 yards and 7 TDs, and he’s been heavily involved near the goal line. The concern is volume — he managed just 1 catch for 5 yards in the Divisional Round — but that’s exactly why the price is 2/1 rather than odds-on. Denver’s pass rush can force quicker reads, and tight ends are often the “answer” in playoff game-plans when QBs don’t want to hold the ball.
Key stats
2025 season: 7 TDs
1 catch, 5 yards last game (Divisional Round)
22 red-zone targets
Marvin Mims Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions — 17/20
Suggested stake: 1pt
Mims’ floor has risen sharply at the perfect time: he caught all 8 targets for 93 yards and a TD in Denver’s Divisional Round win over Buffalo, showing genuine featured usage when the game tightened. With Bo Nix now out and Stidham under center, Denver are more likely to lean into shorter, higher-percentage throws, which generally helps reception overs more than yardage overs. He also saw steady involvement late in the regular season (three straight games of 3+ catches from Weeks 15–17), so the 2.5 line isn’t purely riding one playoff spike.
Key stats
Divisional Round: 8 rec, 93 yds, TD
Weeks 15–17: 4, 3, 3 receptions
2025 season: 37 receptions
