2023 World Series Odds: How Does Carlos Correa Signing Affect World Series Odds?
2023 World Series Odds: How Does Carlos Correa Signing Affect World Series Odds?
Carlos Correa’s decision to spurn the Mets and rejoin the Twins after weeks of negotiations has sent some shockwaves through the markets. It’s obvious that the move has caused the Mets to fall and the Twins to rise on the market. However, the actual changes may surprise.
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2023 World Series Odds
| Team | Odds before Correa decision | Odds after Correa decision |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +700 | +800 |
| Minnesota Twins | +7000 | +4000 |
Sportsbooks don’t think that the Mets losing out on Correa is that big of a deal. The move caused the Mets odds to drop from +700 to +800, a change from a 12.5% chance to an 11.1% chance to win the World Series. The change caused the Yankees to jump them on the market, but the Mets remain tied with the Dodgers as the third most likely to win a World Series.
Meanwhile, the Twins odds shifted dramatically. They were previously given +7000 odds to win the World Series, an implied 1.4% chance to win the World Series. That had them 19th on the market, tied with the Orioles just ahead of the Red Sox and Cubs, +8000.
After Correa signed? Those odds dropped as low as +4000, or an implied 2.4% chance. While that may not seem like a massive change, it’s just 1%, that has moved them from 19th on the market to 15th, tied with the Brewers, just ahead of the Angels, +5500.
The Correa news was wild. With it now official, oddsmakers can finally give their take. They do see Correa as a game changing talent. With him, the Mets were the clear favorites to win the National League and the second favorites to win it all. Without him, they’re equal to the Dodgers and not even the best team in their own city. Meanwhile, the Twins go from below average to a fringe playoff team. Still, his decision isn’t enough to define either team despite what we would have brought.
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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.