We've picked out four betting tips using our Positive EV Tool for Sunday's playoff clash between the Patriots v Texans.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for Saturday night's NFL Playoff clash betwen the Patriots v Texans.
Tip 1: CJ Stroud - Over 34.5 Longest Completion - 1pt
Best odds of 23/20 at Boyle Sports while publishing.
C.J. Stroud has shown a strong tendency to produce big plays downfield, making the Over 34.5 Longest Completion a compelling pick. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded this mark in six outings, including two of his three career playoff appearances, highlighting his ability to deliver under pressure. Stroud is enjoying a career-high completion percentage of 64.5%, which reflects both accuracy and confidence in his passing game.
EV Eagle supports this trend, with an AI probability of 78.98% suggesting a high likelihood of success, while the implied probability sits at 46.51%, indicating value for bettors. The expected value (EV) of 69.81% further reinforces the upside of taking the Over, making it a statistically backed choice for those looking to capitalise on Stroud’s downfield passing ability.
Tip 2: Drake Maye - Over 34.5 Longest Completion - 1pt
Best odds of 17/20 at William Hill while publishing.
Drake Maye has exceeded 34.5 yards on his longest pass in 7 of his last 10 games, showing a strong tendency to connect on deep throws. This trend is reinforced by an AI probability of 72.93%, well above the implied probability of 54.05%, giving a positive expected value of 34.92%. These numbers suggest Maye is likely to hit this mark again in the upcoming matchup..
Tip 3: Drake Maye – Over 216.5 Passing Yards
Best odds of 10/11 at bet365 while publishing.
BB Explanation: Maye has surpassed 216.5 passing yards in 8 of his last 10 games, including 268 yards in his most recent outing, proving his consistency through the air. The AI model assigns a 68% probability, higher than the market’s implied probability of 52.38%, creating an expected value of 29.81%. Given his recent form, Maye looks well-positioned to clear this passing benchmark once more.
Midnite
Tip 4: Cade Stover – Over 1.5 Receptions
Best odds of 11/10 at Virgin Bet while publishing.
Cade Stover has recorded more than 1.5 receptions in 5 of his last 10 games and has also achieved this mark in both playoff appearances of his career. The AI probability sits at 60.43%, exceeding the implied probability of 47.17% and offering an expected value of 28.11%. This shows Stover is a reliable target, making this BB leg a solid pick for today.
Tip 5: Houston Texans – Win Market - 1pt
Best odds of 8/5 at AK Bets while publishing.
The Houston Texans are in sensational form, making the Win Market tip a strong pick. They have won all 10 of their last 10 games, showing remarkable consistency and reliability that translates well into betting confidence. Historically, they have also performed well against the Patriots, winning four of the last five encounters, further strengthening their case.
Current odds offer good value, particularly when combined with the AI probability of 48% and an implied probability of 38.46%, suggesting that the market may be underestimating them slightly. With an expected value of 24.8%, backing the Texans in the win market is supported both by their recent form and historical head-to-head performance, making it a statistically justified betting opportunity.
