Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds: Tigers Now Favored to Trade Tarik Skubal to Los Angeles Dodgers
The Detroit Tigers are now considering trading two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a blockbuster deal. The two sides have been unable to agree on an extension, and it could force them to send the best pitcher in baseball to the best team. Peter Alexis analyzes the chances of a earth-shattering trade in this Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds as of December 10th.
Peter Alexis - December 10, 2025, 2:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadTarik Skubal Next Team Odds: Will Detroit Tigers Trade Superstar Pitcher to Dodgers Amid Negotiation Standstill?
Tarik Skubal has become the crown jewel of the MLB pitching world, and the league is treating him accordingly. At just 29 and one year away from free agency, Skubal enters 2025 as arguably the best pitcher in baseball, a back to back American League Cy Young Award winner whose blend of power and precision is unmatched.
He averaged 97.6 mph on his fastball this past season and has touched an almost unbelievable 102.6 mph, making him one of the hardest throwers in the sport. But unlike many pure velocity arms, Skubal pairs it with elite command, carving hitters with ease and posting a combined 31-10 record and a 2.30 ERA over the last two years.
Detroit’s resurgence into relevance is directly linked to Skubal’s rise, and for a long time it appeared the Tigers would do whatever it took to keep their ace. Their internal confidence earlier this week had him as high as a 75 percent favorite to remain with Detroit heading into his final season before free agency. But the winter meetings in Orlando have shifted the landscape dramatically.
The Dodgers, flush with money and momentum after winning back to back World Series titles, are pushing hard for the league’s best arm. As of Wednesday, December 10, Los Angeles sits as the 51 percent favorite to land Skubal according to Kalshi, and insiders noted that a trade framework is already in place awaiting approval.
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Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds
Team | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 51% |
Stays with Detroit Tigers | 40% |
New York Mets | 22% |
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Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds Breakdown
Los Angeles Dodgers: 51% Chance
There is no clearer message in baseball than a contender adding elite pitching, and there is no place more synonymous with chasing championships than Los Angeles. Skubal, who has dominated individually, is undoubtedly aware of the value of rings. While he has collected back to back Cy Youngs, the Dodgers have collected back to back titles, and players often remember championships more fondly than personal awards when their careers conclude. LA recently poached Edwin Díaz from the Mets, reinforcing their all in approach to securing a third straight title.
The Dodgers also possess the trade capital Detroit covets. With a deep farm system and an ownership group that does not blink at major financial commitments, they have both the prospect depth and the financial power to make this deal happen. The reports from Tigers insiders that the structure of a trade is already in place sent the Kalshi odds skyrocketing to 80 percent late Tuesday before correcting back to 51 percent due to low market liquidity and the natural volatility of this event. Even still, the Dodgers remain the clear frontrunner, and the momentum appears to be shifting strongly in their direction.
Stay with Detroit Tigers: 40% Chance
The Tigers still have a meaningful 40 percent chance to keep their superstar for one more year, but the calculus is changing. Detroit fears losing Skubal for nothing next winter, and with his value at an all time peak, the incentive to trade him now is strong.
While the franchise had previously hoped to strike an extension, the tone around the negotiations has cooled, and Detroit’s front office seems more open than ever to entertaining offers. Keeping him would allow Detroit one final attempt to contend behind their ace, but the risk is obvious: if Skubal’s heart is set on Los Angeles, the Tigers could be left empty handed in 12 months.
New York Mets: 22% Chance
Lurking behind the two main contenders is the New York Mets at 22 percent, a team with both the money and the desperation to pull off a blockbuster. Owner Steve Cohen has deep pockets, but he already watched Edwin Díaz and Pete Alonso walk away this offseason.
That creates the possibility that Cohen is preparing a major splash to reset the narrative. The Mets have the resources to compete with Los Angeles on both trade packages and long term contracts, but at this moment they are more of a lurking threat than a direct challenger. If the Dodgers framework collapses, the Mets could move quickly.
MLB ODDS
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