NBA Trade Deadline Odds: Will Ja Morant, Giannis Antetokoumpo Get Traded Before Thursday's Deadline?
The NBA trade deadline is just hours away, and there have already been massive trades with James Harden and Anthony Davis. Could Ja or Giannis be on the move today? Peter Alexis breaks down the NBA trade deadline odds for most major stars in the last moments of Thursday, February 5th.
Peter Alexis - February 5, 2026, 8:20 AM EST
4 Minute ReadNBA Trade Deadline Odds: Will Ja Morant, Giannis Antetokoumpo Get Traded Before Thursday's Deadline?
The NBA trade deadline has arrived, and the final hours are always where chaos lives. Front offices across the league have spent weeks laying groundwork for deals, but history shows the biggest shocks often come just before the buzzer. With the clock ticking toward 3 p.m. ET today, the betting markets are reacting in real time to rumors, leverage plays, and last-minute negotiations that could reshape the playoff picture.
Several blockbuster moves have already shaken the landscape. James Harden and Anthony Davis were both dealt in headline-grabbing trades, signaling that contenders are willing to gamble and rebuilding teams are ready to pivot. The Memphis Grizzlies trading Jaren Jackson Jr. earlier this week only fueled speculation that more stars could be on the move. Still, as the deadline approaches, uncertainty is beginning to fade for some of the biggest names on the board.
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NBA Trade Deadline Odds
Player | Trade Chance |
|---|---|
Daniel Gafford | 68% |
Benedict Mathurin | 65% |
Ja Morant | 57% |
Michael Porter Jr. | 32% |
Domantas Sabonis | 20% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 22% |
NBA Trade Deadline Odds Breakdown
Ja Morant: 57% Chance Bet on the NBA Trade Deadline with Kalshi Here
Morant has been the most volatile name in this market for weeks, and his odds still sit at the top of the board. Memphis’ decision to move Jackson signaled a potential reset, naturally placing Morant at the center of speculation. But as deadline day arrives, momentum appears to be cooling. Deals involving franchise guards are extremely difficult to complete in the final hours, and without a late surge of rumors, his probability is likely to drift downward as time expires.
Michael Porter Jr: 32% Chance Bet on the NBA Trade Deadline with Kalshi Here
Porter is no longer the complementary scorer from Denver’s title run. After being moved to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he has taken on a starring role on a team that has struggled badly all season. Brooklyn sits at 13-36, nearly tripling losses to wins, despite Porter averaging over 25 points per game and producing at an All-Star level offensively.
That disconnect makes him one of the more logical deadline candidates. A rebuilding team holding a high-scoring wing often looks to flip production into future assets, and Brooklyn may decide there is little value in keeping a star scorer through a lost season.
Domantas Sabonis: 20% Chance Bet on the NBA Trade Deadline with Kalshi Here
Sabonis has hovered in the middle tier of probabilities, reflecting mild league interest without real traction. Teams value his production and durability, but deadline trades usually prioritize wings or guards who shift playoff matchups. Unless a late injury or desperation move changes the equation, his chances mirror the broader trend of stars becoming less likely to move as the clock winds down.
Giannis Antetokoumpo: 22% Chance Bet on the NBA Trade Deadline with Kalshi Here
Giannis has hovered over the trade landscape for months, with speculation stretching back to the summer when the Knicks made a serious push to pry him away from Milwaukee. Reports of frustration and quiet trade requests have surfaced multiple times throughout the year, only to cool off or be walked back when no deal materialized.
That cycle has defined this market. The intrigue is constant, but concrete movement never follows. As deadline day arrives, the falling probability reflects that reality. A Giannis trade still feels possible in theory, but far more likely in the offseason than in the final frantic hours of February.
NBA ODDS
